The Shift of the Policy Towards FDI in European Union: Determinants and Challenges

The Shift of the Policy Towards FDI in European Union: Determinants and Challenges http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eis.1.14.27556 Since 2016, a change in the policy on foreign direct investment (FDI) can be observed in the European Union. This change was significantly influenced by global processes, which resulted in a particular interest in direct investments carried out by transnational corporations from China, India or Russia. In particular, countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, observed a significant increase in the number of mergers and acquisitions of domestic enterprises in 2010-2016. Therefore, in 2018 the process of creating a European Screening Mechanism was initiated, which entered into force in March 2019. At the same time, at the end of 2019, the outbreak of a COVID-19 virus pandemic stopped the process of further globalization by breaking global supply chains, and by restricting the flow of goods, people and capital.

Introduction
Submitted 06/2020 Accepted for publication 07/2020 The Shift of the Policy Towards FDI in European Union: Determinants and Challenges

Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk
The European Union has always been at the centre of investors' attention in terms of investing capital. The entry of foreign capital from a third country in the form of FDI means free access to the common market, i.e. employees, technologies, know-how but also enterprises. Therefore, foreign capital seeks to enter the European market in order to be able to benefit from the absorption of resource. On the other hand, the progressing globalization, and in particular the development of technology and information, significantly influenced the growing interest of countries in the inflow of investments in the form of FDI. Regional economic integration was conducive to capital integration, and incoming FDI began to be seen as a significant benefit for the host economy.
Regardless, globalization seems to have peaked in recent years. UNCTAD calls the period of recent years the "slowbalization" period. The term is currently widely used to depict the meaning the period when globalization loses its dynamics, which was observed in the scope of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment or trade. All these elements began to shrink in relation to their share in GDP. Growing tension, and even trade war on the US-China line, are adding more pieces to the puzzle. Staring from 2016 World Investment Report underlined that FDI lost its momentum. The rate of the expand of the international production by Multinational Entities (MNEs) has slowed down (WIR, 2017). Some of the experts declare that the world economy shall forget about globalisation and slowbalization will strongly arise from regional integration and globalisation (Kapellian, 2020).
The turn of 2019/2020 is the last factor that changes the global situation, because of the pandemic outbreak. The emergence of a global pandemic, which significantly affected the functioning of the global economy, meant that economic relations, and including the area of FDI, will no longer be the same. UNCTAD reported in March 2020 that FDI flows in 2020-2021 will be reduced by 30-40% instead of 5-15% as reported at the beginning. Transnational corporations felt a drop in sales, and were forced to revise their financial forecasts. The industries that are hit hardest were: the raw materials industry 1 , airlines, and the automotive industry (UNCTAD 2020).
The purpose of the article is to identify and describe the factors that significantly influenced changes in the European Union's policy towards foreign direct investment, and to discuss these changes. The article will analyse the phenomenon of foreign direct investment in the EU in recent years. The observed inflow of FDI to the EU caused a specific reactions in each of member states, which will be discussed in this article. The second topic to be analysed will be possible consequences of the outbreak of COVID-19 in the area of EU policy. This article falls within the recent research trend on foreign direct investment, in the context of the changing global environment as a result of a pandemic. What's more, the article may bring new voice to discussion in the area of policies towards FDI, formulated by countries and the European Union during the period of return to growth and building economic resilience to shocks. The research methods used in this article are analysis of statistical data to, and analysis of official documents related to the policy of the European Union in the field of foreign direct investment.

Why foreign direct investment are important?
Foreign direct investment has a significant impact on the host country's equipment in the area of production, in particular: capital, technology and employment (Salamaga 2013, 22;Lehnert, Benmamoun, Zhao 2013;Brenton et al. 2001). Research highlights the positive impact of FDI on European economies in the form of new technologies, market access, job creation or wage increases. The extent of this impact depends on the absorption capacity of the economy (Blomström, Kokko 1998, 247 -277;Crespo, Fontoura 2007;Dachs, Betina 2014, 214-232). Research on the relationship between mergers and acquisitions and the value of exports has shown that FDI complements and supports host country exports (Carril-Caccia, Pavlova: 2018). Umiński (2002) indicates the occurrence of so-called indirect effects, that consist of improving the quality and the modernisation of used techniques, through the process of learning to modify, adapt and develop technologies. In addition, transnational corporations play an important role in regional and local economies. M. Forsgren (2008) listed the following roles: dominant entity, coordinating entity, entity creating and sharing knowledge / technology and the international networks. On a national scale, FDI stimulates GDP (Woźniak 2008 In 2016 and 2018, two controversial events took place on the German market, that were related to attempts of taking over companies by Chinese investors. Germany blocked the second transaction regarding the transmission company. However, the transaction regarding KUKA AG, which was taken over by Midea, has been finalized. At the end of July 2018, Germany blocked the acquisition (Catrain&Theodoropoulou 2019: 1-2).
Global foreign foreign investment has fallen to $ 1.4 billion in 2018. What's more, this decline has been visible since 2015. However, the European Union remains at the forefront of both inward and outward FDI stocks. In 2018, it recorded 31.3% and 37.1% share in global FDI. However, it should be mentioned that this share fell from around 50% in the early 1990s 2 . According to data of EUROSTAT in 2018 the inflow of FDI came in over 25% from U.S.; 18,9% from Great Britain, and 10% from Switzerland. China stood for only 2,8%.
In recent years in the European Union, on the initiative of Italy, France or Great Britain started Why did the European Union introduce the FDI screening mechanism? a discussion on the inflow of foreign investments from third countries. Although only 0.4% of enterprises in the EU are controlled by capital from third countries, they generate around 6% of employment and 11% of value added. In the global economy, a trend has been observed associated with the growing role of FDI inbound developing economies, but also such as Russia and China. In this case, the increasing involvement of capital from these regions in the European Union is particularly visible. The involvement of Chinese capital in the form of FDI in the years 2010-2016 increased 15-fold in the EU (Hanemann, Huotari, Kratz 2019). Despite the fact, that the share constitutes about 2% of incoming FDI (compared to 40% share of the USA), this does not change the fact that the degree of Chinese capital penetration in the European Union is growing dynamically (Bickenbach, Liu 2018, 15-22). At the same time it must be mentioned that this penetration is unequal between MS. The following countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, The Netherlands, Italy and Sweden in 2016 stood for 76% of M&A's in European, whereas the rest of 22 MS represented 24% (Bourgeois 2018, 35).
Nevertheless the key problem for EC was not only the dynamics of engagement of Chinese investors on European market. The rules of the game considering the role of the state in the process of aquring the european companies is questioned by EC. Research carried out for the European Commission in the process of preparing the legal framework for tools controlling the inflow of FDI from third countries indicates that enterprises controlled by foreign capital from outside the EU have a significant share in assets. In 2016, the surveyed enterprises that were capitally dependent on companies from third countries accounted for only 2.8%, but represented approx. 35% of the assets of the surveyed enterprises. Only 9.3% of enterprises with foreign capital are listed on stock exchanges. As much as 45% of the assets of listed companies belonged to companies controlled by capital from third countries, which shows that these companies are relatively larger than European companies. Greenfield investments focused in the following industries in 2017 (EC 2019): _ pharmaceutical and chemical _ electronics, electronic equipment and machinery _ motor vehicles and transport equipment _ gas and electricity _ computers and IT services _ financial and insurance services.
European Commission pointed out the role of the state-owned companies has risen. Fristly, as the entities undertaking standing behind the FDI, but also as a target of third countries investors. The risk that arises form this context is closely connected with the threat of acquiring and controlling critical technologies, infrastructure or sensitive information. It brings a challenge for securing the public order (EC, 2017).

What is FDI Screening Mechanisms?
The idea that the European Commission promoted in the context of work on the control mechanism of the FDI entering Poland has two dimensions. Firstly, the European Union has sought, and continues to follow the course to ensure equal access for investors from third countries to the common European market. Secondly, to introduce such a mechanism that will allow observing and verifying the actions of investors in the common market. The European Union has clearly indicated that it is open, and interested, in the inflow of FDI from third countries, but not at all costs. This process is to serve socio-economic development in the EU, and not pose a threat to public security and order (EC 2017, p. 5). In particular, the European Commission drew attention to the situation when FDI is carried out by enterprises financed from public funds or directly state enterprises, which significantly affects the creation of unequal conditions of competition.
The FDI screening mechanism came into force in 2019. Earlier analysis revealed that 12 out of 28 Member States had a mechanism for monitoring incoming FDIs. EC pointed out, that in march 2020, already 14 countries were using screening mechanism (EC 2020). Most frequently, Member States used provisions for sectors considered strategic, as energy or telecommunications, but there were also provisions with a more horizontal wording, related to maintaining security and public order. The criteria applied refer to both qualitative criteria related to obtaining control over the acquired company, and quantitative criteria related to shares or the number of votes (EC 2017).
The tools used by the Member States are perceived as a manifestation of the restriction on the free movement of capital and freedom of entrepreneurship, as they also involve investors from European Union countries (art. 49 and art. 63 TFEU). At the same time, the laws ensuring security and public order in member states justify the solutions undertaken at the level of individual countries. This is also provided for in the Treaty, which furthermore allows for taking into account proper justification and equal treatment of investors 3 . Thus, they were found to comply with the principles of proportionality of law.
The concept finally presented by the European Commission is significantly different from the provisions in individual Member States. The European Commission has clearly indicated that the operation of this mechanism is to be based on cooperation and exchange of information between Member States. Furthermore, areas that the EU has identified as being of strategic importance, mainly relate to those ensuring security and public order, in particular research in technologically intensive spheres under Horizon 2020, space (GALILEO) or trans-European networks (TENs).
The mechanism itself consists of several tools that can be used by the European Commission or Member States (Cremona 2018: 60): _ Monitoring by the European Commission of incoming FDI, and in particular investments directed to sectors of strategic importance for security and public order, implemented by enterprises controlled by capital from third countries. _ Coordination of the exchange of information between Member States on the situation in the area of ZIB. _ Adapting these regulations to the legal order at Member State level.

New challenges European Union faces in the area of foreign direct investment
Undoubtedly, the European Union's activities in the field of domestic market protection were justified. The growing involvement of Chinese, Russian or Indian capital in European companies and their acquisition in recent years has meant that the EU could not passively watch this phenomenon. The more that a significant part of the Member States had mechanisms for monitoring FDI. For example, in July 2015, the "Act on control of certain investments" came into force in Poland, which provides, first of all, for ex-post control of investors, and secondly, it seems to be insufficient, as it does not apply to foreign investors and generally. Some sources indicate that the role of the Office for Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK), which could monitor investments being carried out in Poland, should be strengthened (Izdebski et al., 2016: 30-31). The Regulation of the Council of Ministers in issued 3.12.18 supplements these activities, which indicates the list of protected companies. They come from the chemical, telecommunications and energy industries (( Dz.U. 31.12.2018(( Dz.U. 31.12. , poz. 2524 Since 2019, more than 35 investments have been notified in the European Union. However, it is now crucial to change the approach to foreign direct investment in the context of the ubiquitous coronavirus pandemic. As previously mentioned, a change in the face of globalization will be of significant importance for further activities in the area of FDI policy. On the one hand, it will face a situation in which the largest enterprises will be weakened and may become the target of acquisitions of enterprises supported by third-country governments. On the other hand, the European economy will suffer from a pandemic. Forecasts predict a contraction in GDP throughout. Preliminary estimates forecast that the first quarter of 2020 in the entire EU will end with a reduced GDP of -2.7% compared to the previous year's quarter (table below).  Table 1 Growth rates of GDP in volume (based on seasonally adjusted data) Source: Eurostat, Preliminary flash estimate for the first quarter of 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ documents/2995521/10294708/2-30042020-BP-EN.pdf/526405c5-289c-30f5-068a-d907b7d663e6 retrieved: 01.06.2020

Pandemic context to policy towards FDI in European Union
Policy towards foreign investment will be one of the key elements in rebuilding the European economy. Currently, changes have been made to the provisions for foreign investors in the European Commission document "Communication from the Commission Guidance to the Member States concerning foreign direct investment and free movement of capital from third countries, and the protection of Europe's strategic assets, ahead of the application of Regulation (EU) 2019/452 (FDI Screening Regulation) 2020 / C 99 I / 01." The issue of guidelines for Member States points precisely to the health sector, which is particularly important for the safety and health of EU citizens in the face of a pandemic. What's more, the message indicates that in transactions involving FDI, one should depart from quantitative approaches to investment assessment, because at the initial stage of development of start-up companies this value may be limited, but the technology and research that FDI affects may be strategic. Furthermore, the regulation setting out the framework for monitoring FDI is extended to all sectors.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the ongoing phenomena of policy towards foreign investors in the EU. On the one hand, support for the inflow of capital that is desired in the European Union in the face of the economic slowdown. On the other hand, seeking to rebuild economic resilience to possible economic shocks creates a wave of protectionism. Due to the fact that Member States are very diverse in terms of incoming FDI, this should be particularly cautious. Countries such as Germany, France and Italy are exposed to dynamic capital penetration from third countries. This applies not only to companies of strategic importance, but also to stable enterprises, important for regional communities in terms of employment or cooperation with suppliers in a given location. In this context, the position of Central and Eastern European countries whose economies still rely on capital inflows in the form of FDI should also be taken into account. The slowdown in the area of foreign investment may result in the emergence of pressure and competition race to attract foreign investment.
To sum up, there are several important elements that give a new context and impose a number of challenges in the area of policy towards foreign investors in the European Union: The European Union should continue to monitor the inflow of foreign investment from third countries in order to be able to react on an ongoing basis in situations where it is taking place in strategic and technologically intensive sectors.
The legal framework related to FDI monitoring in the health sector should become a key element of policies towards foreign investors at Member State level due to the prevailing pandemic.
The European Commission and the Member States should be cautious about foreign investors, because in the process of rebuilding economies, foreign capital, especially for Central and Eastern European economies, is still an important element in the context of job creation, technology flow and foreign trade. So the protectionism is not an answer for the global slowdown.
Limited global flows of foreign direct investment will exert pressure in the process of competing for FDI in countries that have hitherto been attractive in terms of investment placement.
At the same time the ongoing monitoring will create a framework for policy makers to be vigilant for third countries behaviour. Already it is witnessed that after 2016 the dynamics of M&A's by Chinese investors decreased. The actions undertaken by EU brought raised awareness on the MS level.
Due to interrupted global supply chains, foreign investment will be relocated to the European Union, especially in countries open to foreign investors.

Conclusion
The European Union's actions in the area of policy reorientation towards foreign investors are not new on the global stage. Countries such as the USA, Canada and Australia have for many years had a legal framework for controlling FDI in their economies. Due to the complicated legal system in the European Union, the tools proposed by the European Commission are based on cooperation and exchange of information. The emphasis is on the fact that the entry of a foreign investor into one Member State results in unrestricted access to the European common market. Thus, the observed growing number of mergers and acquisitions in the European Union since 2010 has resulted in the adoption of a mechanism for monitoring FDI from third countries in 2019. The reasons for that was rising role of FDI in the form of M&A which in 2010-2016 were highly concentrated in six countries: France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Sweden and Great Britain. The undertaken discussion within EU initiated in 2016 resulted in the rise of the awareness on MS level.
FDI screening mechanism can be considered as a moderate form of protectionism, which focus on the support of countries to prevent from predator investments based on utilization of stateowned entities and focused on the access to key assets and technologies from the EU perspective. The outbreak of pandemic in 2020 it gives a new context. Especially the sector of broadly understood as health, shall be protected to support the public safety and public order in time of unforeseen shocks. Independence of EU and its MS in this area will significantly affect the vulnerability of economy and society to shocks.
The turn of 2019 and 2020 has identified several new challenges facing the European Union as a whole and each Member State. The spectre of economic slowdown, redefining globalization in favour of deepened regional economic integration, interrupted global supply chains contribute to a change in thinking about foreign direct investment. Affected weak industries need protection against uncompetitive takeover practices by state-owned companies from third countries. Strong enterprises will need recapitalization to rebuild their potential. A particularly interesting issue will be the strategy of EU countries which have been actively competing for foreign direct investment such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary so far. The screening mechanism towards FDI in this changing global surrounding will strongly influence the shift in the transmission channels of FDI, which will differ in selected countries. This direction shall be taken into consideration in further research.


BANK RISK EVALUATION THROUGH Z-SCORE MEASURE AND ITS EFFECT ON FINANCIAL HEALTH OF THE INDUSTRY OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY OF KAZAKHSTAN

Studying the systematic risk of the banking industry, as a measure of the financial stability, is one of the options to evaluate how strong is the overall industry’s standings against the systematic risk itself. There are number of studies in related areas for both developed and developing markets. This study is the part of the overall examination of the banking industry performance for the developing transitional economies. With the help of the risk evaluation through the measure of Z-score, we are trying to evaluate the financial health of the institutions and as a whole the industry. This will let us explore the financial standings and the performance of the particular market. The other point is that the examination covers the post-financial crisis period with the certain macroeconomic fluctuations of the endogenous to the industry problems such as devaluation in-between the study coverage timeframe. These impacting factors help us understand the effect of both external and internal shocks affecting the banking industry. The relationship between the financial stability and the overall profitability, as a risk and return relationship with the effects of external factors like crisis and internal macroeconomic shocks as devaluation is the core point of the interest of this particular study. The findings suggest that the size of the bank plays important but negative role in the way bank behaves. It negatively affects the financial health of the bank industry. Overall, the financial stability is very unstable; as the fluctuations of the Z-score over the period of examination is significant, stating only that the transitional economy is very much vulnerable towards both internal and external risks.

Introduction
Economies in transition were always of high interest for the investors and overall worldwide business community (Allen et al., 2013). The reasoning behind the statement is in the opportunities that developed economies see in the new fertile lands. Most of these opportunities occur to be risky and, as a result, have the return rates higher than in the developed markets. The developed economies never stop searching and targeting the new markets. However, majority of the planned economies are usually blocked or partially unreachable to the outside business opportunities. These opportunities are then lost for both of the parties. However, during the later few decades, the changes took place in many of the countries previously blocked (Haselmann et al., 2016). The collapse of the Soviet Union and the transition from planned to market economy in some countries opened up the frontiers and the investors from the entire world streamed into these new lands. The allocation of funds as almost everything else is under the control of the central apparatus in the planned economy countries (Iannotta et al., 2012). This makes the business orientation of the financial institutions in these countries useless. Generally, financial institutions like banks play the role of the engines that are just allocating the funds agreed beforehand with the central government. Hence, the option of the financial intermediaries as obviously the market economy opportunities is not at all the case for these economies as stated by Stiglitz (1994). Nowadays, it is almost thirty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and our interest now lies in the study of how these planned economy countries reacted to the changes in the financial aspect.
Broadly, we concentrate on the examination of the banking industry financial health in the developing market of the transitional economies. We study the opportunities, or as we may call them risks in the view of financial stability and how these factors affect the performance of the whole banking industry. The one feature of the developing markets is the privileged role of the bank. This view is reasonable, as the other institutional options are mostly not available in majority of the transitional economies, as their financial market development is low. Hence, to study the development of the financial streams in transitional markets can be no better than through the study of banking industry.
Our core interest in this particular study is the examination of financial performance and the financial stability of the banking industry of the transitional economy of Kazakhstan. We study the effects of different outside shocks such as the financial crisis and inner macroeconomic challenges like devaluation and their effect on the risk and return of the industry. We cover the local features of the market and therefore include the country specific and industry specific variables into examination. Our hypothesis is that the financial stability (risk) is low when the outside macroeconomic challenges take place and the performance is negatively affected by the same challenges. Additionally, our interest is to study which particular risks are significantly affecting the performance in a negative way and which of them, the other way around, are creating the opportunities.
We use accounting measures of return on assets and different profitability margins to evaluate the effect of financial health of banking sector. Following the literature, the risk is evaluated by financial stability, Z-score. Background The transitional banking industry of Kazakhstan has now been experiencing almost thirty years of independent and a fluctuate history of banking. The industry, common to planned economy standards, has two-tiered banking system, with the regulator at the first line and all the other banks in the second. In the early stages of the transition, the banking practice has not been significantly different compared to the one in a planned economy. However, the outside hits as the financial, Asian and Russian rubble crisis drove out significant number of weak institutions from the market. The number of financial institutions decreased significantly from around 200 to 30 banks Pak (2017), and that is in general a positive signal. To make the industry prosper, many international norms and standards like Basel III (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) have been applied.
In this paper, we use ROA as a measure of performance. The usage of ROA helps define the level of operational performance and it is convenient to cross compare the results of the findings with previous studies. Another measure that is suggested by Abdullah et al. (2014) is Net Interest Margin (NIM), which covers the spread of the interest costs and revenues. The volume of spread directly affects the funding strategy decision-making done by the managers of the banks. As for the risk, we evaluate it through the risk stability measure of the Z-score.
Previous studies mostly examined the periods before the crisis or after it. We contribute to the literature through the evaluation of the risk and return measures of the transitional economy of Kazakhstan both during and afterwards the crisis period. We evaluate Kazakhstani banking industry performance and risk incorporating crisis and devaluation. This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents the literature review. Section 3 describes data and descriptive statistics. Section 4 explains the methodology applied. Section 5 outlines the findings. Section 6 concludes.

Literature review
Existing literature, both theoretical and empirical, states that there is a strong relationship between the financial health and financial stability of the bank industry. We examine several factors and outline them in the next four sections. Our choice stays with four the most significant performance affecting factors such as assets, profitability, funding and regulation.
Assets composition to bank performance The first strand in the literature links bank performance to the asset composition. The examination of the poor performance as a result of the assets that mainly consist of the part of the liabilities (deposits) was studied by Fahlenbrach et al. (2016). The findings of the study suggest that this type of the assets composition needs to be supported by the higher portion of the loan loss reserves (LLP). The expected ratio is to be calculated with respect to the loan growth amount. Following previous studies, we can conclude that the main factor contributing to the low performance as a result of the loan growth development strategy is the inability of the managers of these banks to properly evaluate the extent of this loan growth, therefore, as a result they cannot properly evaluate the risk either. The risk taking attitude through the impact of competition has been examined by Mustafa and Toci (2018). They found that the competition negatively affects the European countries banks' risk taking behavior. However, for non-European counties of the region, the study suggests that the competition positively affects the risk taking behavior. Berger and Bouman (2011) examined the study of the effect of the capital on the bank performance in times of financial crisis. They have suggested that the effect of the bank performance under the expectation of capital changes (increase or decrease) would most likely be different in times of the normal and crisis times of the general economic condition. Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga (2012) examined whether general banking system industry needs to have big banks at all. To evaluate the problem both standard and systemic size of the banks were evaluated. How does the liquidity affects the regulatory capital has been examined by Distinguin et al. (2013). Authors considered both large and small banks, and examined how banks' behavior changes as the capital and liquidity levels increase. Chen et al. (2017) studied the effect of the liquidity risk on the performance. Based on the idea of Chen et al. (2017) and as well numberless other confirmations from the relevant literature such as Sapienza (2012) and Shleifer (1998), the liquidity can be the source for both performance enhancement and quality decrease. Hence, authors state that liquidity risk is the discount for bank profitability and as a result, that can lead to the bad performance.
The Risk effect on Profitability Studying the risk effect on profitability, Bhagat and Bolton (2015) examined the relationship between the size and the risk-taking behavior among different financial institutions. The overall findings of the paper suggest that size increase results in increase in risk taking behavior. Strong corporate governance can optimize risk taking behavior. Diversified financial institutions such as investment banks are more risk oriented in comparison with the banks that are considered commercial banks. Mergaerts and Vennet (2015) have studied the relationship between the business models and the performance in the banking industry with an account of the risk behavior. Their main finding was that European banking business model is efficient because of its diversified approach. Saghi-Zedek (2016) pointed to the importance of the ownership structure as a source of potential risk. Author studied the question of the controlling shareholders, how control in different scenarios can affect the performance. Diversified control chain positively affects the performance. Primarily, the contributing factor is the skills of those newcomers that can contribute to better management of the general project development as suggested by the author.

Effect of funding on performance and risk
The third strand is the effect of funding on the risk and performance of the banking system. The examination of the effect of the western sanctions on the economic union seems to be only a one part of the obstacles on the way of the development for Russian economy as shown by the study of Pak and Kretzschmar (2016). Factors such as credit quality, funding, and bank ownership play important role in performance evaluation as authors stated. Nevertheless, the sanctions create substantial inconveniences in terms of capital market access. Additionally, the authors found that the local banks are having poor ongoing credit quality management that is not contributing positively to the overall development. La Porta et al. (2000) and Micco and Panizza (2004) in their studies have been referring to the importance of the state ownership structure as one of the fundamental factors affecting the availability of the funding. Pak (2017) has studied the business drivers of bank stability in Kazakhstan. Author closely examines the effect of aggressive lending and short term wholesale effect of funding on the financial stability of the Kazakhstani banks. The findings show that the size growth has a negative effect on stability. Pak (2018) studied the impact of the state ownership and business models on the stability of the Eurasian Economic Union banks. Author suggests that ownership is the crucial criteria for the region's banks to survive during the negative exogenous effects like crude oil price decrease. In the study of the relationship between the funding structures and risk, Vazquez and Federico (2012) identified that the banks that are leveraged by the local governments are more likely to fail after the crisis. Authors suggest that regulations in the basis of the Basel III are proposed to be an optimal variant as the solution for the problem; however, the emphasis still has to be made on the improvement of the structural liquidity.

Regulation and supervision
The latest strand in the examination of transitional economies' banking industry performance is the regulation and different norms. Herner et al. (2018) examined the impact of the supervision on the level of the growth, risk taking behavior, volatility, sensitivity towards the downturns in the industry and the levels of the profitability. Authors identified that the supervised banks happen to have more benefits in comparison with the banks, which are not supervised. They state that the higher supervisory actions contribute to efficient business for the banks and make the managers behave within the interests of the company. Of course, there is an option that supervisory actions might not lead to the expected results, as the actions on the part of the supervisors can be not efficient in general. Beltratti and Stulz (2010) studied the reasons for different performance of similar banks. Stock returns of the largest banks all over the world were examined. Authors have suggested that the restrictions imposed on the banks can help them perform better. Moreover, a too much benevolence of management towards the shareholders, especially before the crisis, resulted in poor performance during the crisis itself. Additionally, they examined the effect of the regulatory factors in the banking business industry such as implementation of the standards as Basel III and introduction of the international capital standards. Authors found no direct effect of the imposed standards and introduction of regulatory frameworks on the efficiency of the banks under examination. Laevin and Levine (2008) have studied the relationship between the risk taking behavior and regulation with particular emphasis on the ownership structure of these banks. The core idea of the authors was related to the understanding that risk regulation is strongly related to the ownership structure. Hence, the examination of the relationship between managers and the shareholders is the one we can call central to the study. Therefore, regulation as it is can have different effect on banks depending on their corporate structure.

Sample
We collected the data through local statistical agencies and resources of National Bank of Kazakhstan. To satisfy the international standards, audited accounting data with the International Financial Reporting Standards, has been acquired from Bloomberg financial resource agency. Table 1 shows the descriptive statistics of the variables that have been used in the study. The measure for the risk, Z-score, has a mean value of 10.09. Overall suggestion is that the higher is the value of the Z-score the lower is the risk and the stronger the position of financial stability. The interesting point is that both NIM and ROA show approximately the same positive results of 17 and 16 percent, respectively. Nontraditional income generation shows that Kazakhstani banks are very much concentrated on the earnings that are not industry oriented. More than 50 percent comes from the commissions and fees. Previously, in the study of Pak and Kreschmar (2016), it was suggested that the proportion of the non-traditional income is high for Kazakhstani banks, especially before the crisis times. As for the equity, return is quite high, most likely suggesting that the owners of the banks are directly controlling this particular measure in means to earn higher returns. This suggestion goes in line with the idea that the reformers of the political and economic tendencies in Kazakhstani financial market are the same subjects. Debt composition portion of the financial intermediary is quite standard for the developing markets, and is not very efficient especially in Kazakhstan. This way of funding is expensive enough and suggest only one fifth of the overall composition. The findings of the macroeconomic variables in the model shows the results that are very close to the true values of the economy in the examination period. Real GDP shows an overall of 3, 8 percent growth and inflation rate is equal to 8, 4 percent.

Outcome variables
We use Z-score as a proxy of financial stability. Z-score is calculated as the sum of return of the assets and equity over assets divided by the standard deviation for every bank i at time t. Since we are covering the quarterly data, the standard deviation is calculated following the example of Delis et al. (2012) over rolling window for the calculated next three quarters.
We examine the value of the Z-score over the ten-year period from 2008 up to 2017 quarterly. The distressed years of the crisis (2008-2010) have negative signs suggesting that the financial stability was very low and overall banking industry suffered during the period. On the other hand, the level of the Z-score was quite high aftermath the crisis what is in general not as good sign as it might seem.
That kind of fluctuations suggest that the financial support was given for the survival of the distressed banks from the government and it was not the inner result of good modeling of the management or adequate business application. In general, the above figure only says that the banking industry during the period of the examination as a measure of the financial stability shows that it was very vulnerable and not consistent enough to take the blows of the changes of the macroeconomic conditions of the whole economy. Those negative signs, partially, are explained by the devaluation policies applied in the country.
Net interest margin (NIM) and return on assets utilized as determinants of the performance of the banking industry in Kazakhstan. As was stated by Abdullah et al. (2014), ROA covers the operational performance of the banks and examines the scope of the level of the assets invested by the bank. On the other hand, NIM measures the level of the spread between the interest revenues and costs. It helps management decide where from they can have the cheapest source of funding.
Variables Table 2 shows the list of dependent and independent variables. Most of the variables examined in the study are specific to the banking industry. Other variables such as macroeconomic factors have exogenous effect. In addition, crisis and devaluation are included into the examination that might lead to the shift of sensitivities of the variables during and after the events. Dietrich et al. (2014) suggested that in studies of performance examination, the risk must be evaluated as both a systematic and specific to the bank risk. Therefore, following Fama (1969) studies of systemic and idiosyncratic risk for the financial institutions, we include overall industry risk into analysis. Apart from that, following the study of Baghat et al. (2015), we estimate bank specific risk through liquidity examination and credit loans growth over the period of study.

Methodology
Following the previous studies of Altunbas et al. (2014), Dietrich et al. (2014) and Pak (2017) we evaluate the risk measure of the financial stability, Z-score, against specific to the industry and macroeconomic variables. The equation model goes in the next form: All the variables are specific to the the bank i and to the outlined timeframe t. C stands for the intercept for bank i and error term stands for e.
Some previous studies as Pak (2017) and Dietrich et al. (2014) were using no lag effect. They have reasoned it as a simultaneous response of the managers to the increased level of risk. However, this can lead to the endogeneity problem of the variables. Hence, we opt to use the lagged variables for right hand side of the equation. There are number of different criterion for choosing optimal length for lags such as Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Root Mean Square Error and Hannan-Quinn (HQ) criterion. The function for the criteria selection differs and therefore can lead to conflicting results. The number of observations in the study permits us to apply any of the above-mentioned criterion selection (Konishi and Kitagawa, 2008). Both Akaike and Schwarz information criterions of the VAR order selection suggests taking at least one lag. In addition, it always the case that bank operates in the conditions of where the industry is heavily affected by the macroeconomic events, if they take place. In our case, we consider both crisis and devaluation effects. Over the latest two decades, Kazakhstan has experienced two devaluations that was allowed by the National bank. Despite the fact that previous devaluations were more severe, these two were significant as well with currency devaluation percentages of 24 and 19, respectively. We use dummy variable to account for macroeconomic shocks in the model. Devaluation effect account for the first two quarters of year 2009 and after year 2014 for another two years. Crisis years take the value of "1" all quarters for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 and "0" otherwise. As was suggested by Pak (2017), crisis years are taken based on the start of default of the Lehman Brother investment banking in 2008. Haussmann specification test suggests Pooled effect model of the Panel ordinary least squares regression method as the optimal methodology to evaluate bank profitability. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test suggested that not all the variables are stationary at levels. First difference was applied to the Size and Liquidity Risk variables only. Table 3 represents the correlation coefficients between the measures of risk and profitability for the Kazakhstani banks. Table 3 represents the correlation coefficients between the measures of risk and profitability for the Kazakhstani banks. Following Pak (2017), correlation coefficients are in the next values: 0 -0.2 scarcely correlated, 0.2 -0.4 weakly correlated, 0.4 -0.6 correlated, 0.6 -1 strongly correlated.

Findings
Examining the correlation coefficients, we can observe that Return on Assets has weak correlation with Commission and Fees as well as weak correlation with Non-interest Income and Net Interest Margin. Weak correlation between these factors suggests that assets are more correlated with factors that are more fundamental rather than with factors that are contributing weakly to the overall profitability of the banks. However, the correlation of ROA with other factors is even smaller. We can probably attribute that to the poor financial development of the industry as a whole that makes factors such as ROA imperceptible to majority of the factors. Z-score is highly and negatively correlated with Loan Growth. It comes in line with most of the literature and theoretical background (Pak, 2017, Dietrich et al. 2014). The higher is the volume of the credit loans, the higher is the proportion of the loans distributed with poor quality of loan takers. Hence, this tendency, eventually leads to the overall worse industry performance. In addition, we can see that NIM is positively correlated with Non-interest Income and Investments. It rather can be reasoned as that the funding strategy is highly dependent on the investments, what is rational. Alternatively, it can be explained as that NIM has weak overall effect on the industry performance. We refer to the second explanation, since the investments in our particular study are taken as the portion of overall investment divided by trading securities. The positive and significant correlation between Credit Risk and Liquidity Risk needs no explanation. Table 4 shows the regression coefficients of the risk measurement model for the sample of Kazakhstani banks.   Table 4 shows the regression coefficients of the risk measurement model for the sample of Kazakhstani banks. Significance levels of the probability values are indicated as the next: ***, **, * significant at 1, 5 and 10 % levels, respectively.
As we can observe from results, the size of the bank has negative effect on the measure of risk indicating that the size presuppose the negative tendencies on the hand of the managers of the banks neglecting the obvious risks that arise before them. Relying too much on the size and being a strategic player might accumulate the problems for the big sized banks. This result is in line with the results of Pak (2017). Liquidity risk has a positive relationship with Z-score, meaning that lower liquidity increases the risk level. As expected, the loan growth has negative effect on the level of risk as stated in many previous studies. Generally, as the volume of the loans increases the quality of them decreases and eventually increasing the risk level. Table 5 shows the regression coefficients of the profitability measures of the model for the sample of Kazakhstani banks. Note -compiled by authors based on the data collected from Bloomberg financial resource agency Table 5 shows the regression coefficients of the profitability measures of the model for the sample of Kazakhstani banks. Significance levels of the probability values are indicated as the next: ***, **, * significant at 1, 5 and 10 % levels, respectively.
Based on the results for ROA and NIM, coefficients suggest quite different conclusions. Return on assets is negatively affected by the crisis. However, the effect on net interest margin is insignificant. Both measures are negatively dependent on the credit risk. Return on assets is increasing as non-traditional income generation increases. NIM spread between the interest revenue and cost increases as the portion of non-traditional income generation increases. This is in line with the study of Huizinga et al. (2010) who states that the probability of the default increases as the banks increase the share of the non-traditional activities of the assets side. On the other side, the overall effect of neither commissions nor fees is significant for both the ROA and NIM indicators. Debt portion has positive and significant effect on the ROA. What is interesting is that devaluation effect has a positive impact on both profitability measures. One explanation to that can be that most of the deposits in the time of the examination were held in proportion of almost 70 to 30 percent of foreign to local currencies, respectively. Crisis has insignificant but negative relationship with ROA. It can be explained as a result of state support of the banks. Macroeconomic measure of GDP is negatively related with both NIM and ROA. This is an unexpected finding, which generally goes against the economic theory and probably can be explained with the specific banking behavior; when GDP grows, banks tend to behave more in a risk-taking manner. Riskier projects have higher probability of failure. That can negatively affect the performance. Inflation has positive relationship with both profitability measures. However, since we calculate inflation based on the consumer price indices, the results can be biased. Price as an indicator holds too many information within itself. Hence, it can be biased to other variables.

Conclusion and contribution
Based on the quarterly data for the Kazakhstani banks for the period of 2008 -2017 years, this study examines the level of risk and return, evaluating through during and post crisis industry performance. The overall results suggest that performance is affected by size of the banks. The bigger the bank size, the higher is the risk of low performance, and the higher is the proportion of credit risk. The effect of global crisis on the performance is negative. This is in line with our expectations and most of the studies (Altunbas et al. 2011, Allen et al. 2013, Frederick et al. 2015. Devaluation effect has positive impact on the profitability measures suggesting that the proportion of the foreign to local currency composition within the examination period was significant. The fluctuations of the Z-score in the ten-year period can only suggest that the industry is quite vulnerable to the changes in the macroeconomic environment. Kazakhstani banks still rely more on traditional banking strategies of loans and deposits. Non-traditional activities as differentiated investment strategies are not significant in their proportions.
The findings of the work clearly address the weakness of the financial stability of Kazakhstani banking system. Low development of the financial intermediaries suggest slender choice of funding. Parental anxiety on the side of the government about the overall stand of the industry and market players create weak-willed financial institutions and plant corrupted managers. The fluctuations of the risk measure of the industry over the period of examination goes in line with macroeconomic shocks such as devaluation of local currency and worldwide financial crisis. We suggest that should government keep funding weak institutions, patch up their financial gaps and persist overlooking poor credit management, the Kazakhstani financial outlook is very likely continue to be negative. Moreover, should this tendency continue, most likely the local financial crisis will take place. Our proposal is that Kazakhstani banking business managers together with local government must consider the best fitting free market conditions for the local industry. Create equal market conditions for the state, foreign and private banks. This will stimulate integration from international community and outflow weak players off the market of transitional economy. As a result, an overall economy stand will get closer to developed country standards. Eventually, these financially necessary changes will happen one way or another. The only point is that it will take place by the conscious will or a desperate need. Therefore, the following paper suggests new aspects for the further research of the banking industry, especially in the areas of ownership, regulation and stability as these are the new challenges that the field is already experiencing.


The Production of Jam from African Star Apple (Alasa) and Honey

The main objective of this study was to produce jam using Alasa and honey. Experimental study design and sensory analysis techniques were applied. The study population consists of students and staff of the Hospitality Management department of Takoradi technical University. A sample size of 65 was purposively or conveniently selected. Two forms of data obtained primarily from the primary source include samples of raw materials with ingredients used and sensory form feedback obtained from the respondents. The raw materials were sourced locally.  The data was analyzed using SPSS and Microsoft Excel 2013. The paper discovered that majority of the respondents know Alasa and have ever consumed it. Also, most of the respondents expressed their preference for Alasa with reasons pointing to its great natural taste and health benefits. In respect of the specific objectives, majority of the respondents accepted that jam can be produced from Alasa and honey given its rich source of protein and medicinal value. Majority agreed that jam made from Alasa and honey would be accepted in the Ghanaian community and expressed their desire for it to be produced both in local and global markets. The paper concludes with recommendations among other things that diabetic patients should try and patronize Alasa and honey jam, people should patronize Alasa and honey jam in other to introduce varieties to breakfast dishes, research into the health benefits of Alasa and honey jam should be encouraged and industries should produce Alasa and honey jam in large quantities after research uncovers its health benefits. Keywords : Alasa, Experimental design,  Honey, Jam, Production, Sensory analysis. DOI: 10.7176/FSQM/101-06 Publication date: September 30 th 2020

INTRODUCTION
Jams are solid gels made from fruit pulp or juice, sugar and added pectin. They can be made from single fruits or a combination of fruits. The fruit content should be at least 40%. In mixed fruit jams the first-named fruit should be at least 50% of the total fruit added (Fellows, Franco & Rios, 2006). Jam is a product made by boiling fruit and sugar to a thick consistency without preserving the shape of the fruit. Jams are bread dressings served alone or together with margarine or fresh butter. The major consumers are pastries, households, hotels, schools and military camps.
For decades, jams are made from a variety of fruits with high pectin contents and some vegetables such as mango, pineapple, orange, berries carrot and pumpkin. They are sometimes referred to collectively as preserves. The products are typically luxury items that are purchased by consumers in affluent urban areas (Fellows, Franco & Rios, 2006).
Alasa or Abiu also known as the African Star Apple" and scientifically called Chrysophyllum Albidum is a tropical fruit that contain high amount of pectin, making it suitable for the production of jam. Alasa is an attractive, bright yellow fruit with a sweet, caramel flavoured, creamy-white pulp. It is produced on a small tree which grows well and flowers and fruits prolifically in north Queensland and around Darwin. The fruit is available 8 months of the year in Australia and has a good potential for commercial development. (Crane and Balerdi, 2016) Alasa (Abiu) originates from the Amazon basin in South America where it may have been cultivated for some thousands of years by the Indians of the region. However, only in very recent years has it been 'discovered' and grown commercially outside its home range. It is grown to a limited extent in Florida, USA, in northern Australia and two years ago in Malaysia. (Love and Paul, 2001) Alasa is spherical in shape about three centimeters in diameter with either 4, 5 or 6 seeds. It is called "star" because a cross-section cut reveals a star-like shape in the inner portion of the fruit. "Apple" because of its spherical shape just like the apple. The deep orange to red fruit with its leaves and tree bark is said to have curative and nutritive properties, which are extremely beneficial to our wellbeing. (Kwesi, 2015) In Ghana Alasa is a highly seasonal fruit, hardly available all year round except from December to April. For many, memories of "alasa" are linked with memories of Christmas and New Year. In Ghana, it is cultivated in cocoa growing areas, savannah and forest area, mostly found in the East Akim area, it takes between seven to eight years to mature. (Antwi-Otoo, 2016) The flesh is soft, gelatinous, translucent-white and each fruit has 1-4 large dark brown seeds. Abiu is eaten slightly chilled by halving the fruit and scooping out the flesh or by cutting the fruit into segments and eating alone or in a fruit salad. It can also be used for juice and in ice-cream. The fruit is rich in vitamins and minerals: thiamine 0.2 mg, riboflavin 0.2 mg, niacin 3.4 mg, vitamin C 49 mg, calcium 22 mg and iron 1.8 mg (Lim, 1998).
It has a surprisingly decent amount of Ascorbic Acid (Vitamin C). It could serve as a natural source of Antioxidant booster to remove free radicals from oxidative stress disorders, and its leaf extract contains Hypoglycemic (to treat Diabetes) and Anti-Platelet activities, although it also had toxic effects on some organs (Boateng, 2016). Eating star apple as a snack is a good choice as the calories are low and it provides no fat; however, this may not be enough calories to ease hunger pains and boost energy levels, as between-meal snacks are meant to do (Kwesi, 2015). In view of the above, the researcher seeks to produce jam using Alasa and honey.
Research conducted by the African Research Review reveals that, the African star fruit contains some of the vital nutrients needed by the body in daily doses. For example, the fruit is an excellent source of calcium and vitamin c, which goes a long way to strengthen bones and teeth and also reduces the intensity of abdominal bloating and cramps in women (Kwesi, 2015). According to Boateng, (2016) the nutritional elements present include vitamins B1 and B2, crude fibre, lipids, protein and Iron. The fruit also has traces of Potassium, phosphorous, magnesium, tannins and flavonoids. Both the skin and pulp of the Alasa contains much more ascorbic acid than what is found in oranges. The immune system, eyes and even skin benefits tremendously from the high content of vitamin C present in "Alasa". Despite the rich nutritional content of alasa, a lot of people find it difficult to consume because of its sour taste. The researcher therefore sought to produce jam using Alasa and honey that will make it easy for people to consume.
Primarily, the main objective of the study was to prepare jam using alasa and honey. The specific objectives include:  To find out if Alasa and honey can be used in jam making.  To ascertain whether Alasa and honey jam can be accepted into the consumer market.  To evaluate whether people will prefer Alasa and honey jam to other jam in the market. To achieve these objectives, the study sought to find answers to the following research questions:  Can Alasa and honey be used in jam making?  Will the Alasa and honey jam be accepted into the consumer market?  Will people prefer Alasa and honey jam to other jam in the market? The significance of this paper lies in the fact that it can help create varieties of jam onto the Ghanaian market and the world as a whole. Again, the study can create awareness of the new use of the Alasa fruit. Furthermore, the jam can also serve as an alternative product for diabetic people who prefer to have jam without sugar since some of the Alasa jam were made with only honey instead of sugar. Last but not least, the paper would serve as a reference for further research work.

MATERIAL AND METHODS
In this section, we present the research design, population and sample characteristics, sources of raw materials, sample collection, product development, sensory and data analyses.

Research Design
This study used experimental research design. An experimental research is a controlled study in which the researcher attempts to control the variables to achieve a required result. In this study the researcher controlled the variable to get the required results. Variables like honey, sugar and Alasa was controlled by measuring, heating and cooking to get the Alasa and honey jam.

Population and Sample Characteristics
Population simply refers to subject or members that conform to a set of specification. The population of interest to the researcher were Students, Teaching and Non-teaching staff of the Hospitality Management Department of Takoradi Technical University. The sample size was sixty-five (65) respondents, consisting of fifteen (15) students each from HND I, II, III (regular and evening) and ten (10) teaching and ten (10) non-teaching staff. This sample size was selected to get the views of students, teaching and non-teaching staff.

Sources of Raw Materials
All the raw materials were locally available in Takoradi market circle and Kojokrom market. The researcher sourced for freshly ripped Alasa fruits from KojoKrom Market a suburb of Takoradi. However, during the cause of production all rotten fruits were excluded.

Sample Collection
Freshly ripped Alasa fruits, honey, sugar and ginger were bought a week before production because of its scarcity in the market and also to get a good quality product.

Product Development
Wash fresh fruit after sorting Deseed fruit and then mash to obtain the pulp. Add sugar and stir well Boil for about 15 minutes to ensure a complete dissolution, Boil down quickly to desired consistence The products were produced at the Hospitality Management department of Takoradi Technical University. Strict food kitchen and personal hygiene practices were observed in the course of production. All equipment were thoroughly washed and rinsed, hand gloves were used during production. Four different samples were produced; Sample A: 100% sugar and Alasa Jam Sample B: 50% Sugar, 50% honey and Alasa Jam Sample C: 100% honey and Alasa Jam Sample D: 40% Sugar, 60% Honey and Alasa jam. Wash, peel and deseed Alasa. Put them in a saucepan, add ½ liter of water and leave to simmer for 15 minutes. Use a blender to crush the cooked Alasa and remove the gummy particles. Transfer into a new saucepan. Add sugar and ginger and simmer for 20 minutes. Check on jam and add honey and simmer until it leaves the sides of the saucepan for 15 minutes. Transfer into a new container and allow to cool. Store in a cool dry place in an air tight container.

Sensory Analysis
Samples from the products were displayed for the respondents to taste and comment using sensory analysis form. The sensory indicators were texture, taste, aroma, colour and appearance by the use of questionnaires. The questionnaire consisted of both open and close ended questions. Open ended questions allowed respondents to share their views on the product whereas close ended questions allowed the respondents to choose from limited responses given.

Data Analysis
Data collected was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences and Microsoft Excel 2013. Results were presented using pie charts and frequency distribution tables for easy understanding of the results.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This section presents analysis of data collected from Students, Teaching and None-Teaching staff of Takoradi Technical University at the department of Hospitality Management on the topic preparing jam using Alasa and honey. Sixty-five (65) copies of questionnaires were administered during the sensory evaluation stage and it is important to note that 50 of them were fully filled and returned, therefore the analysis was based on the fifty (50) questionnaire received. The analysis first presents the demographic data of respondents followed by the items in the questionnaires based on the objectives of the study.

Demographic Characteristics
It can be seen from Table 4.1 the frequency distribution of gender of respondents selected for the study. The table clearly indicates that majority of the respondents were females which recorded 35 respondents representing 70%, while the remaining 15 respondents representing 30% were males. This shows that more females participated in the study than males. Table 4.1 also shows the frequency distribution of age of respondents who participated in the study. The table shows that the common age groups among the respondents were 18-25 years, which recorded 32 respondents representing 64%, followed by age group between 26-35 years, which recorded 16 respondents representing 32% ISSN 2224-6088 (Paper) ISSN 2225-0557 (Online) Vol.101, 2020 45 and only 1 respondent representing 2% was above 45 years of age. Table 4.1 further indicates the frequency distribution of educational status of the respondents who participated in the study. The table shows that HND III Hospitality Management students participated the more in the study (46%), followed by HND I students recording 13 respondents representing 26%.
Again, Table 4.1 indicates categories of respondents who participated in the study. It can be seen that majority of the respondents were students (88%) while only 12% were staff. Out of the number of staff who took part in the study 50% were teaching staff while the remaining 50% were non-teaching staff. Hence there was a split.  Figure 4.1 represents respondents" awareness on Alasa and honey. When respondents were asked whether they have heard of Alasa and honey, majority of the respondents (76%) said they have heard about Alasa and honey while 24% have not. This implies that Alasa is a common fruit that most people know. Antwi-Otoo (2016), stated that in Ghana Alasa is available from December to April. For many, memories of "Alasa" are linked with memories of Christmas and New Year. In Ghana, it is cultivated in cocoa growing areas, savannah and forest area, mostly found in the East Akim area.

Figure 4.1: Response on whether respondents have heard of Alasa and honey Source: Field work, March 2017
In Figure 4.2, respondents were asked whether they have eaten Alasa before. 86% of the respondents indicated that they have eating Alasa before. This implied that majority of the respondents have eaten Alasa before. According to Crane and Balerdi (2016), Alasa is usually eaten as a fresh fruit but may be an ingredient of sorbets and ice-cream. Alasa fruit contain vitamin A, ascorbic acid, phosphorous, and calcium. Doan (2016) added that a ripped Alasa has a very unique taste, the creamy white flesh is extremely delicate, lightly sweet, with a strong hint

Figure 4.2: Response on whether respondents have eaten Alasa before Source: Field work, March 2017
Respondents who said they have eaten Alasa before were asked a follow up question on the taste of Alasa. From Figure 4.3, majority of the respondents (68%) said Alasa tasted Sour, 28% of the respondents said it tasted sweet. This implied that majority of the respondents know that Alasa taste sour. This confirms the assertion by Crane and Balerdi (2016), that Alasa fruit contain high amount of ascorbic acid which makes it taste sour.

Figure 4.3: The Taste of Alasa Source: Field work, March 2017
When respondents were asked what they know about Alasa (Table 4.2), more than half of them (64%) mentioned that Alasa is a fruit and contain acid, about 32% said it taste sweet but there is a little sourness in it, and only 4% said Alasa is a healthy fruit and has a medicinal purpose. This is in line with the assertion of Boateng (2016), that the fruit is rich in vitamins and minerals: thiamine, riboflavin, niacin, vitamin C, calcium and iron and has a medicinal purpose. In Brazil for instance, people use Alasa to relieve coughs, bronchitis and other pulmonary afflictions.  Figure 4.4 shows respondents' reaction to whether Alasa and honey can be used in jam making. Most of the respondents (88%) believed that Alasa and honey can be used in jam making. This implied that, it is possible to use Alasa and honey to produce jam. The reason, as asserted by pickyourown.org, is that Alasa contains high amount of pectin, a substance which causes a thickening in the production of jams. Figure 4.5 shows respondents' views on foods or products made from Alasa and honey. Majority of the respondents (84%) indicated that they have not come by any product made from honey and Alasa whilst 16% indicated that they have. This implied majority of the respondents have not seen any product made from Alasa. This indicate that not much products have been manufactured from Alasa on our market, so when a new product is made from Alasa, the Alasa eaters will be happy to patronize it.

Figure 4.5: Response on whether respondents have seen any food or product made from Alasa and honey. Source: Field work, March 2017
Figure 4.6 shows response on whether consumers will accept Alasa and honey jam in the market. Majority of the respondents (88%) agreed that honey and Alasa jam will be accepted by the Ghanaian community. This shows that when Alasa Jam is produced for the Ghana market more people will patronize it. The reason being that, people tend to be curious whenever there is a new product on the market.

Figure 4.6: Acceptance of Alasa and honey jam. Source: Field work, March 2017 Sensory Analysis
In this section, we analyzed respondents' view on the various products produced with the help of sensory analysis form. Product A, was Alasa and 100% sugar jam, and Product B was 50% honey, 50% sugar and Alasa jam.
Products C being the actual product was Alasa and 100% honey jam and product D was 40% Sugar, 60% honey and Alasa jam. Table 4.3 shows respondents' views on Product A -jam made from Alasa and 100% sugar. With the appearance of Alasa and sugar jam, 60% of the sample size admitted that it was excellent whiles 20% voted it to be very good. The Table revealed that Product A had an excellent colour as 40% said the colour was excellent. Another 40% said it was very good. With regards to the taste, 52% said the taste was excellent, 26% also said it was very good.
With regards to the aroma, 36% admitted that the aroma was excellent and for 30% the aroma was good. Finally, there was a little comment on the after-taste of Product A as 40% of the respondents said the after taste was excellent, and 2% said it was poor. Therefore, Product A had a perfect appearance, good colour, nice taste, perfect aroma with no after taste. This analysis goes in line with Saffery, D. (2007), assertion that people find jam made with 100% sugar very delicious. After-taste 20 -40% 16 -15% 13 -26% 1 -2% 0 -0% Table 4.4 presents respondents view on Product B (Jam made from 50% honey, 50% sugar and Alasa). With regards to the appearance of Product B, 40% of the respondents said it was excellent whilst 16% indicated that it was very poor.

Source: Fieldwork March, 2017
With the colour, majority of the respondents (32%) said the colour was excellent whiles 14% said the colour was very poor. With regards to the taste of Product B, 44% declared the taste was excellent, and 12% voted it very poor.
The aroma of Product B was found to be excellent as 50% of the sample size attested to that. However, 10% said the aroma was bad. 10% respondents made a little comment on the after-taste of Product B, indicating that it had very poor after-taste. Therefore, the appearance, colour, taste, after-taste and aroma of Product B were excellent. Aroma 25 -50% 9 -18% 6 -12% 5 -10% 5 -10% After-taste 0 -0% 0 -0% 0 -0% 0 -0% 5 -10% Table 4.5 indicates respondents" views on the Product C which was Jam made from Alasa and honey. About 40% said the appearance of Alasa and honey jam was very good and only 4% of respondents said the appearance was poor.

Source: Fieldwork March, 2017
The colour was regarded to be good by 40% of the respondents, whilst 4% of the population indicated that the colour was poor.
With regards to the taste 44% said it was good but 4% revealed that the taste of Alasa and honey jam was unpleasant. About the aroma of Alasa and honey jam, only 14% of the respondents indicated that the aroma was excellent, 66% indicated the aroma was good. 48% of the population made a poor comment on the aftertaste of Product C. Thus, Product C has a perfect appearance, good colour, nice taste with little aftertaste and perfect aroma. This analysis agrees with Sommer Leigh (2015), who asserted that a very sweet fruit and honey jam with no sugar can be made but one should know just the right amount to use.  Table 4.6 presents respondents" views on the Product D which was a jam made from 40% sugar 60% honey and Alasa jam. With regards to the appearance, 40% rated it excellent and 14% said it was poor.
The colour was rated very poor by 12% of the respondents but 34% indicated that the colour was excellent. With regards to the taste of Product D, 52% declared the taste was excellent, and 20% claimed it was very good.
Concerning the aroma, 75% of the respondents found it to be excellent but 2% voted the aroma as very poor. Finally, 10% commented excellently on the aftertaste of Product D. Therefore, it can be concluded that Product D had a faultless appearance, good colour, palatable taste with little after taste and perfect aroma. Aftertaste 5 -10% 0 -0% 0 -0% 0 -0% 0 -0%

Source: Fieldwork March, 2017
When respondents were asked the product they enjoyed most, 50% chose Product A (100% fruits and Sugar jam), and 50% also chose Product B which is made up of 50% honey, 50% Sugar and Alasa jam. Product C, which was the actual product made of Alasa and honey jam attracted 20%. The least enjoyed product was Product D made of 40% Sugar, 60% honey and Alasa jam. This result shows that majority of the respondents enjoyed Alasa and sugar jam against Alasa and honey jam as shown in Figure 4.7.

Figure 4.7: Which of the products did you enjoyed most? Source: Fieldwork, March 2017
From figure 4.8 almost all the respondents (80%) agreed that they would like the jam to be produced by Alasa and honey for the Ghanaian consumers and the world at large. This shows that when Alasa and honey jam is produced, people will patronize.

Figure 4.8: Would you like jam to be produced with Alasa and honey? Source: Fieldwork, March 2017
When respondents were asked their opinion on whether they will prefer Alas and honey jam in the market (Figure 4.9), majority of the respondents (68%) said yes and few said No (32%). This implies that majority of the respondents sampled would prefer new type of jam in the market.  Table 4.7 shows the reasons why respondents would prefer Alasa and honey Jam in the Ghanaian market. Majority of the respondents (64%) said the product has great natural taste, 32% said the product has more health benefits and few (4%) also stated that Alasa is a unique fruit.  Table 4.8 presents the result in respect of recommending the production of Alasa and Honey jam. More than half of the respondents (56%) recommended that people should be educated to encourage them to eat Alasa thus patronize the jam and 24% of the respondents said Alasa Jam should be produced in large quantities for the Ghanaian market. About 16% of the respondents recommended that Alasa jam should be promoted and only 4% of the respondents said there should be difference in appearance of the Alasa and honey jam.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
This section presents the conclusion and the recommendations of the study. The purpose of the study was to prepare jam using Alasa and honey. The objectives were to find out if Alasa and honey can be used in jam making; ascertain whether Alasa and honey can be accepted into the consumer market; evaluate whether people will prefer Alasa and honey jam to other jams in the market.
The study found that more females (70%) participated in the study than males, majority of the respondents who participated in the study were students with few teaching and none-teaching staff. It was found that majority of the respondents (76%), have heard about Alasa and honey with 86% who have eaten some before, however, majority of the respondents (68%) said Alasa tasted Sour. Also, it was found that majority of the respondents had not seen any product made from Alasa before.
The study revealed that respondents liked Alasa and honey jam because the product has great natural taste and has more health benefits. Respondents (56%) recommended that people should be educated to encourage them to eat Alasa and thus patronize the jam. Alasa Jam should be produced in large quantities for the Ghanaian market. Also, some recommended that Alasa jam should be promoted to catch the attention of consumers.
In respect of our objectives, the following conclusions can be made based on the findings: Most of the respondents (88%) believed that Alasa and honey can be used in jam making since Alasa is a fruit that contains high amount of pectin which helps in the production of jam, and it is a healthy fruit and has a medicinal purpose.
Majority of the respondents (88%) agreed that honey and Alasa jam will be accepted by the Ghanaian community.
Finally, a high percentage of the respondents (80%) agreed that they would like jam to be produced using Alasa and honey for the Ghanaian consumers and the world at large and also majority of the respondents sampled would prefer Alas and honey jam in the market.
The paper recommends that: Diabetic patient should try and purchase Alasa and honey jam.
Consumers should try and patronize Alasa and honey jam to create a variety in their breakfast dishes. It is also recommended for students, travelers, caterers, food vendors and other consumers.
Researchers can also research into the health benefits of alasa and honey jam.
It is also recommended that industrialist should use this research as a basis to produce alasa and honey jam in large quantities for the market.
Further studies can also be done on the colour of the jam to make it more attractive.


extfieldsofstudy:
Physics
Computer Science

s2fieldsofstudy:
Economics
Computer Science

text:
Dynamic Model for Determining Disaster Evacuation Locations with Game Theory

Disaster management can be grouped into three stages with several activities that can be carried out starting from pre-disaster, during emergency response and post-disaster. In the pre-disaster stage one of which is mitigation, which is a series of efforts to reduce disaster risk, both through physical development and awareness raising and capacity to face the threat of disaster. In mitigation one important factor is about evacuation. Evacuation locations in disaster transportation management are urgently needed for an effective evacuation process. Evacuation location determination is a benchmark in handling evacuation that can minimize the impact of losses from the disaster. To determine the evacuation location dynamically using game theory can solve the problem by providing several alternative locations by showing the dominant factor in the variables in the selection of the evacuation site. Game theory will use pure and mixed strategies to provide the most optimum choice of criteria. With this method will produce a decision support system to determine the optimal evacuation location or safe area in disaster mitigation

Introduction
Disaster is an event or series of events that threaten and disrupt people's lives and livelihoods caused, both by natural factors and / or non-natural factors as well as human factors resulting in human casualties, environmental damage, property losses and psychological impacts (Law No. 24 of 2007 concerning Disaster Management). Evacuation is the process by which people are placed from dangerous places to safer places to reduce health problems and people's lives that are vulnerable to being affected (Saadatseresht et al., 2009) (Mei et al., 2016) (Coutinho-Rodrigues et al., 2012). Disaster management as a process of evacuation of victims and an early warning system for disaster arrivals is slow due to difficulties in determining the location of the evacuation. The selection of evacuation sites in mitigation must consider the places that are available and based on geographical data from the disaster area. Each disaster affected area has different characteristics and this needs to be considered during evacuation. Considerations in the evacuation process are calculations of the number of people who can be mobilized, the capacity that can be carried, and the route chosen to go to safety (Campos et al., 2012). Bringing and directing people to safe areas is a major challenge in managing evacuation areas (Kendra et al., 2008). Evacuation is characterized by an immediate and rapid movement of people who  (Hamidazada et al., 2019). The important thing to note is that there is no congestion and chaos during the evacuation process (LIM et al., 2013).
In (Rogers & Luna, 2004) One of the anticipatory actions that can be taken before a disaster comes is to determine the location of the evacuation or a place to stop for disaster relief and disseminated to the wider community to accelerate the process of evacuation of disaster victims so as to minimize losses from the disaster, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) will be utilized with use the Overlay and Buffer functions and proceed with calculations using the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method which is expected to determine the best evacuation location so that it can be taken into consideration and help related agencies such as BPBD in order to improve mitigation. Game Theory is a mathematical model used in situations of conflict or competition between various interests that face each other as competitors (Kondratev & Mazalov, 2020). This theory was developed to analyze the decision making process of different competitive situations, and involves two or more interests (Bennett, 1995). Applying game theory will produce an optimal evacuation location in the decision support system in disaster mitigation (Li et al., 2014).

Game Theory with Linear Programs
To solve mixed strategy games with dimensions or larger, one can use a linear program by transforming the maximal and minimax equations into a linear programming form (Singh & Tech, 2010). The method that will be used in this research is a linear program method which can be formulated generally as follows: In solving the problem of game theory using a linear program using the simplex method, namely forming a linear program and finding the optimum solution (Kirtiwant; P. Ghadle, 2014). The steps in linear programming game theory are as follows:

For P1 Players (Line Players)
Player I is a line player (maximizing player), so it can be expressed hope of winning player I in a sign of greater inequality. This means that player I might get more wins than V if player II By dividing the above inequality with V, we get: Because player I is the maximizing player, the objective function is to maximize the value of V or equal to minimize 1 V , then the linear program for player I can be formulated as follows:

For P2 Players (Column Players)
Player II is a column player (minimizing player), so it can be expressed hope of winning Player II in a smaller sign of inequality. This means that Player II may suffer less than V if Player I uses a weak strategy. So the expected value of winning player II is: By dividing the above inequality with V, we get: Because Player II is a minimizing player, the objective function is to minimize the value of V or equal to maximize 1 v , then the linear program can be formulated for player II as follows: The linear player program for player II is: Min g0 = Y1 + Y2 + ... + Yn With restrictions: The linear program formulation in player I is dual from player II and vice versa. Obtained an optimal strategy for player I to be the optimal strategy for player II. Furthermore, to solve this linear program problem can be solved by using the simplex method. Players and strategies are used to determine the results of the calculation of pay-offs that show the optimal solution for the strategies used in evacuation to achieve benefits in determining the location of the evacuation. The count of each player is explained by comparing the evacuation location 1 (L1) with evacuation location 3 (L3), evacuation location 2 (L2) with evacuation location 3 (L3), and evacuation location 1 (L1) with evacuation location 2 (L2). At each evacuation site get a strategy that can be used to achieve profits in evacuation, with the acquisition value of the player comparison game as follows: In the table above, it can be seen that the smallest value (maximin) in the row is -20 while in the column player the greatest value (minimaks) is 35. The maximin value is not the same, so the game does not have a saddle point so the next step will be to find the balance point with rules of domination. For Location 1 (L1) can be formulated into a linear program for line players as follows:

Evacuation Location 1 (L1) with Evacuation Location 3 (L3)
Because the acquisition matrix elements above have been added with K = 20, the game value becomes V = 25-20 = 5, so the optimal solution is 5. Obtained optimal strategy for Location 3, namely strategy (Height of Place), strategy (Number of Population), strategy (Length of Evacuation Path), strategy (Hierarchy of Roads), Strategy (Type of Transportation) and strategy (Area of Evacuation Place) with large game value ( value of games) of 5. For Location 3 (L3) can be formulated into a linear program for line players as follows: Maximize: With restrictions: Because the acquisition matrix elements above have been added with K = 20, the game value becomes V = 25-20 = 5, so the optimal solution is 5. Obtained optimal strategy for Location 3, namely strategy (Height of Place), strategy (Number of Population), strategy (Length of Evacuation Path), strategy (Hierarchy of Roads), Strategy (Type of Transportation) and strategy (Area of Evacuation Place) with large game value ( value of games) of 5. In the table above, it can be seen that the smallest value (maxima) in the row is -31 while in the column player, the biggest value(minimax) is 63. The maximal value with the minimax value is not the same, so the game does not have a saddle point, so the next step will be to find the balance point with rules of domination.  In the table above it can be seen that there is a similar value of 7, then the game is optimal because it has saddle points. In the table above, it can be seen that the smallest value (maximum) in the row is -40 while in the column player the biggest value (minimax) is 22. The maximum value with the minimum value is not the same so the game does not have a saddle point so the next step will be to find the balance point with rules of domination. For Location 2 (L2) Can be formulated into a linear program for line players as follows:  10 The following optimal solution is obtained:  Since the acquisition matrix elements above have been added K = 40, the game value is V = 25-40 = -15. So the optimal strategy is -15. Obtained optimal strategy for Location 2, namely strategy (Height of Place), strategy (Number of Population), strategy (Length of Evacuation Path), strategy (Road Hierarchy), Strategy (Type of Transportation) and strategy (Area of Evacuation Place) with large game value ( value of games) of -15.