Daily Papers

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a de-facto approach for aligning language models with human preferences. Recent work has shown DPO's effectiveness relies on training data quality. In particular, clear quality differences between preferred and rejected responses enhance learning performance. Current methods for identifying and obtaining such high-quality samples demand additional resources or external models. We discover that reference model probability space naturally detects high-quality training samples. Using this insight, we present a sampling strategy that achieves consistent improvements (+0.1 to +0.4) on MT-Bench while using less than half (30-50%) of the training data. We observe substantial improvements (+0.4 to +0.98) for technical tasks (coding, math, and reasoning) across multiple models and hyperparameter settings.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is an increasingly popular technique that aims to represent entities and relations of knowledge graphs into low-dimensional semantic spaces for a wide spectrum of applications such as link prediction, knowledge reasoning and knowledge completion. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of existing KGE techniques based on representation spaces. Particularly, we build a fine-grained classification to categorise the models based on three mathematical perspectives of the representation spaces: (1) Algebraic perspective, (2) Geometric perspective, and (3) Analytical perspective. We introduce the rigorous definitions of fundamental mathematical spaces before diving into KGE models and their mathematical properties. We further discuss different KGE methods over the three categories, as well as summarise how spatial advantages work over different embedding needs. By collating the experimental results from downstream tasks, we also explore the advantages of mathematical space in different scenarios and the reasons behind them. We further state some promising research directions from a representation space perspective, with which we hope to inspire researchers to design their KGE models as well as their related applications with more consideration of their mathematical space properties.

This is the first work to look at the application of large language models (LLMs) for the purpose of model space edits in automated planning tasks. To set the stage for this union, we explore two different flavors of model space problems that have been studied in the AI planning literature and explore the effect of an LLM on those tasks. We empirically demonstrate how the performance of an LLM contrasts with combinatorial search (CS) -- an approach that has been traditionally used to solve model space tasks in planning, both with the LLM in the role of a standalone model space reasoner as well as in the role of a statistical signal in concert with the CS approach as part of a two-stage process. Our experiments show promising results suggesting further forays of LLMs into the exciting world of model space reasoning for planning tasks in the future.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling has shown success in many practical problems. In this paper, we propose an SMC augmented by HMC (HSMC) for inference and model learning of nonlinear SSM, which can exempt us from learning proposals and reduce the model complexity significantly. Based on the measure preserving property of HMC, the particles directly generated by transition function can approximate the posterior of latent states arbitrarily well. In order to better adapt to the local geometry of latent space, the HMC is conducted on Riemannian manifold defined by a positive definite metric. In addition, we show that the proposed HSMC method can improve SSMs realized by both Gaussian Processes (GP) and Neural Network (NN).

Understanding geometric properties of natural language processing models' latent spaces allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model's latent space, or how fully the available latent space is being used. In this work, we define data spread and demonstrate that the commonly used measures of data spread, Average Cosine Similarity and a partition function min/max ratio I(V), do not provide reliable metrics to compare the use of latent space across models. We propose and examine eight alternative measures of data spread, all but one of which improve over these current metrics when applied to seven synthetic data distributions. Of our proposed measures, we recommend one principal component-based measure and one entropy-based measure that provide reliable, relative measures of spread and can be used to compare models of different sizes and dimensionalities.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Most research about natural language generation (NLG) relies on evaluation benchmarks with limited references for a sample, which may result in poor correlations with human judgements. The underlying reason is that one semantic meaning can actually be expressed in different forms, and the evaluation with a single or few references may not accurately reflect the quality of the model's hypotheses. To address this issue, this paper presents a simple and effective method, named Div-Ref, to enhance existing evaluation benchmarks by enriching the number of references. We leverage large language models (LLMs) to diversify the expression of a single reference into multiple high-quality ones to cover the semantic space of the reference sentence as much as possible. We conduct comprehensive experiments to empirically demonstrate that diversifying the expression of reference can significantly enhance the correlation between automatic evaluation and human evaluation. This idea is compatible with recent LLM-based evaluation which can similarly derive advantages from incorporating multiple references. We strongly encourage future generation benchmarks to include more references, even if they are generated by LLMs, which is once for all. We release all the code and data at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/Div-Ref to facilitate research.

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function piproptoe^{-U} is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success and demonstrated superior performance across various tasks, including natural language processing (NLP), weather forecasting, biological protein folding, text generation, and solving mathematical problems. However, many real-world data exhibit highly non-Euclidean latent hierarchical anatomy, such as protein networks, transportation networks, financial networks, brain networks, and linguistic structures or syntactic trees in natural languages. Effectively learning intrinsic semantic entailment and hierarchical relationships from these raw, unstructured input data using LLMs remains an underexplored area. Due to its effectiveness in modeling tree-like hierarchical structures, hyperbolic geometry -- a non-Euclidean space -- has rapidly gained popularity as an expressive latent representation space for complex data modeling across domains such as graphs, images, languages, and multi-modal data. Here, we provide a comprehensive and contextual exposition of recent advancements in LLMs that leverage hyperbolic geometry as a representation space to enhance semantic representation learning and multi-scale reasoning. Specifically, the paper presents a taxonomy of the principal techniques of Hyperbolic LLMs (HypLLMs) in terms of four main categories: (1) hyperbolic LLMs through exp/log maps; (2) hyperbolic fine-tuned models; (3) fully hyperbolic LLMs, and (4) hyperbolic state-space models. We also explore crucial potential applications and outline future research directions. A repository of key papers, models, datasets, and code implementations is available at https://github.com/sarangp2402/Hyperbolic-LLM-Models/tree/main.

With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to various domains, concerns regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs in safety-critical scenarios have been raised, due to their unpredictable tendency to hallucinate and generate misinformation. Existing LLMs do not have an inherent functionality to provide the users with an uncertainty/confidence metric for each response it generates, making it difficult to evaluate trustworthiness. Although several studies aim to develop uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, they have fundamental limitations, such as being restricted to classification tasks, requiring additional training and data, considering only lexical instead of semantic information, and being prompt-wise but not response-wise. A new framework is proposed in this paper to address these issues. Semantic density extracts uncertainty/confidence information for each response from a probability distribution perspective in semantic space. It has no restriction on task types and is "off-the-shelf" for new models and tasks. Experiments on seven state-of-the-art LLMs, including the latest Llama 3 and Mixtral-8x22B models, on four free-form question-answering benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance and robustness of semantic density compared to prior approaches.

Unsupervised learning of probabilistic models is a central yet challenging problem in machine learning. Specifically, designing models with tractable learning, sampling, inference and evaluation is crucial in solving this task. We extend the space of such models using real-valued non-volume preserving (real NVP) transformations, a set of powerful invertible and learnable transformations, resulting in an unsupervised learning algorithm with exact log-likelihood computation, exact sampling, exact inference of latent variables, and an interpretable latent space. We demonstrate its ability to model natural images on four datasets through sampling, log-likelihood evaluation and latent variable manipulations.

To compare autoregressive language models at scale, we propose using log-likelihood vectors computed on a predefined text set as model features. This approach has a solid theoretical basis: when treated as model coordinates, their squared Euclidean distance approximates the Kullback-Leibler divergence of text-generation probabilities. Our method is highly scalable, with computational cost growing linearly in both the number of models and text samples, and is easy to implement as the required features are derived from cross-entropy loss. Applying this method to over 1,000 language models, we constructed a "model map," providing a new perspective on large-scale model analysis.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a milestone in artificial intelligence, and their performance can improve as the model size increases. However, this scaling brings great challenges to training and inference efficiency, particularly for deploying LLMs in resource-constrained environments, and the scaling trend is becoming increasingly unsustainable. This paper introduces the concept of ``capacity density'' as a new metric to evaluate the quality of the LLMs across different scales and describes the trend of LLMs in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. To calculate the capacity density of a given target LLM, we first introduce a set of reference models and develop a scaling law to predict the downstream performance of these reference models based on their parameter sizes. We then define the effective parameter size of the target LLM as the parameter size required by a reference model to achieve equivalent performance, and formalize the capacity density as the ratio of the effective parameter size to the actual parameter size of the target LLM. Capacity density provides a unified framework for assessing both model effectiveness and efficiency. Our further analysis of recent open-source base LLMs reveals an empirical law (the densing law)that the capacity density of LLMs grows exponentially over time. More specifically, using some widely used benchmarks for evaluation, the capacity density of LLMs doubles approximately every three months. The law provides new perspectives to guide future LLM development, emphasizing the importance of improving capacity density to achieve optimal results with minimal computational overhead.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior of the model. In this work, we investigate a variety of uncertainty measures, in order to identify measures that correlate with human group-level uncertainty. We find that Bayesian measures and a variation on entropy measures, top-k entropy, tend to agree with human behavior as a function of model size. We find that some strong measures decrease in human-similarity with model size, but, by multiple linear regression, we find that combining multiple uncertainty measures provide comparable human-alignment with reduced size-dependency.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various applications, fundamentally reshaping the landscape of natural language processing (NLP) research. However, recent evaluation frameworks often rely on the output probabilities of LLMs for predictions, primarily due to computational constraints, diverging from real-world LLM usage scenarios. While widely employed, the efficacy of these probability-based evaluation strategies remains an open research question. This study aims to scrutinize the validity of such probability-based evaluation methods within the context of using LLMs for Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs), highlighting their inherent limitations. Our empirical investigation reveals that the prevalent probability-based evaluation method inadequately aligns with generation-based prediction. Furthermore, current evaluation frameworks typically assess LLMs through predictive tasks based on output probabilities rather than directly generating responses, owing to computational limitations. We illustrate that these probability-based approaches do not effectively correspond with generative predictions. The outcomes of our study can enhance the understanding of LLM evaluation methodologies and provide insights for future research in this domain.

Planning remains one of the last standing bastions for large language models (LLMs), which now turn their attention to search. Most of the literature uses the language models as world models to define the search space, forgoing soundness for the sake of flexibility. A recent work, Thought of Search (ToS), proposed defining the search space with code, having the language models produce that code. ToS requires a human in the loop, collaboratively producing a sound successor function and goal test. The result, however, is worth the effort: all the tested datasets were solved with 100% accuracy. At the same time LLMs have demonstrated significant progress in code generation and refinement for complex reasoning tasks. In this work, we automate ToS (AutoToS), completely taking the human out of the loop of solving planning problems. AutoToS guides the language model step by step towards the generation of sound and complete search components, through feedback from both generic and domain specific unit tests. We achieve 100% accuracy, with minimal feedback iterations, using LLMs of various sizes on all evaluated domains.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently emerged as an effective tool to assist individuals in writing various types of content, including professional documents such as recommendation letters. Though bringing convenience, this application also introduces unprecedented fairness concerns. Model-generated reference letters might be directly used by users in professional scenarios. If underlying biases exist in these model-constructed letters, using them without scrutinization could lead to direct societal harms, such as sabotaging application success rates for female applicants. In light of this pressing issue, it is imminent and necessary to comprehensively study fairness issues and associated harms in this real-world use case. In this paper, we critically examine gender biases in LLM-generated reference letters. Drawing inspiration from social science findings, we design evaluation methods to manifest biases through 2 dimensions: (1) biases in language style and (2) biases in lexical content. We further investigate the extent of bias propagation by analyzing the hallucination bias of models, a term that we define to be bias exacerbation in model-hallucinated contents. Through benchmarking evaluation on 2 popular LLMs- ChatGPT and Alpaca, we reveal significant gender biases in LLM-generated recommendation letters. Our findings not only warn against using LLMs for this application without scrutinization, but also illuminate the importance of thoroughly studying hidden biases and harms in LLM-generated professional documents.

Reference resolution is an important problem, one that is essential to understand and successfully handle context of different kinds. This context includes both previous turns and context that pertains to non-conversational entities, such as entities on the user's screen or those running in the background. While LLMs have been shown to be extremely powerful for a variety of tasks, their use in reference resolution, particularly for non-conversational entities, remains underutilized. This paper demonstrates how LLMs can be used to create an extremely effective system to resolve references of various types, by showing how reference resolution can be converted into a language modeling problem, despite involving forms of entities like those on screen that are not traditionally conducive to being reduced to a text-only modality. We demonstrate large improvements over an existing system with similar functionality across different types of references, with our smallest model obtaining absolute gains of over 5% for on-screen references. We also benchmark against GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, with our smallest model achieving performance comparable to that of GPT-4, and our larger models substantially outperforming it.

Language models (LMs) are being scaled and becoming powerful. Improving their efficiency is one of the core research topics in neural information processing systems. Tay et al. (2022) provided a comprehensive overview of efficient Transformers that have become an indispensable staple in the field of NLP. However, in the section of "On Evaluation", they left an open question "which fundamental efficient Transformer one should consider," answered by "still a mystery" because "many research papers select their own benchmarks." Unfortunately, there was not quantitative analysis about the performances of Transformers on any benchmarks. Moreover, state space models (SSMs) have demonstrated their abilities of modeling long-range sequences with non-attention mechanisms, which were not discussed in the prior review. This article makes a meta analysis on the results from a set of papers on efficient Transformers as well as those on SSMs. It provides a quantitative review on LM efficiency research and gives suggestions for future research.

Machine learning models -- including prominent zero-shot models -- are often trained on datasets whose labels are only a small proportion of a larger label space. Such spaces are commonly equipped with a metric that relates the labels via distances between them. We propose a simple approach to exploit this information to adapt the trained model to reliably predict new classes -- or, in the case of zero-shot prediction, to improve its performance -- without any additional training. Our technique is a drop-in replacement of the standard prediction rule, swapping argmax with the Fr\'echet mean. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis for this approach, studying (i) learning-theoretic results trading off label space diameter, sample complexity, and model dimension, (ii) characterizations of the full range of scenarios in which it is possible to predict any unobserved class, and (iii) an optimal active learning-like next class selection procedure to obtain optimal training classes for when it is not possible to predict the entire range of unobserved classes. Empirically, using easily-available external metrics, our proposed approach, Loki, gains up to 29.7% relative improvement over SimCLR on ImageNet and scales to hundreds of thousands of classes. When no such metric is available, Loki can use self-derived metrics from class embeddings and obtains a 10.5% improvement on pretrained zero-shot models such as CLIP.

Plenty of existing work has analyzed the abilities of the transformer architecture by describing its representational capacity with formal models of computation. However, the focus so far has been on analyzing the architecture in terms of language acceptance. We contend that this is an ill-suited problem in the study of language models (LMs), which are definitionally probability distributions over strings. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between transformer LMs and n-gram LMs, a simple and historically relevant class of language models. We show that transformer LMs using the hard or sparse attention mechanisms can exactly represent any n-gram LM, giving us a concrete lower bound on their probabilistic representational capacity. This provides a first step towards understanding the mechanisms that transformer LMs can use to represent probability distributions over strings.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

In deep learning, performance is strongly affected by the choice of architecture and hyperparameters. While there has been extensive work on automatic hyperparameter optimization for simple spaces, complex spaces such as the space of deep architectures remain largely unexplored. As a result, the choice of architecture is done manually by the human expert through a slow trial and error process guided mainly by intuition. In this paper we describe a framework for automatically designing and training deep models. We propose an extensible and modular language that allows the human expert to compactly represent complex search spaces over architectures and their hyperparameters. The resulting search spaces are tree-structured and therefore easy to traverse. Models can be automatically compiled to computational graphs once values for all hyperparameters have been chosen. We can leverage the structure of the search space to introduce different model search algorithms, such as random search, Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), and sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). We present experiments comparing the different algorithms on CIFAR-10 and show that MCTS and SMBO outperform random search. In addition, these experiments show that our framework can be used effectively for model discovery, as it is possible to describe expressive search spaces and discover competitive models without much effort from the human expert. Code for our framework and experiments has been made publicly available.

We give a geometry of interaction model for a typed lambda-calculus endowed with operators for sampling from a continuous uniform distribution and soft conditioning, namely a paradigmatic calculus for higher-order Bayesian programming. The model is based on the category of measurable spaces and partial measurable functions, and is proved adequate with respect to both a distribution-based and a sampling based operational semantics.

Recent work proposed state-space models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to transformer-based LLMs. Can these models be pruned to further reduce their computation costs? We adapt several pruning methods to the SSM structure, and apply them to four SSM-based LLMs across multiple tasks. We find that such models are quite robust to some pruning methods (e.g. WANDA), while using other methods lead to fast performance degradation.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently demonstrated competitive performance to transformers at large-scale language modeling benchmarks while achieving linear time and memory complexity as a function of sequence length. Mamba, a recently released SSM model, shows impressive performance in both language modeling and long sequence processing tasks. Simultaneously, mixture-of-expert (MoE) models have shown remarkable performance while significantly reducing the compute and latency costs of inference at the expense of a larger memory footprint. In this paper, we present BlackMamba, a novel architecture that combines the Mamba SSM with MoE to obtain the benefits of both. We demonstrate that BlackMamba performs competitively against both Mamba and transformer baselines, and outperforms in inference and training FLOPs. We fully train and open-source 340M/1.5B and 630M/2.8B BlackMamba models on 300B tokens of a custom dataset. We show that BlackMamba inherits and combines both of the benefits of SSM and MoE architectures, combining linear-complexity generation from SSM with cheap and fast inference from MoE. We release all weights, checkpoints, and inference code open-source. Inference code at: https://github.com/Zyphra/BlackMamba

Statements involving metalinguistic self-reference ("This paper has six sections.") are prevalent in many domains. Can large language models (LLMs) handle such language? In this paper, we present "I am a Strange Dataset", a new dataset for addressing this question. There are two subtasks: generation and verification. In generation, models continue statements like "The penultimate word in this sentence is" (where a correct continuation is "is"). In verification, models judge the truth of statements like "The penultimate word in this sentence is sentence." (false). We also provide minimally different metalinguistic non-self-reference examples to complement the main dataset by probing for whether models can handle metalinguistic language at all. The dataset is hand-crafted by experts and validated by non-expert annotators. We test a variety of open-source LLMs (7B to 70B parameters) as well as closed-source LLMs through APIs. All models perform close to chance across both subtasks and even on the non-self-referential metalinguistic control data, though we find some steady improvement with model scale. GPT 4 is the only model to consistently do significantly better than chance, and it is still only in the 60% range, while our untrained human annotators score well in the 89-93% range. The dataset and evaluation toolkit are available at https://github.com/TristanThrush/i-am-a-strange-dataset.

Retrieval-based language models (R-LM) model the probability of natural language text by combining a standard language model (LM) with examples retrieved from an external datastore at test time. While effective, a major bottleneck of using these models in practice is the computationally costly datastore search, which can be performed as frequently as every time step. In this paper, we present RetoMaton - retrieval automaton - which approximates the datastore search, based on (1) saving pointers between consecutive datastore entries, and (2) clustering of entries into "states". This effectively results in a weighted finite automaton built on top of the datastore, instead of representing the datastore as a flat list. The creation of the automaton is unsupervised, and a RetoMaton can be constructed from any text collection: either the original training corpus or from another domain. Traversing this automaton at inference time, in parallel to the LM inference, reduces its perplexity by up to 1.85, or alternatively saves up to 83% of the nearest neighbor searches over kNN-LM (Khandelwal et al., 2020) without hurting perplexity. Our code and trained models are available at https://github.com/neulab/retomaton .

Vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP and SigLIP, have found remarkable success in classification, retrieval, and generative tasks. For this, VLMs deterministically map images and text descriptions to a joint latent space in which their similarity is assessed using the cosine similarity. However, a deterministic mapping of inputs fails to capture uncertainties over concepts arising from domain shifts when used in downstream tasks. In this work, we propose post-hoc uncertainty estimation in VLMs that does not require additional training. Our method leverages a Bayesian posterior approximation over the last layers in VLMs and analytically quantifies uncertainties over cosine similarities. We demonstrate its effectiveness for uncertainty quantification and support set selection in active learning. Compared to baselines, we obtain improved and well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, interpretable uncertainty estimates, and sample-efficient active learning. Our results show promise for safety-critical applications of large-scale models.

State Space Models (SSMs) have become the leading alternative to Transformers for sequence modeling. Their primary advantage is efficiency in long-context and long-form generation, enabled by fixed-size memory and linear scaling of computational complexity. We begin this work by showing a simple theoretical result stating that SSMs cannot accurately solve any ``truly long-form'' generation problem (in a sense we formally define), undermining their main competitive advantage. However, we show that this limitation can be mitigated by allowing SSMs interactive access to external tools. In fact, we show that given the right choice of tool access and problem-dependent training data, SSMs can learn to solve any tractable problem and generalize to arbitrary problem length/complexity (i.e., achieve length generalization). Following our theoretical finding, we demonstrate that tool-augmented SSMs achieve remarkable length generalization on a variety of arithmetic, reasoning, and coding tasks. These findings highlight SSMs as a potential efficient alternative to Transformers in interactive tool-based and agentic settings.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

Understanding the world and explaining it with scientific theories is a central aspiration of artificial intelligence research. Proposing theories, designing experiments to test them, and then revising them based on data are fundamental to scientific discovery. Despite the significant promise of LLM-based scientific agents, no benchmarks systematically test LLM's ability to propose scientific models, collect experimental data, and revise them in light of new data. We introduce BoxingGym, a benchmark with 10 environments for systematically evaluating both experimental design (e.g. collecting data to test a scientific theory) and model discovery (e.g. proposing and revising scientific theories). To enable tractable and quantitative evaluation, we implement each environment as a generative probabilistic model with which a scientific agent can run interactive experiments. These probabilistic models are drawn from various real-world scientific domains ranging from psychology to ecology. To quantitatively evaluate a scientific agent's ability to collect informative experimental data, we compute the expected information gain (EIG), an information-theoretic quantity which measures how much an experiment reduces uncertainty about the parameters of a generative model. A good scientific theory is a concise and predictive explanation. Therefore, to quantitatively evaluate model discovery, we ask a scientific agent to explain their model and then assess whether this explanation enables another scientific agent to make reliable predictions about this environment. In addition to this explanation-based evaluation, we compute standard model evaluation metrics such as prediction errors. We find that current LLMs, such as GPT-4o, struggle with both experimental design and model discovery. We find that augmenting the LLM-based agent with an explicit statistical model does not reliably improve these results.

State-of-the-art language models (LMs) are notoriously susceptible to generating hallucinated information. Such inaccurate outputs not only undermine the reliability of these models but also limit their use and raise serious concerns about misinformation and propaganda. In this work, we focus on hallucinated book and article references and present them as the "model organism" of language model hallucination research, due to their frequent and easy-to-discern nature. We posit that if a language model cites a particular reference in its output, then it should ideally possess sufficient information about its authors and content, among other relevant details. Using this basic insight, we illustrate that one can identify hallucinated references without ever consulting any external resources, by asking a set of direct or indirect queries to the language model about the references. These queries can be considered as "consistency checks." Our findings highlight that while LMs, including GPT-4, often produce inconsistent author lists for hallucinated references, they also often accurately recall the authors of real references. In this sense, the LM can be said to "know" when it is hallucinating references. Furthermore, these findings show how hallucinated references can be dissected to shed light on their nature. Replication code and results can be found at https://github.com/microsoft/hallucinated-references.

Large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP successfully find correspondences between images and text. Through the standard deterministic mapping process, an image or a text sample is mapped to a single vector in the embedding space. This is problematic: as multiple samples (images or text) can abstract the same concept in the physical world, deterministic embeddings do not reflect the inherent ambiguity in the embedding space. We propose ProbVLM, a probabilistic adapter that estimates probability distributions for the embeddings of pre-trained VLMs via inter/intra-modal alignment in a post-hoc manner without needing large-scale datasets or computing. On four challenging datasets, i.e., COCO, Flickr, CUB, and Oxford-flowers, we estimate the multi-modal embedding uncertainties for two VLMs, i.e., CLIP and BLIP, quantify the calibration of embedding uncertainties in retrieval tasks and show that ProbVLM outperforms other methods. Furthermore, we propose active learning and model selection as two real-world downstream tasks for VLMs and show that the estimated uncertainty aids both tasks. Lastly, we present a novel technique for visualizing the embedding distributions using a large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion model.

Sequence modeling plays a vital role across various domains, with recurrent neural networks being historically the predominant method of performing these tasks. However, the emergence of transformers has altered this paradigm due to their superior performance. Built upon these advances, transformers have conjoined CNNs as two leading foundational models for learning visual representations. However, transformers are hindered by the O(N^2) complexity of their attention mechanisms, while CNNs lack global receptive fields and dynamic weight allocation. State Space Models (SSMs), specifically the \textbf{Mamba} model with selection mechanisms and hardware-aware architecture, have garnered immense interest lately in sequential modeling and visual representation learning, challenging the dominance of transformers by providing infinite context lengths and offering substantial efficiency maintaining linear complexity in the input sequence. Capitalizing on the advances in computer vision, medical imaging has heralded a new epoch with Mamba models. Intending to help researchers navigate the surge, this survey seeks to offer an encyclopedic review of Mamba models in medical imaging. Specifically, we start with a comprehensive theoretical review forming the basis of SSMs, including Mamba architecture and its alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context. Next, we offer a structured classification of Mamba models in the medical field and introduce a diverse categorization scheme based on their application, imaging modalities, and targeted organs. Finally, we summarize key challenges, discuss different future research directions of the SSMs in the medical domain, and propose several directions to fulfill the demands of this field. In addition, we have compiled the studies discussed in this paper along with their open-source implementations on our GitHub repository.

How can Large Language Models (LLMs) be aligned with human intentions and values? A typical solution is to gather human preference on model outputs and finetune the LLMs accordingly while ensuring that updates do not deviate too far from a reference model. Recent approaches, such as direct preference optimization (DPO), have eliminated the need for unstable and sluggish reinforcement learning optimization by introducing close-formed supervised losses. However, a significant limitation of the current approach is its design for a single reference model only, neglecting to leverage the collective power of numerous pretrained LLMs. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel closed-form formulation for direct preference optimization using multiple reference models. The resulting algorithm, Multi-Reference Preference Optimization (MRPO), leverages broader prior knowledge from diverse reference models, substantially enhancing preference learning capabilities compared to the single-reference DPO. Our experiments demonstrate that LLMs finetuned with MRPO generalize better in various preference data, regardless of data scarcity or abundance. Furthermore, MRPO effectively finetunes LLMs to exhibit superior performance in several downstream natural language processing tasks such as GSM8K and TruthfulQA.

Large language models~(LLMs) are expected to be helpful, harmless, and honest. In alignment scenarios such as safety, confidence, and general preference alignment, binary preference data collection and reward modeling are resource-intensive but essential for transferring human preference. In this work, we explore using the similarity between sampled generations and high-quality reference answers as an alternative reward function choice for LLM alignment. Similarity reward circumvents binary preference data collection and reward modeling when unary high-quality reference answers are available. We introduce RefAlign, a versatile REINFORCE-style alignment algorithm that does not rely on reference or reward models. RefAlign utilizes similarity metrics, such as BERTScore between sampled generations and reference answers as surrogate rewards. Beyond general human preference optimization, RefAlign can be readily extended to diverse scenarios, such as safety and confidence alignment, by incorporating the similarity reward with task-related objectives. In various scenarios, RefAlign demonstrates comparable performance to previous alignment methods without binary preference data and reward models.

Generalization is arguably the most important goal of statistical language modeling research. Publicly available benchmarks and papers published with an open-source code have been critical to advancing the field. However, it is often very difficult, and sometimes even impossible, to reproduce the results fully as reported in publications. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that should help advance the state of the art in language modeling in terms of generalization. We propose to publish not just the code, but also probabilities on dev and test sets with future publications so that one can easily add the new model into an ensemble. This has crucial advantages: it is much easier to determine whether a newly proposed model is actually complementary to the current baseline. Therefore, instead of inventing new names for the old tricks, the scientific community can advance faster. Finally, this approach promotes diversity of ideas: one does not need to create an individual model that is the new state of the art to attract attention; it will be sufficient to develop a new model that learns patterns which other models do not. Thus, even a suboptimal model can be found to have value. Remarkably, our approach has yielded new state-of-the-art results across various language modeling benchmarks up to 10%.

Scaling laws predict the loss of a target machine learning model by extrapolating from easier-to-train models with fewer parameters or smaller training sets. This provides an efficient way for practitioners and researchers alike to compare pretraining decisions involving optimizers, datasets, and model architectures. Despite the widespread use of scaling laws to model the dynamics of language model training, there has been little work on understanding how to best estimate and interpret them. We collect (and release) a large-scale dataset containing losses and downstream evaluations for 485 previously published pretrained models. We use these to estimate more than 1000 scaling laws, then derive a set of best practices for estimating scaling laws in new model families. We find that fitting scaling laws to intermediate checkpoints of training runs (and not just their final losses) substantially improves accuracy, and that -- all else equal -- estimates of performance are generally most accurate when derived from other models of similar sizes. However, because there is a significant degree of variability across model seeds, training multiple small models is sometimes more useful than training a single large one. Moreover, while different model families differ scaling behavior, they are often similar enough that a target model's behavior can be predicted from a single model with the same architecture, along with scaling parameter estimates derived from other model families.

Tools enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in complex problem-solving tasks, but not all tasks have available tools. In the absence of predefined tools, prior works have explored instructing LLMs to generate tools on their own. However, such approaches rely heavily on the models' internal knowledge and would fail in domains beyond the LLMs' knowledge scope. To address this limitation, we propose RefTool, a reference-guided framework for automatic tool creation that leverages structured external materials such as textbooks. RefTool consists of two modules: (1) tool creation, where LLMs generate executable tools from reference content, validate them using illustrative examples, and organize them hierarchically into a toolbox; and (2) tool utilization, where LLMs navigate the toolbox structure to select and apply the appropriate tools to solve problems. Experiments on causality, physics, and chemistry benchmarks demonstrate that RefTool outperforms existing tool-creation and domain-specific reasoning methods by 11.3% on average accuracy, while being cost-efficient and broadly generalizable. Analyses reveal that grounding tool creation in references produces accurate and faithful tools, and that the hierarchical structure facilitates effective tool selection. RefTool enables LLMs to overcome knowledge limitations, demonstrating the value of grounding tool creation in external references for enhanced and generalizable reasoning.

Vector space word representations are learned from distributional information of words in large corpora. Although such statistics are semantically informative, they disregard the valuable information that is contained in semantic lexicons such as WordNet, FrameNet, and the Paraphrase Database. This paper proposes a method for refining vector space representations using relational information from semantic lexicons by encouraging linked words to have similar vector representations, and it makes no assumptions about how the input vectors were constructed. Evaluated on a battery of standard lexical semantic evaluation tasks in several languages, we obtain substantial improvements starting with a variety of word vector models. Our refinement method outperforms prior techniques for incorporating semantic lexicons into the word vector training algorithms.

State-Space Models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a powerful and efficient alternative to the long-standing transformer architecture. However, existing SSM conceptualizations retain deeply rooted biases from their roots in natural language processing. This constrains their ability to appropriately model the spatially-dependent characteristics of visual inputs. In this paper, we address these limitations by re-deriving modern selective state-space techniques, starting from a natively multidimensional formulation. Currently, prior works attempt to apply natively 1D SSMs to 2D data (i.e. images) by relying on arbitrary combinations of 1D scan directions to capture spatial dependencies. In contrast, Mamba2D improves upon this with a single 2D scan direction that factors in both dimensions of the input natively, effectively modelling spatial dependencies when constructing hidden states. Mamba2D shows comparable performance to prior adaptations of SSMs for vision tasks, on standard image classification evaluations with the ImageNet-1K dataset. Source code is available at https://github.com/cocoalex00/Mamba2D.

Recent text-to-image generation models have acquired the ability of multi-reference generation and editing; the ability to inherit the appearance of subjects from multiple reference images and re-render them under new contexts. However, the existing benchmark datasets often focus on the generation with single or a few reference images, which prevents us from measuring the progress on how model performance advances or pointing out their weaknesses, under different multi-reference conditions. In addition, their task definitions are still vague, typically limited to axes such as "what to edit" or "how many references are given", and therefore fail to capture the intrinsic difficulty of multi-reference settings. To address this gap, we introduce MultiBanana, which is carefully designed to assesses the edge of model capabilities by widely covering multi-reference-specific problems at scale: (1) varying the number of references, (2) domain mismatch among references (e.g., photo vs. anime), (3) scale mismatch between reference and target scenes, (4) references containing rare concepts (e.g., a red banana), and (5) multilingual textual references for rendering. Our analysis among a variety of text-to-image models reveals their superior performances, typical failure modes, and areas for improvement. MultiBanana will be released as an open benchmark to push the boundaries and establish a standardized basis for fair comparison in multi-reference image generation. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/matsuolab/multibanana .

Recent studies empirically indicate that language models (LMs) encode rich world knowledge beyond mere semantics, attracting significant attention across various fields. However, in the recommendation domain, it remains uncertain whether LMs implicitly encode user preference information. Contrary to prevailing understanding that LMs and traditional recommenders learn two distinct representation spaces due to the huge gap in language and behavior modeling objectives, this work re-examines such understanding and explores extracting a recommendation space directly from the language representation space. Surprisingly, our findings demonstrate that item representations, when linearly mapped from advanced LM representations, yield superior recommendation performance. This outcome suggests the possible homomorphism between the advanced language representation space and an effective item representation space for recommendation, implying that collaborative signals may be implicitly encoded within LMs. Motivated by these findings, we explore the possibility of designing advanced collaborative filtering (CF) models purely based on language representations without ID-based embeddings. To be specific, we incorporate several crucial components to build a simple yet effective model, with item titles as the input. Empirical results show that such a simple model can outperform leading ID-based CF models, which sheds light on using language representations for better recommendation. Moreover, we systematically analyze this simple model and find several key features for using advanced language representations: a good initialization for item representations, zero-shot recommendation abilities, and being aware of user intention. Our findings highlight the connection between language modeling and behavior modeling, which can inspire both natural language processing and recommender system communities.

Coecke, Sadrzadeh, and Clark (arXiv:1003.4394v1 [cs.CL]) developed a compositional model of meaning for distributional semantics, in which each word in a sentence has a meaning vector and the distributional meaning of the sentence is a function of the tensor products of the word vectors. Abstractly speaking, this function is the morphism corresponding to the grammatical structure of the sentence in the category of finite dimensional vector spaces. In this paper, we provide a concrete method for implementing this linear meaning map, by constructing a corpus-based vector space for the type of sentence. Our construction method is based on structured vector spaces whereby meaning vectors of all sentences, regardless of their grammatical structure, live in the same vector space. Our proposed sentence space is the tensor product of two noun spaces, in which the basis vectors are pairs of words each augmented with a grammatical role. This enables us to compare meanings of sentences by simply taking the inner product of their vectors.

Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be remarkably efficient, both across a wide range of natural language processing tasks and well beyond them. However, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the origins of their impressive performance remains elusive. In this paper, we approach this challenging task by drawing an equivalence between generic autoregressive language models with vocabulary of size T and context window of size K and Markov chains defined on a finite state space of size O(T^K). We derive several surprising findings related to the existence of a stationary distribution of Markov chains that capture the inference power of LLMs, their speed of convergence to it, and the influence of the temperature on the latter. We then prove pre-training and in-context generalization bounds and show how the drawn equivalence allows us to enrich their interpretation. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical guarantees with experiments on several recent LLMs to highlight how they capture the behavior observed in practice.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

One of the main methods for computational interpretation of a text is mapping it into a vector in some embedding space. Such vectors can then be used for a variety of textual processing tasks. Recently, most embedding spaces are a product of training large language models (LLMs). One major drawback of this type of representation is their incomprehensibility to humans. Understanding the embedding space is crucial for several important needs, including the need to debug the embedding method and compare it to alternatives, and the need to detect biases hidden in the model. In this paper, we present a novel method of understanding embeddings by transforming a latent embedding space into a comprehensible conceptual space. We present an algorithm for deriving a conceptual space with dynamic on-demand granularity. We devise a new evaluation method, using either human rater or LLM-based raters, to show that the conceptualized vectors indeed represent the semantics of the original latent ones. We show the use of our method for various tasks, including comparing the semantics of alternative models and tracing the layers of the LLM. The code is available online https://github.com/adiSimhi/Interpreting-Embedding-Spaces-by-Conceptualization.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Efficient state space models (SSMs), such as linear recurrent neural networks and linear attention variants, offer computational advantages over Transformers but struggle with tasks requiring long-range in-context retrieval-like text copying, associative recall, and question answering over long contexts. Previous efforts to address these challenges have focused on architectural modifications, often reintroducing computational inefficiencies. In this paper, we propose a novel training procedure, Birdie, that significantly enhances the in-context retrieval capabilities of SSMs without altering their architecture. Our approach combines bidirectional input processing with dynamic mixtures of specialized pre-training objectives, optimized via reinforcement learning. We introduce a new bidirectional SSM architecture that seamlessly transitions from bidirectional context processing to causal generation. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that Birdie markedly improves performance on retrieval-intensive tasks such as multi-number phone book lookup, long paragraph question-answering, and infilling. This narrows the performance gap with Transformers, while retaining computational efficiency. Our findings highlight the importance of training procedures in leveraging the fixed-state capacity of SSMs, offering a new direction to advance their capabilities. All code and pre-trained models are available at https://www.github.com/samblouir/birdie, with support for JAX and PyTorch.

The most fundamental capability of modern AI methods such as Large Language Models (LLMs) is the ability to predict the next token in a long sequence of tokens, known as ``sequence modeling." Although the Transformers model is the current dominant approach to sequence modeling, its quadratic computational cost with respect to sequence length is a significant drawback. State-space models (SSMs) offer a promising alternative due to their linear decoding efficiency and high parallelizability during training. However, existing SSMs often rely on seemingly ad hoc linear recurrence designs. In this work, we explore SSM design through the lens of online learning, conceptualizing SSMs as meta-modules for specific online learning problems. This approach links SSM design to formulating precise online learning objectives, with state transition rules derived from optimizing these objectives. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel deep SSM architecture based on the implicit update for optimizing an online regression objective. Our experimental results show that our models outperform state-of-the-art SSMs, including the Mamba model, on standard sequence modeling benchmarks and language modeling tasks.

Neural networks embed the geometric structure of a data manifold lying in a high-dimensional space into latent representations. Ideally, the distribution of the data points in the latent space should depend only on the task, the data, the loss, and other architecture-specific constraints. However, factors such as the random weights initialization, training hyperparameters, or other sources of randomness in the training phase may induce incoherent latent spaces that hinder any form of reuse. Nevertheless, we empirically observe that, under the same data and modeling choices, the angles between the encodings within distinct latent spaces do not change. In this work, we propose the latent similarity between each sample and a fixed set of anchors as an alternative data representation, demonstrating that it can enforce the desired invariances without any additional training. We show how neural architectures can leverage these relative representations to guarantee, in practice, invariance to latent isometries and rescalings, effectively enabling latent space communication: from zero-shot model stitching to latent space comparison between diverse settings. We extensively validate the generalization capability of our approach on different datasets, spanning various modalities (images, text, graphs), tasks (e.g., classification, reconstruction) and architectures (e.g., CNNs, GCNs, transformers).

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a neighborhood agreement measure between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.

Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confidence. However, this can fail to represent uncertainty arising when the input is ambiguous, e.g., due to occlusion or blurriness. This work addresses this issue and explicitly models the uncertainty by hedging the location of each input in the embedding space. We introduce the hedged instance embedding (HIB) in which embeddings are modeled as random variables and the model is trained under the variational information bottleneck principle. Empirical results on our new N-digit MNIST dataset show that our method leads to the desired behavior of hedging its bets across the embedding space upon encountering ambiguous inputs. This results in improved performance for image matching and classification tasks, more structure in the learned embedding space, and an ability to compute a per-exemplar uncertainty measure that is correlated with downstream performance.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Given the exponential growth of the volume of the ball w.r.t. its radius, the hyperbolic space is capable of embedding trees with arbitrarily small distortion and hence has received wide attention for representing hierarchical datasets. However, this exponential growth property comes at a price of numerical instability such that training hyperbolic learning models will sometimes lead to catastrophic NaN problems, encountering unrepresentable values in floating point arithmetic. In this work, we carefully analyze the limitation of two popular models for the hyperbolic space, namely, the Poincar\'e ball and the Lorentz model. We first show that, under the 64 bit arithmetic system, the Poincar\'e ball has a relatively larger capacity than the Lorentz model for correctly representing points. Then, we theoretically validate the superiority of the Lorentz model over the Poincar\'e ball from the perspective of optimization. Given the numerical limitations of both models, we identify one Euclidean parametrization of the hyperbolic space which can alleviate these limitations. We further extend this Euclidean parametrization to hyperbolic hyperplanes and exhibits its ability in improving the performance of hyperbolic SVM.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

State Space Models (SSMs) have become serious contenders in the field of sequential modeling, challenging the dominance of Transformers. At the same time, Mixture of Experts (MoE) has significantly improved Transformer-based LLMs, including recent state-of-the-art open-source models. We propose that to unlock the potential of SSMs for scaling, they should be combined with MoE. We showcase this on Mamba, a recent SSM-based model that achieves remarkable, Transformer-like performance. Our model, MoE-Mamba, outperforms both Mamba and Transformer-MoE. In particular, MoE-Mamba reaches the same performance as Mamba in 2.2x less training steps while preserving the inference performance gains of Mamba against the Transformer.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in complex reasoning tasks, but their inference remains computationally inefficient. We observe a common failure mode in many prevalent LLMs, overthinking, where models generate verbose and tangential reasoning traces even for simple queries. Recent works have tried to mitigate this by enforcing fixed token budgets, however, this can lead to underthinking, especially on harder problems. Through empirical analysis, we identify that this inefficiency often stems from unclear problem-solving strategies. To formalize this, we develop a theoretical model, BBAM (Bayesian Budget Allocation Model), which models reasoning as a sequence of sub-questions with varying uncertainty, and introduce the E^3 metric to capture the trade-off between correctness and computation efficiency. Building on theoretical results from BBAM, we propose Plan-and-Budget, a model-agnostic, test-time framework that decomposes complex queries into sub-questions and allocates token budgets based on estimated complexity using adaptive scheduling. Plan-and-Budget improves reasoning efficiency across a range of tasks and models, achieving up to +70% accuracy gains, -39% token reduction, and +187.5% improvement in E^3. Notably, it elevates a smaller model (DS-Qwen-32B) to match the efficiency of a larger model (DS-LLaMA-70B)-demonstrating Plan-and-Budget's ability to close performance gaps without retraining. Our code is available at anonymous.4open.science/r/P-and-B-6513/.

The recent proliferation of research into transformer based natural language processing has led to a number of studies which attempt to detect the presence of human-like cognitive behavior in the models. We contend that, as is true of human psychology, the investigation of cognitive behavior in language models must be conducted in an appropriate population of an appropriate size for the results to be meaningful. We leverage work in uncertainty estimation in a novel approach to efficiently construct experimental populations. The resultant tool, PopulationLM, has been made open source. We provide theoretical grounding in the uncertainty estimation literature and motivation from current cognitive work regarding language models. We discuss the methodological lessons from other scientific communities and attempt to demonstrate their application to two artificial population studies. Through population based experimentation we find that language models exhibit behavior consistent with typicality effects among categories highly represented in training. However, we find that language models don't tend to exhibit structural priming effects. Generally, our results show that single models tend to over estimate the presence of cognitive behaviors in neural models.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Aligning text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models with human preferences has emerged as a critical research challenge. While recent advances in this area have extended preference optimization techniques from large language models (LLMs) to the diffusion setting, they often struggle with limited exploration. In this work, we propose a novel and orthogonal approach to enhancing diffusion-based preference optimization. First, we introduce a stable reference model update strategy that relaxes the frozen reference model, encouraging exploration while maintaining a stable optimization anchor through reference model regularization. Second, we present a timestep-aware training strategy that mitigates the reward scale imbalance problem across timesteps. Our method can be integrated into various preference optimization algorithms. Experimental results show that our approach improves the performance of state-of-the-art methods on human preference evaluation benchmarks.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Spatial reasoning is a crucial component of both biological and artificial intelligence. In this work, we present a comprehensive study of the capability of current state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) on spatial reasoning. To support our study, we created and contribute a novel Spatial Reasoning Characterization (SpaRC) framework and Spatial Reasoning Paths (SpaRP) datasets, to enable an in-depth understanding of the spatial relations and compositions as well as the usefulness of spatial reasoning chains. We found that all the state-of-the-art LLMs do not perform well on the datasets -- their performances are consistently low across different setups. The spatial reasoning capability improves substantially as model sizes scale up. Finetuning both large language models (e.g., Llama-2-70B) and smaller ones (e.g., Llama-2-13B) can significantly improve their F1-scores by 7--32 absolute points. We also found that the top proprietary LLMs still significantly outperform their open-source counterparts in topological spatial understanding and reasoning.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Various visual foundation models have distinct strengths and weaknesses, both of which can be improved through heterogeneous multi-teacher knowledge distillation without labels, termed "agglomerative models." We build upon this body of work by studying the effect of the teachers' activation statistics, particularly the impact of the loss function on the resulting student model quality. We explore a standard toolkit of statistical normalization techniques to better align the different distributions and assess their effects. Further, we examine the impact on downstream teacher-matching metrics, which motivates the use of Hadamard matrices. With these matrices, we demonstrate useful properties, showing how they can be used for isotropic standardization, where each dimension of a multivariate distribution is standardized using the same scale. We call this technique "PHI Standardization" (PHI-S) and empirically demonstrate that it produces the best student model across the suite of methods studied.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variational inference.

Interventions targeting the representation space of language models (LMs) have emerged as an effective means to influence model behavior. Such methods are employed, for example, to eliminate or alter the encoding of demographic information such as gender within the model's representations and, in so doing, create a counterfactual representation. However, because the intervention operates within the representation space, understanding precisely what aspects of the text it modifies poses a challenge. In this paper, we give a method to convert representation counterfactuals into string counterfactuals. We demonstrate that this approach enables us to analyze the linguistic alterations corresponding to a given representation space intervention and to interpret the features utilized to encode a specific concept. Moreover, the resulting counterfactuals can be used to mitigate bias in classification through data augmentation.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Reward models (RM) play a critical role in aligning generations of large language models (LLM) to human expectations. However, prevailing RMs fail to capture the stochasticity within human preferences and cannot effectively evaluate the reliability of reward predictions. To address these issues, we propose Uncertain-aware RM (URM) and Uncertain-aware RM Ensemble (URME) to incorporate and manage uncertainty in reward modeling. URM can model the distribution of disentangled attributes within human preferences, while URME quantifies uncertainty through discrepancies in the ensemble, thereby identifying potential lack of knowledge during reward evaluation. Experiment results indicate that the proposed URM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to models with the same size, demonstrating the effectiveness of modeling uncertainty within human preferences. Furthermore, empirical results show that through uncertainty quantification, URM and URME can identify unreliable predictions to improve the quality of reward evaluations.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

This book introduces the mathematical foundations and techniques that lead to the development and analysis of many of the algorithms that are used in machine learning. It starts with an introductory chapter that describes notation used throughout the book and serve at a reminder of basic concepts in calculus, linear algebra and probability and also introduces some measure theoretic terminology, which can be used as a reading guide for the sections that use these tools. The introductory chapters also provide background material on matrix analysis and optimization. The latter chapter provides theoretical support to many algorithms that are used in the book, including stochastic gradient descent, proximal methods, etc. After discussing basic concepts for statistical prediction, the book includes an introduction to reproducing kernel theory and Hilbert space techniques, which are used in many places, before addressing the description of various algorithms for supervised statistical learning, including linear methods, support vector machines, decision trees, boosting, or neural networks. The subject then switches to generative methods, starting with a chapter that presents sampling methods and an introduction to the theory of Markov chains. The following chapter describe the theory of graphical models, an introduction to variational methods for models with latent variables, and to deep-learning based generative models. The next chapters focus on unsupervised learning methods, for clustering, factor analysis and manifold learning. The final chapter of the book is theory-oriented and discusses concentration inequalities and generalization bounds.

Referring expressions usually describe an object using properties of the object and relationships of the object with other objects. We propose a technique that integrates context between objects to understand referring expressions. Our approach uses an LSTM to learn the probability of a referring expression, with input features from a region and a context region. The context regions are discovered using multiple-instance learning (MIL) since annotations for context objects are generally not available for training. We utilize max-margin based MIL objective functions for training the LSTM. Experiments on the Google RefExp and UNC RefExp datasets show that modeling context between objects provides better performance than modeling only object properties. We also qualitatively show that our technique can ground a referring expression to its referred region along with the supporting context region.

Language models (LMs) compute the probability of a text by sequentially computing a representation of an already-seen context and using this representation to predict the next word. Currently, most LMs calculate these representations through a neural network consuming the immediate previous context. However recently, retrieval-augmented LMs have shown to improve over standard neural LMs, by accessing information retrieved from a large datastore, in addition to their standard, parametric, next-word prediction. In this paper, we set out to understand why retrieval-augmented language models, and specifically why k-nearest neighbor language models (kNN-LMs) perform better than standard parametric LMs, even when the k-nearest neighbor component retrieves examples from the same training set that the LM was originally trained on. To this end, we perform a careful analysis of the various dimensions over which kNN-LM diverges from standard LMs, and investigate these dimensions one by one. Empirically, we identify three main reasons why kNN-LM performs better than standard LMs: using a different input representation for predicting the next tokens, approximate kNN search, and the importance of softmax temperature for the kNN distribution. Further, we incorporate these insights into the model architecture or the training procedure of the standard parametric LM, improving its results without the need for an explicit retrieval component. The code is available at https://github.com/frankxu2004/knnlm-why.

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be distributionally aligned remains uncertain. This notion of distributional alignment is complex, as there is significant variation in the types of attributes that are simulated. Prior works have underexplored the role of three critical variables -- the question domain, steering method, and distribution expression method -- which motivates our contribution of a benchmark explicitly addressing these dimensions. We construct a dataset expanding beyond political values, create human baselines for this task, and evaluate the extent to which an LM can align with a particular group's opinion distribution to inform design choices of such simulation systems. Our analysis reveals open problems regarding if, and how, LMs can be used to simulate humans, and that LLMs can more accurately describe the opinion distribution than simulate such distributions.

In recent years supervised representation learning has provided state of the art or close to the state of the art results in semantic analysis tasks including ranking and information retrieval. The core idea is to learn how to embed items into a latent space such that they optimize a supervised objective in that latent space. The dimensions of the latent space have no clear semantics, and this reduces the interpretability of the system. For example, in personalization models, it is hard to explain why a particular item is ranked high for a given user profile. We propose a novel model of representation learning called Supervised Explicit Semantic Analysis (SESA) that is trained in a supervised fashion to embed items to a set of dimensions with explicit semantics. The model learns to compare two objects by representing them in this explicit space, where each dimension corresponds to a concept from a knowledge base. This work extends Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) with a supervised model for ranking problems. We apply this model to the task of Job-Profile relevance in LinkedIn in which a set of skills defines our explicit dimensions of the space. Every profile and job are encoded to this set of skills their similarity is calculated in this space. We use RNNs to embed text input into this space. In addition to interpretability, our model makes use of the web-scale collaborative skills data that is provided by users for each LinkedIn profile. Our model provides state of the art result while it remains interpretable.

Large language models (LLMs) show strong performance across natural language processing (NLP), mathematical reasoning, and programming, and recent large reasoning models (LRMs) further emphasize explicit reasoning. Yet their computational limits, particularly spatial complexity constrained by finite context windows, remain poorly understood. While recent works often focus on problems within the NP complexity class, we push the boundary by introducing a novel benchmark grounded in two PSPACE-complete regular expression (regex) problems: equivalence decision (RegexEQ) and minimization (RegexMin). PSPACE-complete problems serve as a more rigorous standard for assessing computational capacity, as their solutions require massive search space exploration. We perform a double-exponential space exploration to construct a labeled dataset of over a million regex instances with a sound filtering process to build the benchmark. We conduct extensive evaluations on 6 LLMs and 5 LRMs of varying scales, revealing common failure patterns such as verbosity and repetition. With its well-defined structure and quantitative evaluation metrics, this work presents the first empirical investigation into the spatial computational limitations of LLMs and LRMs, offering a new framework for evaluating their advanced reasoning capabilities. Our code is available at https://github.com/hyundong98/RegexPSPACE .

This work studies discrete diffusion probabilistic models with applications to natural language generation. We derive an alternative yet equivalent formulation of the sampling from discrete diffusion processes and leverage this insight to develop a family of reparameterized discrete diffusion models. The derived generic framework is highly flexible, offers a fresh perspective of the generation process in discrete diffusion models, and features more effective training and decoding techniques. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the text generation capability of our model, demonstrating significant improvements over existing diffusion models.

Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically evaluate four approaches for confidence estimation in LLM outputs: VCE, MSP, Sample Consistency, and CoCoA (Vashurin et al., 2025). For the evaluation of the approaches, we conduct experiments on four question-answering tasks using a state-of-the-art open-source LLM. Our results show that each uncertainty metric captures a different facet of model confidence and that the hybrid CoCoA approach yields the best reliability overall, improving both calibration and discrimination of correct answers. We discuss the trade-offs of each method and provide recommendations for selecting uncertainty measures in LLM applications.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their capabilities, highlighting the need for comprehensive evaluation frameworks that extend beyond task-specific benchmarks. However, existing benchmarks often focus on isolated abilities, lacking a holistic framework for assessing LLM capabilities. To address this gap, we propose the Cognition-Domain-Task (CDT) framework, which comprehensively measures a model's capabilities across three dimensions. We expand the scope of model capability definitions at the cognitive level by incorporating the Cattell-Horn-Carroll cognitive theory, refining the categorization of model capabilities. We apply CDT in two directions: dataset capability evaluation and data selection. Experiments show that our capability metrics correlate well with downstream performance and can support effective dataset analysis and construction. The experiments on data selection also show significant improvements in both general and specific benchmarks, achieving scores of 44.3 and 45.4, with an increase of 1.6 and 2.2 points over the baselines, respectively. These results validate the effectiveness and practicality of CDT. Source code and models are available at https://github.com/Alessa-mo/CDT.

We discuss how to define a kernel for Signal Temporal Logic (STL) formulae. Such a kernel allows us to embed the space of formulae into a Hilbert space, and opens up the use of kernel-based machine learning algorithms in the context of STL. We show an application of this idea to a regression problem in formula space for probabilistic models.

Protein design, a grand challenge of the day, involves optimization on a fitness landscape, and leading methods adopt a model-based approach where a model is trained on a training set (protein sequences and fitness) and proposes candidates to explore next. These methods are challenged by sparsity of high-fitness samples in the training set, a problem that has been in the literature. A less recognized but equally important problem stems from the distribution of training samples in the design space: leading methods are not designed for scenarios where the desired optimum is in a region that is not only poorly represented in training data, but also relatively far from the highly represented low-fitness regions. We show that this problem of "separation" in the design space is a significant bottleneck in existing model-based optimization tools and propose a new approach that uses a novel VAE as its search model to overcome the problem. We demonstrate its advantage over prior methods in robustly finding improved samples, regardless of the imbalance and separation between low- and high-fitness training samples. Our comprehensive benchmark on real and semi-synthetic protein datasets as well as solution design for physics-informed neural networks, showcases the generality of our approach in discrete and continuous design spaces. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/sabagh1994/PGVAE.

Hyperbolic space has proven to be well-suited for capturing hierarchical relations in data, such as trees and directed acyclic graphs. Prior work introduced the concept of entailment cones, which uses partial orders defined by nested cones in the Poincar\'e ball to model hierarchies. Here, we introduce the ``shadow cones" framework, a physics-inspired entailment cone construction. Specifically, we model partial orders as subset relations between shadows formed by a light source and opaque objects in hyperbolic space. The shadow cones framework generalizes entailment cones to a broad class of formulations and hyperbolic space models beyond the Poincar\'e ball. This results in clear advantages over existing constructions: for example, shadow cones possess better optimization properties over constructions limited to the Poincar\'e ball. Our experiments on datasets of various sizes and hierarchical structures show that shadow cones consistently and significantly outperform existing entailment cone constructions. These results indicate that shadow cones are an effective way to model partial orders in hyperbolic space, offering physically intuitive and novel insights about the nature of such structures.

Large datasets have become commonplace in NLP research. However, the increased emphasis on data quantity has made it challenging to assess the quality of data. We introduce Data Maps---a model-based tool to characterize and diagnose datasets. We leverage a largely ignored source of information: the behavior of the model on individual instances during training (training dynamics) for building data maps. This yields two intuitive measures for each example---the model's confidence in the true class, and the variability of this confidence across epochs---obtained in a single run of training. Experiments across four datasets show that these model-dependent measures reveal three distinct regions in the data map, each with pronounced characteristics. First, our data maps show the presence of "ambiguous" regions with respect to the model, which contribute the most towards out-of-distribution generalization. Second, the most populous regions in the data are "easy to learn" for the model, and play an important role in model optimization. Finally, data maps uncover a region with instances that the model finds "hard to learn"; these often correspond to labeling errors. Our results indicate that a shift in focus from quantity to quality of data could lead to robust models and improved out-of-distribution generalization.

State-space models (SSMs) are a new class of foundation models that have emerged as a compelling alternative to Transformers and their attention mechanisms for sequence processing tasks. This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of selective SSMs, the core components of the Mamba and Mamba-2 architectures. We leverage the connection between selective SSMs and the self-attention mechanism to highlight the fundamental similarities between these models. Building on this connection, we establish a length independent covering number-based generalization bound for selective SSMs, providing a deeper understanding of their theoretical performance guarantees. We analyze the effects of state matrix stability and input-dependent discretization, shedding light on the critical role played by these factors in the generalization capabilities of selective SSMs. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the sequence length independence of the derived bounds on two tasks.

Abstractive summarization models are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation, which assumes a deterministic (one-point) target distribution in which an ideal model will assign all the probability mass to the reference summary. This assumption may lead to performance degradation during inference, where the model needs to compare several system-generated (candidate) summaries that have deviated from the reference summary. To address this problem, we propose a novel training paradigm which assumes a non-deterministic distribution so that different candidate summaries are assigned probability mass according to their quality. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art result on the CNN/DailyMail (47.78 ROUGE-1) and XSum (49.07 ROUGE-1) datasets. Further analysis also shows that our model can estimate probabilities of candidate summaries that are more correlated with their level of quality.

Sequence modeling is a crucial area across various domains, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech recognition, time series forecasting, music generation, and bioinformatics. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have historically dominated sequence modeling tasks like Machine Translation, Named Entity Recognition (NER), etc. However, the advancement of transformers has led to a shift in this paradigm, given their superior performance. Yet, transformers suffer from O(N^2) attention complexity and challenges in handling inductive bias. Several variations have been proposed to address these issues which use spectral networks or convolutions and have performed well on a range of tasks. However, they still have difficulty in dealing with long sequences. State Space Models(SSMs) have emerged as promising alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context, especially with the advent of S4 and its variants, such as S4nd, Hippo, Hyena, Diagnol State Spaces (DSS), Gated State Spaces (GSS), Linear Recurrent Unit (LRU), Liquid-S4, Mamba, etc. In this survey, we categorize the foundational SSMs based on three paradigms namely, Gating architectures, Structural architectures, and Recurrent architectures. This survey also highlights diverse applications of SSMs across domains such as vision, video, audio, speech, language (especially long sequence modeling), medical (including genomics), chemical (like drug design), recommendation systems, and time series analysis, including tabular data. Moreover, we consolidate the performance of SSMs on benchmark datasets like Long Range Arena (LRA), WikiText, Glue, Pile, ImageNet, Kinetics-400, sstv2, as well as video datasets such as Breakfast, COIN, LVU, and various time series datasets. The project page for Mamba-360 work is available on this webpage.https://github.com/badripatro/mamba360.

Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce chain-of-thought reasoning, they lack a principled framework to capture latent structures and model uncertainty, especially in compositional reasoning tasks. We propose Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian prompting framework that guides LLMs to simulate key principles of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in natural language. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise or specialized training, vPGM bypasses expert-driven model design, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited assumptions or scarce data. We evaluated our model on several compositional reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.

We propose a Distributional Approach for addressing Controlled Text Generation from pre-trained Language Models (LMs). This approach permits to specify, in a single formal framework, both "pointwise" and "distributional" constraints over the target LM -- to our knowledge, the first model with such generality -- while minimizing KL divergence from the initial LM distribution. The optimal target distribution is then uniquely determined as an explicit EBM (Energy-Based Model) representation. From that optimal representation we then train a target controlled Autoregressive LM through an adaptive distributional variant of Policy Gradient. We conduct a first set of experiments over pointwise constraints showing the advantages of our approach over a set of baselines, in terms of obtaining a controlled LM balancing constraint satisfaction with divergence from the initial LM. We then perform experiments over distributional constraints, a unique feature of our approach, demonstrating its potential as a remedy to the problem of Bias in Language Models. Through an ablation study, we show the effectiveness of our adaptive technique for obtaining faster convergence. (Code available at https://github.com/naver/gdc)

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

When using Large Language Models (LLMs) to support Knowledge Graph Engineering (KGE), one of the first indications when searching for an appropriate model is its size. According to the scaling laws, larger models typically show higher capabilities. However, in practice, resource costs are also an important factor and thus it makes sense to consider the ratio between model performance and costs. The LLM-KG-Bench framework enables the comparison of LLMs in the context of KGE tasks and assesses their capabilities of understanding and producing KGs and KG queries. Based on a dataset created in an LLM-KG-Bench run covering 26 open state-of-the-art LLMs, we explore the model size scaling laws specific to KGE tasks. In our analyses, we assess how benchmark scores evolve between different model size categories. Additionally, we inspect how the general score development of single models and families of models correlates to their size. Our analyses revealed that, with a few exceptions, the model size scaling laws generally also apply to the selected KGE tasks. However, in some cases, plateau or ceiling effects occurred, i.e., the task performance did not change much between a model and the next larger model. In these cases, smaller models could be considered to achieve high cost-effectiveness. Regarding models of the same family, sometimes larger models performed worse than smaller models of the same family. These effects occurred only locally. Hence it is advisable to additionally test the next smallest and largest model of the same family.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

State space models (SSMs) have emerged as an efficient alternative to Transformer models for language modeling, offering linear computational complexity and constant memory usage as context length increases. However, despite their efficiency in handling long contexts, recent studies have shown that SSMs, such as Mamba models, generally underperform compared to Transformers in long-context understanding tasks. To address this significant shortfall and achieve both efficient and accurate long-context understanding, we propose LongMamba, a training-free technique that significantly enhances the long-context capabilities of Mamba models. LongMamba builds on our discovery that the hidden channels in Mamba can be categorized into local and global channels based on their receptive field lengths, with global channels primarily responsible for long-context capability. These global channels can become the key bottleneck as the input context lengthens. Specifically, when input lengths largely exceed the training sequence length, global channels exhibit limitations in adaptively extend their receptive fields, leading to Mamba's poor long-context performance. The key idea of LongMamba is to mitigate the hidden state memory decay in these global channels by preventing the accumulation of unimportant tokens in their memory. This is achieved by first identifying critical tokens in the global channels and then applying token filtering to accumulate only those critical tokens. Through extensive benchmarking across synthetic and real-world long-context scenarios, LongMamba sets a new standard for Mamba's long-context performance, significantly extending its operational range without requiring additional training. Our code is available at https://github.com/GATECH-EIC/LongMamba.

Do larger and more capable language models learn to update their "beliefs" about propositions more consistently with Bayes' theorem when presented with evidence in-context? To test this, we formulate a Bayesian Coherence Coefficient (BCC) metric and generate a dataset with which to measure the BCC. We measure BCC for multiple pre-trained-only language models across five model families, comparing against the number of model parameters, the amount of training data, and model scores on common benchmarks. Our results provide evidence for our hypothesis that larger and more capable pre-trained language models assign credences that are more coherent with Bayes' theorem. These results have important implications for our understanding and governance of LLMs.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Language models have demonstrated the ability to generate highly fluent text; however, it remains unclear whether their output retains coherent high-level structure (e.g., story progression). Here, we propose to apply a statistical tool, model criticism in latent space, to evaluate the high-level structure of the generated text. Model criticism compares the distributions between real and generated data in a latent space obtained according to an assumptive generative process. Different generative processes identify specific failure modes of the underlying model. We perform experiments on three representative aspects of high-level discourse -- coherence, coreference, and topicality -- and find that transformer-based language models are able to capture topical structures but have a harder time maintaining structural coherence or modeling coreference.

Long-range dependencies are critical for understanding genomic structure and function, yet most conventional methods struggle with them. Widely adopted transformer-based models, while excelling at short-context tasks, are limited by the attention module's quadratic computational complexity and inability to extrapolate to sequences longer than those seen in training. In this work, we explore State Space Models (SSMs) as a promising alternative by benchmarking two SSM-inspired architectures, Caduceus and Hawk, on long-range genomics modeling tasks under conditions parallel to a 50M parameter transformer baseline. We discover that SSMs match transformer performance and exhibit impressive zero-shot extrapolation across multiple tasks, handling contexts 10 to 100 times longer than those seen during training, indicating more generalizable representations better suited for modeling the long and complex human genome. Moreover, we demonstrate that these models can efficiently process sequences of 1M tokens on a single GPU, allowing for modeling entire genomic regions at once, even in labs with limited compute. Our findings establish SSMs as efficient and scalable for long-context genomic analysis.

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved state-of-the-art synthesis results on diverse tasks. However, the current design space of the forward diffusion process is largely unexplored and often relies on physical intuition or simplifying assumptions. Leveraging results from the design of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for constructing forward processes in SGMs, all of which are guaranteed to converge to the target distribution of interest. We show that several existing SGMs can be cast as specific instantiations of this parameterization. Furthermore, building on this recipe, we construct a novel SGM: Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which performs score-based modeling in a space augmented with auxiliary variables akin to a physical phase space. We show that PSLD outperforms competing baselines in terms of sample quality and the speed-vs-quality tradeoff across different samplers on various standard image synthesis benchmarks. Moreover, we show that PSLD achieves sample quality comparable to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 on unconditional CIFAR-10 generation), providing an attractive alternative as an SGM backbone for further development. We will publish our code and model checkpoints for reproducibility at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

Attention mechanisms have been widely used to capture long-range dependencies among nodes in Graph Transformers. Bottlenecked by the quadratic computational cost, attention mechanisms fail to scale in large graphs. Recent improvements in computational efficiency are mainly achieved by attention sparsification with random or heuristic-based graph subsampling, which falls short in data-dependent context reasoning. State space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness and efficiency in modeling long-range dependencies in sequential data. However, adapting SSMs to non-sequential graph data presents a notable challenge. In this work, we introduce Graph-Mamba, the first attempt to enhance long-range context modeling in graph networks by integrating a Mamba block with the input-dependent node selection mechanism. Specifically, we formulate graph-centric node prioritization and permutation strategies to enhance context-aware reasoning, leading to a substantial improvement in predictive performance. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that Graph-Mamba outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long-range graph prediction tasks, with a fraction of the computational cost in both FLOPs and GPU memory consumption. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bowang-lab/Graph-Mamba.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.