Daily Papers

Visual environments are structured, consisting of distinct objects or entities. These entities have properties -- both visible and latent -- that determine the manner in which they interact with one another. To partition images into entities, deep-learning researchers have proposed structural inductive biases such as slot-based architectures. To model interactions among entities, equivariant graph neural nets (GNNs) are used, but these are not particularly well suited to the task for two reasons. First, GNNs do not predispose interactions to be sparse, as relationships among independent entities are likely to be. Second, GNNs do not factorize knowledge about interactions in an entity-conditional manner. As an alternative, we take inspiration from cognitive science and resurrect a classic approach, production systems, which consist of a set of rule templates that are applied by binding placeholder variables in the rules to specific entities. Rules are scored on their match to entities, and the best fitting rules are applied to update entity properties. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this architecture achieves a flexible, dynamic flow of control and serves to factorize entity-specific and rule-based information. This disentangling of knowledge achieves robust future-state prediction in rich visual environments, outperforming state-of-the-art methods using GNNs, and allows for the extrapolation from simple (few object) environments to more complex environments.

Generative models have been widely applied to world modeling for environment simulation and future state prediction. With advancements in autonomous driving, there is a growing demand not only for high-fidelity video generation under various controls, but also for producing diverse and meaningful information such as depth estimation. To address this, we propose CVD-STORM, a cross-view video diffusion model utilizing a spatial-temporal reconstruction Variational Autoencoder (VAE) that generates long-term, multi-view videos with 4D reconstruction capabilities under various control inputs. Our approach first fine-tunes the VAE with an auxiliary 4D reconstruction task, enhancing its ability to encode 3D structures and temporal dynamics. Subsequently, we integrate this VAE into the video diffusion process to significantly improve generation quality. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves substantial improvements in both FID and FVD metrics. Additionally, the jointly-trained Gaussian Splatting Decoder effectively reconstructs dynamic scenes, providing valuable geometric information for comprehensive scene understanding.

Learning an agent model that behaves like humans-capable of jointly perceiving the environment, predicting the future, and taking actions from a first-person perspective-is a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Existing methods typically train separate models for these abilities, which fail to capture their intrinsic relationships and prevent them from learning from each other. Inspired by how humans learn through the perception-action loop, we propose EgoAgent, a unified agent model that simultaneously learns to represent, predict, and act within a single transformer. EgoAgent explicitly models the causal and temporal dependencies among these abilities by formulating the task as an interleaved sequence of states and actions. It further introduces a joint embedding-action-prediction architecture with temporally asymmetric predictor and observer branches, enabling synergistic optimization across all three capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations of EgoAgent on representative tasks such as image classification, egocentric future state prediction, and 3D human motion prediction demonstrate the superiority of our method. The code and trained models will be publicly available at https://github.com/zju3dv/EgoAgent.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as world models to enhance agent decision-making in digital environments by simulating future states and predicting action outcomes, potentially eliminating costly trial-and-error exploration. However, this capability is fundamentally limited by LLMs' tendency toward hallucination and their reliance on static training knowledge, which can lead to compounding errors that inhibit long-horizon simulations. To systematically investigate whether LLMs are appropriate for world modeling, we probe two core capabilities of world models--future state prediction and reward estimation--through three tasks: next-state identification, full-procedure planning alignment, and milestone transition recognition. Our analysis shows that while LLMs effectively capture immediate next states and identify meaningful state transitions, their performance rapidly degrades in full-procedure planning. This highlights LLMs' limitations in reliably modeling environment dynamics over long horizons. To address these limitations, we propose the Retrieval-augmented World Model (R-WoM), which grounds LLM simulations by incorporating factual, up-to-date knowledge retrieved from external tutorials. Experiments show that R-WoM achieves substantial improvements of up to 25.3% (OSWorld) and 18.1% (WebArena) compared to baselines, with particular advantages in longer-horizon simulations.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Despite recent progress in reinforcement learning (RL) from raw pixel data, sample inefficiency continues to present a substantial obstacle. Prior works have attempted to address this challenge by creating self-supervised auxiliary tasks, aiming to enrich the agent's learned representations with control-relevant information for future state prediction. However, these objectives are often insufficient to learn representations that can represent the optimal policy or value function, and they often consider tasks with small, abstract discrete action spaces and thus overlook the importance of action representation learning in continuous control. In this paper, we introduce TACO: Temporal Action-driven Contrastive Learning, a simple yet powerful temporal contrastive learning approach that facilitates the concurrent acquisition of latent state and action representations for agents. TACO simultaneously learns a state and an action representation by optimizing the mutual information between representations of current states paired with action sequences and representations of the corresponding future states. Theoretically, TACO can be shown to learn state and action representations that encompass sufficient information for control, thereby improving sample efficiency. For online RL, TACO achieves 40% performance boost after one million environment interaction steps on average across nine challenging visual continuous control tasks from Deepmind Control Suite. In addition, we show that TACO can also serve as a plug-and-play module adding to existing offline visual RL methods to establish the new state-of-the-art performance for offline visual RL across offline datasets with varying quality.

Tactile feedback is critical for understanding the dynamics of both rigid and deformable objects in many manipulation tasks, such as non-prehensile manipulation and dense packing. We introduce an approach that combines visual and tactile sensing for robotic manipulation by learning a neural, tactile-informed dynamics model. Our proposed framework, RoboPack, employs a recurrent graph neural network to estimate object states, including particles and object-level latent physics information, from historical visuo-tactile observations and to perform future state predictions. Our tactile-informed dynamics model, learned from real-world data, can solve downstream robotics tasks with model-predictive control. We demonstrate our approach on a real robot equipped with a compliant Soft-Bubble tactile sensor on non-prehensile manipulation and dense packing tasks, where the robot must infer the physics properties of objects from direct and indirect interactions. Trained on only an average of 30 minutes of real-world interaction data per task, our model can perform online adaptation and make touch-informed predictions. Through extensive evaluations in both long-horizon dynamics prediction and real-world manipulation, our method demonstrates superior effectiveness compared to previous learning-based and physics-based simulation systems.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics, state observations in particular, while the impact of model error on the policy is not captured by the training objective. This leads to a mismatch between the intended goal of MBRL, enabling good policy and value learning, and the target of the loss function employed in practice, future state prediction. Naive intuition would suggest that value-aware model learning would fix this problem and, indeed, several solutions to this objective mismatch problem have been proposed based on theoretical analysis. However, they tend to be inferior in practice to commonly used maximum likelihood (MLE) based approaches. In this paper we propose the Value-gradient weighted Model Learning (VaGraM), a novel method for value-aware model learning which improves the performance of MBRL in challenging settings, such as small model capacity and the presence of distracting state dimensions. We analyze both MLE and value-aware approaches and demonstrate how they fail to account for exploration and the behavior of function approximation when learning value-aware models and highlight the additional goals that must be met to stabilize optimization in the deep learning setting. We verify our analysis by showing that our loss function is able to achieve high returns on the Mujoco benchmark suite while being more robust than maximum likelihood based approaches.

Despite remarkable progress in driving world models, their potential for autonomous systems remains largely untapped: the world models are mostly learned for world simulation and decoupled from trajectory planning. While recent efforts aim to unify world modeling and planning in a single framework, the synergistic facilitation mechanism of world modeling for planning still requires further exploration. In this work, we introduce a new driving paradigm named Policy World Model (PWM), which not only integrates world modeling and trajectory planning within a unified architecture, but is also able to benefit planning using the learned world knowledge through the proposed action-free future state forecasting scheme. Through collaborative state-action prediction, PWM can mimic the human-like anticipatory perception, yielding more reliable planning performance. To facilitate the efficiency of video forecasting, we further introduce a dynamically enhanced parallel token generation mechanism, equipped with a context-guided tokenizer and an adaptive dynamic focal loss. Despite utilizing only front camera input, our method matches or exceeds state-of-the-art approaches that rely on multi-view and multi-modal inputs. Code and model weights will be released at https://github.com/6550Zhao/Policy-World-Model.

Predicting the dynamics of interacting objects is essential for both humans and intelligent systems. However, existing approaches are limited to simplified, toy settings and lack generalizability to complex, real-world environments. Recent advances in generative models have enabled the prediction of state transitions based on interventions, but focus on generating a single future state which neglects the continuous dynamics resulting from the interaction. To address this gap, we propose InterDyn, a novel framework that generates videos of interactive dynamics given an initial frame and a control signal encoding the motion of a driving object or actor. Our key insight is that large video generation models can act as both neural renderers and implicit physics ``simulators'', having learned interactive dynamics from large-scale video data. To effectively harness this capability, we introduce an interactive control mechanism that conditions the video generation process on the motion of the driving entity. Qualitative results demonstrate that InterDyn generates plausible, temporally consistent videos of complex object interactions while generalizing to unseen objects. Quantitative evaluations show that InterDyn outperforms baselines that focus on static state transitions. This work highlights the potential of leveraging video generative models as implicit physics engines. Project page: https://interdyn.is.tue.mpg.de/

Humans and animals have a rich and flexible understanding of the physical world, which enables them to infer the underlying dynamical trajectories of objects and events, plausible future states, and use that to plan and anticipate the consequences of actions. However, the neural mechanisms underlying these computations are unclear. We combine a goal-driven modeling approach with dense neurophysiological data and high-throughput human behavioral readouts to directly impinge on this question. Specifically, we construct and evaluate several classes of sensory-cognitive networks to predict the future state of rich, ethologically-relevant environments, ranging from self-supervised end-to-end models with pixel-wise or object-centric objectives, to models that future predict in the latent space of purely static image-based or dynamic video-based pretrained foundation models. We find strong differentiation across these model classes in their ability to predict neural and behavioral data both within and across diverse environments. In particular, we find that neural responses are currently best predicted by models trained to predict the future state of their environment in the latent space of pretrained foundation models optimized for dynamic scenes in a self-supervised manner. Notably, models that future predict in the latent space of video foundation models that are optimized to support a diverse range of sensorimotor tasks, reasonably match both human behavioral error patterns and neural dynamics across all environmental scenarios that we were able to test. Overall, these findings suggest that the neural mechanisms and behaviors of primate mental simulation are thus far most consistent with being optimized to future predict on dynamic, reusable visual representations that are useful for embodied AI more generally.

Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) are becoming increasingly capable across diverse robotic tasks. However, their real-world deployment remains slow and inefficient: demonstration videos are often sped up by 5-10x to appear smooth, with noticeable action stalls and delayed reactions to environmental changes. Asynchronous inference offers a promising solution to achieve continuous and low-latency control by enabling robots to execute actions and perform inference simultaneously. However, because the robot and environment continue to evolve during inference, a temporal misalignment arises between the prediction and execution intervals. This leads to significant action instability, while existing methods either degrade accuracy or introduce runtime overhead to mitigate it. We propose VLASH, a general asynchronous inference framework for VLAs that delivers smooth, accurate, and fast reaction control without additional overhead or architectural changes. VLASH estimates the future execution-time state by rolling the robot state forward with the previously generated action chunk, thereby bridging the gap between prediction and execution. Experiments show that VLASH achieves up to 2.03x speedup and reduces reaction latency by up to 17.4x compared to synchronous inference while fully preserving the original accuracy. Moreover, it empowers VLAs to handle fast-reaction, high-precision tasks such as playing ping-pong and playing whack-a-mole, where traditional synchronous inference fails. Code is available at https://github.com/mit-han-lab/vlash

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Vehicle-to-everything technologies (V2X) have become an ideal paradigm to extend the perception range and see through the occlusion. Exiting efforts focus on single-frame cooperative perception, however, how to capture the temporal cue between frames with V2X to facilitate the prediction task even the planning task is still underexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Co-MTP, a general cooperative trajectory prediction framework with multi-temporal fusion for autonomous driving, which leverages the V2X system to fully capture the interaction among agents in both history and future domains to benefit the planning. In the history domain, V2X can complement the incomplete history trajectory in single-vehicle perception, and we design a heterogeneous graph transformer to learn the fusion of the history feature from multiple agents and capture the history interaction. Moreover, the goal of prediction is to support future planning. Thus, in the future domain, V2X can provide the prediction results of surrounding objects, and we further extend the graph transformer to capture the future interaction among the ego planning and the other vehicles' intentions and obtain the final future scenario state under a certain planning action. We evaluate the Co-MTP framework on the real-world dataset V2X-Seq, and the results show that Co-MTP achieves state-of-the-art performance and that both history and future fusion can greatly benefit prediction.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Semantic future prediction is important for autonomous systems navigating dynamic environments. This paper introduces FUTURIST, a method for multimodal future semantic prediction that uses a unified and efficient visual sequence transformer architecture. Our approach incorporates a multimodal masked visual modeling objective and a novel masking mechanism designed for multimodal training. This allows the model to effectively integrate visible information from various modalities, improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, we propose a VAE-free hierarchical tokenization process, which reduces computational complexity, streamlines the training pipeline, and enables end-to-end training with high-resolution, multimodal inputs. We validate FUTURIST on the Cityscapes dataset, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in future semantic segmentation for both short- and mid-term forecasting. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/FUTURIST .

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding agents is essential for safety-critical autonomous driving. Most existing work focuses on predicting marginal trajectories for each agent independently. However, it has rarely been explored in predicting joint trajectories for interactive agents. In this work, we propose Bi-level Future Fusion (BiFF) to explicitly capture future interactions between interactive agents. Concretely, BiFF fuses the high-level future intentions followed by low-level future behaviors. Then the polyline-based coordinate is specifically designed for multi-agent prediction to ensure data efficiency, frame robustness, and prediction accuracy. Experiments show that BiFF achieves state-of-the-art performance on the interactive prediction benchmark of Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

End-to-end autonomous driving unifies tasks in a differentiable framework, enabling planning-oriented optimization and attracting growing attention. Current methods aggregate historical information either through dense historical bird's-eye-view (BEV) features or by querying a sparse memory bank, following paradigms inherited from detection. However, we argue that these paradigms either omit historical information in motion planning or fail to align with its multi-step nature, which requires predicting or planning multiple future time steps. In line with the philosophy of future is a continuation of past, we propose BridgeAD, which reformulates motion and planning queries as multi-step queries to differentiate the queries for each future time step. This design enables the effective use of historical prediction and planning by applying them to the appropriate parts of the end-to-end system based on the time steps, which improves both perception and motion planning. Specifically, historical queries for the current frame are combined with perception, while queries for future frames are integrated with motion planning. In this way, we bridge the gap between past and future by aggregating historical insights at every time step, enhancing the overall coherence and accuracy of the end-to-end autonomous driving pipeline. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset in both open-loop and closed-loop settings demonstrate that BridgeAD achieves state-of-the-art performance.

This paper presents WALDO (WArping Layer-Decomposed Objects), a novel approach to the prediction of future video frames from past ones. Individual images are decomposed into multiple layers combining object masks and a small set of control points. The layer structure is shared across all frames in each video to build dense inter-frame connections. Complex scene motions are modeled by combining parametric geometric transformations associated with individual layers, and video synthesis is broken down into discovering the layers associated with past frames, predicting the corresponding transformations for upcoming ones and warping the associated object regions accordingly, and filling in the remaining image parts. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks including urban videos (Cityscapes and KITTI) and videos featuring nonrigid motions (UCF-Sports and H3.6M), show that our method consistently outperforms the state of the art by a significant margin in every case. Code, pretrained models, and video samples synthesized by our approach can be found in the project webpage https://16lemoing.github.io/waldo.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is escalating and outpacing current antibiotic development. Thus, discovering antibiotics effective against emerging pathogens is becoming increasingly critical. However, existing approaches cannot rapidly identify effective molecules against novel pathogens or emerging drug-resistant strains. Here, we introduce ApexOracle, an artificial intelligence (AI) model that both predicts the antibacterial potency of existing compounds and designs de novo molecules active against strains it has never encountered. Departing from models that rely solely on molecular features, ApexOracle incorporates pathogen-specific context through the integration of molecular features captured via a foundational discrete diffusion language model and a dual-embedding framework that combines genomic- and literature-derived strain representations. Across diverse bacterial species and chemical modalities, ApexOracle consistently outperformed state-of-the-art approaches in activity prediction and demonstrated reliable transferability to novel pathogens with little or no antimicrobial data. Its unified representation-generation architecture further enables the in silico creation of "new-to-nature" molecules with high predicted efficacy against priority threats. By pairing rapid activity prediction with targeted molecular generation, ApexOracle offers a scalable strategy for countering AMR and preparing for future infectious-disease outbreaks.

Visual Planning for Assistance (VPA) aims to predict a sequence of user actions required to achieve a specified goal based on a video showing the user's progress. Although recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown promising results in video understanding, long-horizon visual planning remains a challenging problem. We identify two challenges in training large MLLMs for video-based planning tasks: (1) scarcity of procedural annotations, limiting the model's ability to learn procedural task dynamics effectively, and (2) inefficiency of next-token prediction objective to explicitly capture the structured action space for visual planning when compared to free-form, natural language. To tackle data scarcity, we introduce Auxiliary Task Augmentation. We design and train our model on auxiliary tasks relevant to long-horizon video-based planning (e.g., goal prediction) to augment the model's planning ability. To more explicitly model the structured action space unique to visual planning tasks, we leverage Multi-token Prediction, extending traditional next-token prediction by using multiple heads to predict multiple future tokens during training. Our approach, VideoPlan, achieves state-of-the-art VPA performance on the COIN and CrossTask datasets, surpassing prior methods by 7.3% and 3.4%, respectively, when predicting 3 future actions. We further extend our method to the challenging Ego4D Long-term Action Anticipation task, and show that it is on par with the state-of-the-art approaches despite not using specialized egocentric features. Code will be made available.

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (DiffuTraj) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.

Temporal-difference (TD) methods learn state and action values efficiently by bootstrapping from their own future value predictions, but such a self-bootstrapping mechanism is prone to bootstrapping bias, where the errors in the value targets accumulate across steps and result in biased value estimates. Recent work has proposed to use chunked critics, which estimate the value of short action sequences ("chunks") rather than individual actions, speeding up value backup. However, extracting policies from chunked critics is challenging: policies must output the entire action chunk open-loop, which can be sub-optimal for environments that require policy reactivity and also challenging to model especially when the chunk length grows. Our key insight is to decouple the chunk length of the critic from that of the policy, allowing the policy to operate over shorter action chunks. We propose a novel algorithm that achieves this by optimizing the policy against a distilled critic for partial action chunks, constructed by optimistically backing up from the original chunked critic to approximate the maximum value achievable when a partial action chunk is extended to a complete one. This design retains the benefits of multi-step value propagation while sidestepping both the open-loop sub-optimality and the difficulty of learning action chunking policies for long action chunks. We evaluate our method on challenging, long-horizon offline goal-conditioned tasks and show that it reliably outperforms prior methods. Code: github.com/ColinQiyangLi/dqc.

Supervised learning on molecules has incredible potential to be useful in chemistry, drug discovery, and materials science. Luckily, several promising and closely related neural network models invariant to molecular symmetries have already been described in the literature. These models learn a message passing algorithm and aggregation procedure to compute a function of their entire input graph. At this point, the next step is to find a particularly effective variant of this general approach and apply it to chemical prediction benchmarks until we either solve them or reach the limits of the approach. In this paper, we reformulate existing models into a single common framework we call Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs) and explore additional novel variations within this framework. Using MPNNs we demonstrate state of the art results on an important molecular property prediction benchmark; these results are strong enough that we believe future work should focus on datasets with larger molecules or more accurate ground truth labels.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Short-term action anticipation (STA) in first-person videos is a challenging task that involves understanding the next active object interactions and predicting future actions. Existing action anticipation methods have primarily focused on utilizing features extracted from video clips, but often overlooked the importance of objects and their interactions. To this end, we propose a novel approach that applies a guided attention mechanism between the objects, and the spatiotemporal features extracted from video clips, enhancing the motion and contextual information, and further decoding the object-centric and motion-centric information to address the problem of STA in egocentric videos. Our method, GANO (Guided Attention for Next active Objects) is a multi-modal, end-to-end, single transformer-based network. The experimental results performed on the largest egocentric dataset demonstrate that GANO outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods for the prediction of the next active object label, its bounding box location, the corresponding future action, and the time to contact the object. The ablation study shows the positive contribution of the guided attention mechanism compared to other fusion methods. Moreover, it is possible to improve the next active object location and class label prediction results of GANO by just appending the learnable object tokens with the region of interest embeddings.

The remarkable success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has extended to the multimodal domain, achieving outstanding performance in image understanding and generation. Recent efforts to develop unified Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) that integrate these capabilities have shown promising results. However, existing approaches often involve complex designs in model architecture or training pipeline, increasing the difficulty of model training and scaling. In this paper, we propose SynerGen-VL, a simple yet powerful encoder-free MLLM capable of both image understanding and generation. To address challenges identified in existing encoder-free unified MLLMs, we introduce the token folding mechanism and the vision-expert-based progressive alignment pretraining strategy, which effectively support high-resolution image understanding while reducing training complexity. After being trained on large-scale mixed image-text data with a unified next-token prediction objective, SynerGen-VL achieves or surpasses the performance of existing encoder-free unified MLLMs with comparable or smaller parameter sizes, and narrows the gap with task-specific state-of-the-art models, highlighting a promising path toward future unified MLLMs. Our code and models shall be released.

Data-driven learning is rapidly evolving and places a new perspective on realizing state-space dynamical systems. However, dynamical systems derived from nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) suffer from limitations in computational efficiency. Thus, this paper stems from data-driven learning to advance states of dynamical systems utilizing a structured neural network (StNN). The proposed learning technique also seeks to identify an optimal, low-complexity operator to solve dynamical systems, the so-called Hankel operator, derived from time-delay measurements. Thus, we utilize the StNN based on the Hankel operator to solve dynamical systems as an alternative to existing data-driven techniques. We show that the proposed StNN reduces the number of parameters and computational complexity compared with the conventional neural networks and also with the classical data-driven techniques, such as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) and Hankel Alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK), which is commonly known as delay-Dynamic Mode Decomposition(DMD) or Hankel-DMD. More specifically, we present numerical simulations to solve dynamical systems utilizing the StNN based on the Hankel operator beginning from the fundamental Lotka-Volterra model, where we compare the StNN with the LEarning Across Dynamical Systems (LEADS), and extend our analysis to highly nonlinear and chaotic Lorenz systems, comparing the StNN with conventional neural networks, SINDy, and HAVOK. Hence, we show that the proposed StNN paves the way for realizing state-space dynamical systems with a low-complexity learning algorithm, enabling prediction and understanding of future states.

Recent video generation models can produce smooth and visually appealing clips, but they often struggle to synthesize complex dynamics with a coherent chain of consequences. Accurately modeling visual outcomes and state transitions over time remains a core challenge. In contrast, large language and multimodal models (e.g., GPT-4o) exhibit strong visual state reasoning and future prediction capabilities. To bridge these strengths, we introduce VChain, a novel inference-time chain-of-visual-thought framework that injects visual reasoning signals from multimodal models into video generation. Specifically, VChain contains a dedicated pipeline that leverages large multimodal models to generate a sparse set of critical keyframes as snapshots, which are then used to guide the sparse inference-time tuning of a pre-trained video generator only at these key moments. Our approach is tuning-efficient, introduces minimal overhead and avoids dense supervision. Extensive experiments on complex, multi-step scenarios show that VChain significantly enhances the quality of generated videos.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Dynamics prediction, which is the problem of predicting future states of scene objects based on current and prior states, is drawing increasing attention as an instance of learning physics. To solve this problem, Region Proposal Convolutional Interaction Network (RPCIN), a vision-based model, was proposed and achieved state-of-the-art performance in long-term prediction. RPCIN only takes raw images and simple object descriptions, such as the bounding box and segmentation mask of each object, as input. However, despite its success, the model's capability can be compromised under conditions of environment misalignment. In this paper, we investigate two challenging conditions for environment misalignment: Cross-Domain and Cross-Context by proposing four datasets that are designed for these challenges: SimB-Border, SimB-Split, BlenB-Border, and BlenB-Split. The datasets cover two domains and two contexts. Using RPCIN as a probe, experiments conducted on the combinations of the proposed datasets reveal potential weaknesses of the vision-based long-term dynamics prediction model. Furthermore, we propose a promising direction to mitigate the Cross-Domain challenge and provide concrete evidence supporting such a direction, which provides dramatic alleviation of the challenge on the proposed datasets.

Deep learning models are increasingly employed for perception, prediction, and control in complex systems. Embedding physical knowledge into these models is crucial for achieving realistic and consistent outputs, a challenge often addressed by physics-informed machine learning. However, integrating physical knowledge with representation learning becomes difficult when dealing with high-dimensional observation data, such as images, particularly under conditions of incomplete or imprecise state information. To address this, we propose Physically Interpretable World Models, a novel architecture that aligns learned latent representations with real-world physical quantities. Our method combines a variational autoencoder with a dynamical model that incorporates unknown system parameters, enabling the discovery of physically meaningful representations. By employing weak supervision with interval-based constraints, our approach eliminates the reliance on ground-truth physical annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the quality of learned representations while achieving accurate predictions of future states, advancing the field of representation learning in dynamic systems.

We propose Embodied Navigation Trajectory Learner (ENTL), a method for extracting long sequence representations for embodied navigation. Our approach unifies world modeling, localization and imitation learning into a single sequence prediction task. We train our model using vector-quantized predictions of future states conditioned on current states and actions. ENTL's generic architecture enables sharing of the spatio-temporal sequence encoder for multiple challenging embodied tasks. We achieve competitive performance on navigation tasks using significantly less data than strong baselines while performing auxiliary tasks such as localization and future frame prediction (a proxy for world modeling). A key property of our approach is that the model is pre-trained without any explicit reward signal, which makes the resulting model generalizable to multiple tasks and environments.

Recent advancements in predictive models have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in predicting the future state of objects and scenes. However, the lack of categorization based on inherent characteristics continues to hinder the progress of predictive model development. Additionally, existing benchmarks are unable to effectively evaluate higher-capability, highly embodied predictive models from an embodied perspective. In this work, we classify the functionalities of predictive models into a hierarchy and take the first step in evaluating World Simulators by proposing a dual evaluation framework called WorldSimBench. WorldSimBench includes Explicit Perceptual Evaluation and Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, encompassing human preference assessments from the visual perspective and action-level evaluations in embodied tasks, covering three representative embodied scenarios: Open-Ended Embodied Environment, Autonomous, Driving, and Robot Manipulation. In the Explicit Perceptual Evaluation, we introduce the HF-Embodied Dataset, a video assessment dataset based on fine-grained human feedback, which we use to train a Human Preference Evaluator that aligns with human perception and explicitly assesses the visual fidelity of World Simulators. In the Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, we assess the video-action consistency of World Simulators by evaluating whether the generated situation-aware video can be accurately translated into the correct control signals in dynamic environments. Our comprehensive evaluation offers key insights that can drive further innovation in video generation models, positioning World Simulators as a pivotal advancement toward embodied artificial intelligence.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Autonomous driving demands an integrated approach that encompasses perception, prediction, and planning, all while operating under strict energy constraints to enhance scalability and environmental sustainability. We present Spiking Autonomous Driving (SAD), the first unified Spiking Neural Network (SNN) to address the energy challenges faced by autonomous driving systems through its event-driven and energy-efficient nature. SAD is trained end-to-end and consists of three main modules: perception, which processes inputs from multi-view cameras to construct a spatiotemporal bird's eye view; prediction, which utilizes a novel dual-pathway with spiking neurons to forecast future states; and planning, which generates safe trajectories considering predicted occupancy, traffic rules, and ride comfort. Evaluated on the nuScenes dataset, SAD achieves competitive performance in perception, prediction, and planning tasks, while drawing upon the energy efficiency of SNNs. This work highlights the potential of neuromorphic computing to be applied to energy-efficient autonomous driving, a critical step toward sustainable and safety-critical automotive technology. Our code is available at https://github.com/ridgerchu/SAD.

Predicting the future motion of dynamic agents is of paramount importance to ensuring safety and assessing risks in motion planning for autonomous robots. In this study, we propose a two-stage motion prediction method, called R-Pred, designed to effectively utilize both scene and interaction context using a cascade of the initial trajectory proposal and trajectory refinement networks. The initial trajectory proposal network produces M trajectory proposals corresponding to the M modes of the future trajectory distribution. The trajectory refinement network enhances each of the M proposals using 1) tube-query scene attention (TQSA) and 2) proposal-level interaction attention (PIA) mechanisms. TQSA uses tube-queries to aggregate local scene context features pooled from proximity around trajectory proposals of interest. PIA further enhances the trajectory proposals by modeling inter-agent interactions using a group of trajectory proposals selected by their distances from neighboring agents. Our experiments conducted on Argoverse and nuScenes datasets demonstrate that the proposed refinement network provides significant performance improvements compared to the single-stage baseline and that R-Pred achieves state-of-the-art performance in some categories of the benchmarks.

Solving complex long-horizon robotic manipulation problems requires sophisticated high-level planning capabilities, the ability to reason about the physical world, and reactively choose appropriate motor skills. Vision-language models (VLMs) pretrained on Internet data could in principle offer a framework for tackling such problems. However, in their current form, VLMs lack both the nuanced understanding of intricate physics required for robotic manipulation and the ability to reason over long horizons to address error compounding issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time computation framework that enhances VLMs' physical reasoning capabilities for multi-stage manipulation tasks. At its core, our approach iteratively improves a pretrained VLM with a "reflection" mechanism - it uses a generative model to imagine future world states, leverages these predictions to guide action selection, and critically reflects on potential suboptimalities to refine its reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art commercial VLMs as well as other post-training approaches such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Videos are available at https://reflect-vlm.github.io.

A world model enables an intelligent agent to imagine, predict, and reason about how the world evolves in response to its actions, and accordingly to plan and strategize. While recent video generation models produce realistic visual sequences, they typically operate in the prompt-to-full-video manner without causal control, interactivity, or long-horizon consistency required for purposeful reasoning. Existing world modeling efforts, on the other hand, often focus on restricted domains (e.g., physical, game, or 3D-scene dynamics) with limited depth and controllability, and struggle to generalize across diverse environments and interaction formats. In this work, we introduce PAN, a general, interactable, and long-horizon world model that predicts future world states through high-quality video simulation conditioned on history and natural language actions. PAN employs the Generative Latent Prediction (GLP) architecture that combines an autoregressive latent dynamics backbone based on a large language model (LLM), which grounds simulation in extensive text-based knowledge and enables conditioning on language-specified actions, with a video diffusion decoder that reconstructs perceptually detailed and temporally coherent visual observations, to achieve a unification between latent space reasoning (imagination) and realizable world dynamics (reality). Trained on large-scale video-action pairs spanning diverse domains, PAN supports open-domain, action-conditioned simulation with coherent, long-term dynamics. Extensive experiments show that PAN achieves strong performance in action-conditioned world simulation, long-horizon forecasting, and simulative reasoning compared to other video generators and world models, taking a step towards general world models that enable predictive simulation of future world states for reasoning and acting.

World models have demonstrated impressive performance on robotic learning tasks. Many such tasks inherently demand multimodal reasoning; for example, filling a bottle with water will lead to visual information alone being ambiguous or incomplete, thereby requiring reasoning over the temporal evolution of audio, accounting for its underlying physical properties and pitch patterns. In this paper, we propose a generative latent flow matching model to anticipate future audio observations, enabling the system to reason about long-term consequences when integrated into a robot policy. We demonstrate the superior capabilities of our system through two manipulation tasks that require perceiving in-the-wild audio or music signals, compared to methods without future lookahead. We further emphasize that successful robot action learning for these tasks relies not merely on multi-modal input, but critically on the accurate prediction of future audio states that embody intrinsic rhythmic patterns.

Videos of robots interacting with objects encode rich information about the objects' dynamics. However, existing video prediction approaches typically do not explicitly account for the 3D information from videos, such as robot actions and objects' 3D states, limiting their use in real-world robotic applications. In this work, we introduce a framework to learn object dynamics directly from multi-view RGB videos by explicitly considering the robot's action trajectories and their effects on scene dynamics. We utilize the 3D Gaussian representation of 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) to train a particle-based dynamics model using Graph Neural Networks. This model operates on sparse control particles downsampled from the densely tracked 3D Gaussian reconstructions. By learning the neural dynamics model on offline robot interaction data, our method can predict object motions under varying initial configurations and unseen robot actions. The 3D transformations of Gaussians can be interpolated from the motions of control particles, enabling the rendering of predicted future object states and achieving action-conditioned video prediction. The dynamics model can also be applied to model-based planning frameworks for object manipulation tasks. We conduct experiments on various kinds of deformable materials, including ropes, clothes, and stuffed animals, demonstrating our framework's ability to model complex shapes and dynamics. Our project page is available at https://gs-dynamics.github.io.

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

The concept of world models has garnered significant attention due to advancements in multimodal large language models such as GPT-4 and video generation models such as Sora, which are central to the pursuit of artificial general intelligence. This survey offers a comprehensive review of the literature on world models. Generally, world models are regarded as tools for either understanding the present state of the world or predicting its future dynamics. This review presents a systematic categorization of world models, emphasizing two primary functions: (1) constructing internal representations to understand the mechanisms of the world, and (2) predicting future states to simulate and guide decision-making. Initially, we examine the current progress in these two categories. We then explore the application of world models in key domains, including generative games, autonomous driving, robotics, and social simulacra, with a focus on how each domain utilizes these aspects. Finally, we outline key challenges and provide insights into potential future research directions. We summarize the representative papers along with their code repositories in https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/World-Model.

Common language models typically predict the next word given the context. In this work, we propose a method that improves language modeling by learning to align the given context and the following phrase. The model does not require any linguistic annotation of phrase segmentation. Instead, we define syntactic heights and phrase segmentation rules, enabling the model to automatically induce phrases, recognize their task-specific heads, and generate phrase embeddings in an unsupervised learning manner. Our method can easily be applied to language models with different network architectures since an independent module is used for phrase induction and context-phrase alignment, and no change is required in the underlying language modeling network. Experiments have shown that our model outperformed several strong baseline models on different data sets. We achieved a new state-of-the-art performance of 17.4 perplexity on the Wikitext-103 dataset. Additionally, visualizing the outputs of the phrase induction module showed that our model is able to learn approximate phrase-level structural knowledge without any annotation.

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

World models integrate raw data from various modalities, such as images and language to simulate comprehensive interactions in the world, thereby displaying crucial roles in fields like mixed reality and robotics. Yet, applying the world model for accurate video prediction is quite challenging due to the complex and dynamic intentions of the various scenes in practice. In this paper, inspired by the human rethinking process, we decompose the complex video prediction into four meta-tasks that enable the world model to handle this issue in a more fine-grained manner. Alongside these tasks, we introduce a new benchmark named Embodied Video Anticipation Benchmark (EVA-Bench) to provide a well-rounded evaluation. EVA-Bench focused on evaluating the video prediction ability of human and robot actions, presenting significant challenges for both the language model and the generation model. Targeting embodied video prediction, we propose the Embodied Video Anticipator (EVA), a unified framework aiming at video understanding and generation. EVA integrates a video generation model with a visual language model, effectively combining reasoning capabilities with high-quality generation. Moreover, to enhance the generalization of our framework, we tailor-designed a multi-stage pretraining paradigm that adaptatively ensembles LoRA to produce high-fidelity results. Extensive experiments on EVA-Bench highlight the potential of EVA to significantly improve performance in embodied scenes, paving the way for large-scale pre-trained models in real-world prediction tasks.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image generation tasks, including image editing and video creation, representing a good understanding of the physical world. On the other line, diffusion models have also shown promise in robotic control tasks by denoising actions, known as diffusion policy. Although the diffusion generative model and diffusion policy exhibit distinct capabilities--image prediction and robotic action, respectively--they technically follow a similar denoising process. In robotic tasks, the ability to predict future images and generate actions is highly correlated since they share the same underlying dynamics of the physical world. Building on this insight, we introduce PAD, a novel visual policy learning framework that unifies image Prediction and robot Action within a joint Denoising process. Specifically, PAD utilizes Diffusion Transformers (DiT) to seamlessly integrate images and robot states, enabling the simultaneous prediction of future images and robot actions. Additionally, PAD supports co-training on both robotic demonstrations and large-scale video datasets and can be easily extended to other robotic modalities, such as depth images. PAD outperforms previous methods, achieving a significant 26.3% relative improvement on the full Metaworld benchmark, by utilizing a single text-conditioned visual policy within a data-efficient imitation learning setting. Furthermore, PAD demonstrates superior generalization to unseen tasks in real-world robot manipulation settings with 28.0% success rate increase compared to the strongest baseline. Project page at https://sites.google.com/view/pad-paper

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix). In comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) machine learning (ML) weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times, its skill is only about one day behind both SOTA ML forecast models and the SOTA numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report several improvements in model design, including switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that successfully propagate weather patterns across the globe without requiring separate kernels for the polar and equatorial faces of the cube sphere. Without any loss of spectral power after the first two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations.

Reasoning models have achieved remarkable performance on tasks like math and logical reasoning thanks to their ability to search during reasoning. However, they still suffer from overthinking, often performing unnecessary reasoning steps even after reaching the correct answer. This raises the question: can models evaluate the correctness of their intermediate answers during reasoning? In this work, we study whether reasoning models encode information about answer correctness through probing the model's hidden states. The resulting probe can verify intermediate answers with high accuracy and produces highly calibrated scores. Additionally, we find models' hidden states encode correctness of future answers, enabling early prediction of the correctness before the intermediate answer is fully formulated. We then use the probe as a verifier to decide whether to exit reasoning at intermediate answers during inference, reducing the number of inference tokens by 24\% without compromising performance. These findings confirm that reasoning models do encode a notion of correctness yet fail to exploit it, revealing substantial untapped potential to enhance their efficiency.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

This paper presents RynnVLA-001, a vision-language-action(VLA) model built upon large-scale video generative pretraining from human demonstrations. We propose a novel two-stage pretraining methodology. The first stage, Ego-Centric Video Generative Pretraining, trains an Image-to-Video model on 12M ego-centric manipulation videos to predict future frames conditioned on an initial frame and a language instruction. The second stage, Human-Centric Trajectory-Aware Modeling, extends this by jointly predicting future keypoint trajectories, thereby effectively bridging visual frame prediction with action prediction. Furthermore, to enhance action representation, we propose ActionVAE, a variational autoencoder that compresses sequences of actions into compact latent embeddings, reducing the complexity of the VLA output space. When finetuned on the same downstream robotics datasets, RynnVLA-001 achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating that the proposed pretraining strategy provides a more effective initialization for VLA models.

Vision-Language Action (VLA) models significantly advance robotic manipulation by leveraging the strong perception capabilities of pretrained vision-language models (VLMs). By integrating action modules into these pretrained models, VLA methods exhibit improved generalization. However, training them from scratch is costly. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective distillation-based framework that equips VLMs with action-execution capability by transferring knowledge from pretrained small action models. Our architecture retains the original VLM structure, adding only an action token and a state encoder to incorporate physical inputs. To distill action knowledge, we adopt a two-stage training strategy. First, we perform lightweight alignment by mapping VLM hidden states into the action space of the small action model, enabling effective reuse of its pretrained action decoder and avoiding expensive pretraining. Second, we selectively fine-tune the language model, state encoder, and action modules, enabling the system to integrate multimodal inputs with precise action generation. Specifically, the action token provides the VLM with a direct handle for predicting future actions, while the state encoder allows the model to incorporate robot dynamics not captured by vision alone. This design yields substantial efficiency gains over training large VLA models from scratch. Compared with previous state-of-the-art methods, our method achieves 97.3% average success rate on LIBERO (11.8% improvement) and 93.5% on LIBERO-LONG (24.5% improvement). In real-world experiments across five manipulation tasks, our method consistently outperforms the teacher model, achieving 82.0% success rate (17% improvement), which demonstrate that action distillation effectively enables VLMs to generate precise actions while substantially reducing training costs.

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

In this paper, we propose FinVis-GPT, a novel multimodal large language model (LLM) specifically designed for financial chart analysis. By leveraging the power of LLMs and incorporating instruction tuning and multimodal capabilities, FinVis-GPT is capable of interpreting financial charts and providing valuable analysis. To train FinVis-GPT, a financial task oriented dataset was generated for pre-training alignment and instruction tuning, comprising various types of financial charts and their corresponding descriptions. We evaluate the model performance via several case studies due to the time limit, and the promising results demonstrated that FinVis-GPT is superior in various financial chart related tasks, including generating descriptions, answering questions and predicting future market trends, surpassing existing state-of-the-art multimodal LLMs. The proposed FinVis-GPT serves as a pioneering effort in utilizing multimodal LLMs in the finance domain and our generated dataset will be release for public use in the near future to speedup related research.

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.

Recently, unsupervised representation learning (URL) has improved the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by pretraining a model from a large unlabeled dataset. The underlying principle of these methods is to learn temporally predictive representations by predicting future states in the latent space. However, an important challenge of this approach is the representational collapse, where the subspace of the latent representations collapses into a low-dimensional manifold. To address this issue, we propose a novel URL framework that causally predicts future states while increasing the dimension of the latent manifold by decorrelating the features in the latent space. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that our framework effectively learns predictive representations without collapse, which significantly improves the sample efficiency of state-of-the-art URL methods on the Atari 100k benchmark. The code is available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/SimTPR.

Learning world models can teach an agent how the world works in an unsupervised manner. Even though it can be viewed as a special case of sequence modeling, progress for scaling world models on robotic applications such as autonomous driving has been somewhat less rapid than scaling language models with Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT). We identify two reasons as major bottlenecks: dealing with complex and unstructured observation space, and having a scalable generative model. Consequently, we propose a novel world modeling approach that first tokenizes sensor observations with VQVAE, then predicts the future via discrete diffusion. To efficiently decode and denoise tokens in parallel, we recast Masked Generative Image Transformer into the discrete diffusion framework with a few simple changes, resulting in notable improvement. When applied to learning world models on point cloud observations, our model reduces prior SOTA Chamfer distance by more than 65% for 1s prediction, and more than 50% for 3s prediction, across NuScenes, KITTI Odometry, and Argoverse2 datasets. Our results demonstrate that discrete diffusion on tokenized agent experience can unlock the power of GPT-like unsupervised learning for robotic agents.

Ensuring safe navigation in complex environments requires accurate real-time traversability assessment and understanding of environmental interactions relative to the robot`s capabilities. Traditional methods, which assume simplified dynamics, often require designing and tuning cost functions to safely guide paths or actions toward the goal. This process is tedious, environment-dependent, and not generalizable. To overcome these issues, we propose a novel learned perceptive Forward Dynamics Model (FDM) that predicts the robot`s future state conditioned on the surrounding geometry and history of proprioceptive measurements, proposing a more scalable, safer, and heuristic-free solution. The FDM is trained on multiple years of simulated navigation experience, including high-risk maneuvers, and real-world interactions to incorporate the full system dynamics beyond rigid body simulation. We integrate our perceptive FDM into a zero-shot Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) planning framework, leveraging the learned mapping between actions, future states, and failure probability. This allows for optimizing a simplified cost function, eliminating the need for extensive cost-tuning to ensure safety. On the legged robot ANYmal, the proposed perceptive FDM improves the position estimation by on average 41% over competitive baselines, which translates into a 27% higher navigation success rate in rough simulation environments. Moreover, we demonstrate effective sim-to-real transfer and showcase the benefit of training on synthetic and real data. Code and models are made publicly available under https://github.com/leggedrobotics/fdm.

World foundation models, which simulate the physical world by predicting future states from current observations and inputs, have become central to many applications in physical intelligence, including autonomous driving and robotics. However, these models require substantial computational resources for pretraining and are further constrained by available data during post-training. As such, scaling computation at test time emerges as both a critical and practical alternative to traditional model enlargement or re-training. In this work, we introduce SWIFT, a test-time scaling framework tailored for WFMs. SWIFT integrates our extensible WFM evaluation toolkit with process-level inference strategies, including fast tokenization, probability-based Top-K pruning, and efficient beam search. Empirical results on the COSMOS model demonstrate that test-time scaling exists even in a compute-optimal way. Our findings reveal that test-time scaling laws hold for WFMs and that SWIFT provides a scalable and effective pathway for improving WFM inference without retraining or increasing model size. The code is available at https://github.com/Mia-Cong/SWIFT.git.

Video-language pre-trained models have shown remarkable success in guiding video question-answering (VideoQA) tasks. However, due to the length of video sequences, training large-scale video-based models incurs considerably higher costs than training image-based ones. This motivates us to leverage the knowledge from image-based pretraining, despite the obvious gaps between image and video domains. To bridge these gaps, in this paper, we propose Tem-Adapter, which enables the learning of temporal dynamics and complex semantics by a visual Temporal Aligner and a textual Semantic Aligner. Unlike conventional pretrained knowledge adaptation methods that only concentrate on the downstream task objective, the Temporal Aligner introduces an extra language-guided autoregressive task aimed at facilitating the learning of temporal dependencies, with the objective of predicting future states based on historical clues and language guidance that describes event progression. Besides, to reduce the semantic gap and adapt the textual representation for better event description, we introduce a Semantic Aligner that first designs a template to fuse question and answer pairs as event descriptions and then learns a Transformer decoder with the whole video sequence as guidance for refinement. We evaluate Tem-Adapter and different pre-train transferring methods on two VideoQA benchmarks, and the significant performance improvement demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Visual language models (VLMs) have attracted increasing interest in autonomous driving due to their powerful reasoning capabilities. However, existing VLMs typically utilize discrete text Chain-of-Thought (CoT) tailored to the current scenario, which essentially represents highly abstract and symbolic compression of visual information, potentially leading to spatio-temporal relationship ambiguity and fine-grained information loss. Is autonomous driving better modeled on real-world simulation and imagination than on pure symbolic logic? In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal CoT reasoning method that enables models to think visually. First, VLM serves as a world model to generate unified image frame for predicting future world states: where perception results (e.g., lane divider and 3D detection) represent the future spatial relationships, and ordinary future frame represent the temporal evolution relationships. This spatio-temporal CoT then serves as intermediate reasoning steps, enabling the VLM to function as an inverse dynamics model for trajectory planning based on current observations and future predictions. To implement visual generation in VLMs, we propose a unified pretraining paradigm integrating visual generation and understanding, along with a progressive visual CoT enhancing autoregressive image generation. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, advancing autonomous driving towards visual reasoning.

Audio-visual event parsing plays a crucial role in understanding multimodal video content, but existing methods typically rely on offline processing of entire videos with huge model sizes, limiting their real-time applicability. We introduce Online Audio-Visual Event Parsing (On-AVEP), a novel paradigm for parsing audio, visual, and audio-visual events by sequentially analyzing incoming video streams. The On-AVEP task necessitates models with two key capabilities: (1) Accurate online inference, to effectively distinguish events with unclear and limited context in online settings, and (2) Real-time efficiency, to balance high performance with computational constraints. To cultivate these, we propose the Predictive Future Modeling (PreFM) framework featured by (a) predictive multimodal future modeling to infer and integrate beneficial future audio-visual cues, thereby enhancing contextual understanding and (b) modality-agnostic robust representation along with focal temporal prioritization to improve precision and generalization. Extensive experiments on the UnAV-100 and LLP datasets show PreFM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin with significantly fewer parameters, offering an insightful approach for real-time multimodal video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/XiaoYu-1123/PreFM.

We introduce Future LAtent REpresentation Alignment (FLARE), a novel framework that integrates predictive latent world modeling into robot policy learning. By aligning features from a diffusion transformer with latent embeddings of future observations, FLARE enables a diffusion transformer policy to anticipate latent representations of future observations, allowing it to reason about long-term consequences while generating actions. Remarkably lightweight, FLARE requires only minimal architectural modifications -- adding a few tokens to standard vision-language-action (VLA) models -- yet delivers substantial performance gains. Across two challenging multitask simulation imitation learning benchmarks spanning single-arm and humanoid tabletop manipulation, FLARE achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior policy learning baselines by up to 26%. Moreover, FLARE unlocks the ability to co-train with human egocentric video demonstrations without action labels, significantly boosting policy generalization to a novel object with unseen geometry with as few as a single robot demonstration. Our results establish FLARE as a general and scalable approach for combining implicit world modeling with high-frequency robotic control.