Daily Papers

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Multimodal generative models require a unified approach to handle both discrete data (e.g., text and code) and continuous data (e.g., image, audio, video). In this work, we propose Latent Language Modeling (LatentLM), which seamlessly integrates continuous and discrete data using causal Transformers. Specifically, we employ a variational autoencoder (VAE) to represent continuous data as latent vectors and introduce next-token diffusion for autoregressive generation of these vectors. Additionally, we develop sigma-VAE to address the challenges of variance collapse, which is crucial for autoregressive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LatentLM across various modalities. In image generation, LatentLM surpasses Diffusion Transformers in both performance and scalability. When integrated into multimodal large language models, LatentLM provides a general-purpose interface that unifies multimodal generation and understanding. Experimental results show that LatentLM achieves favorable performance compared to Transfusion and vector quantized models in the setting of scaling up training tokens. In text-to-speech synthesis, LatentLM outperforms the state-of-the-art VALL-E 2 model in speaker similarity and robustness, while requiring 10x fewer decoding steps. The results establish LatentLM as a highly effective and scalable approach to advance large multimodal models.

We introduce a deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks. This yields a sampling-free, single-pass model and loss that effectively improves uncertainty estimation. Our variational Bayesian last layer (VBLL) can be trained and evaluated with only quadratic complexity in last layer width, and is thus (nearly) computationally free to add to standard architectures. We experimentally investigate VBLLs, and show that they improve predictive accuracy, calibration, and out of distribution detection over baselines across both regression and classification. Finally, we investigate combining VBLL layers with variational Bayesian feature learning, yielding a lower variance collapsed variational inference method for Bayesian neural networks.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have become a cornerstone in generative modeling and representation learning within machine learning. This paper explores a nuanced aspect of VAEs, focusing on interpreting the Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence, a critical component within the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) that governs the trade-off between reconstruction accuracy and regularization. Meanwhile, the KL Divergence enforces alignment between latent variable distributions and a prior imposing a structure on the overall latent space but leaves individual variable distributions unconstrained. The proposed method redefines the ELBO with a mixture of Gaussians for the posterior probability, introduces a regularization term to prevent variance collapse, and employs a PatchGAN discriminator to enhance texture realism. Implementation details involve ResNetV2 architectures for both the Encoder and Decoder. The experiments demonstrate the ability to generate realistic faces, offering a promising solution for enhancing VAE-based generative models.

As large language models (LLMs) scale, the question is not only how large they become, but how much of their capacity is effectively utilized. Existing scaling laws relate model size to loss, yet overlook how components exploit their latent space. We study feed-forward networks (FFNs) and recast width selection as a spectral utilization problem. Using a lightweight diagnostic suite -- Hard Rank (participation ratio), Soft Rank (Shannon rank), Spectral Concentration, and the composite Spectral Utilization Index (SUI) -- we quantify how many latent directions are meaningfully activated across LLaMA, GPT-2, and nGPT families. Our key finding is an asymmetric spectral scaling law: soft rank follows an almost perfect power law with FFN width, while hard rank grows only sublinearly and with high variance. This asymmetry suggests that widening FFNs mostly adds low-energy tail directions, while dominant-mode subspaces saturate early. Moreover, at larger widths, variance further collapses into a narrow subspace, leaving much of the latent space under-utilized. These results recast FFN width selection as a principled trade-off between tail capacity and dominant-mode capacity, offering concrete guidance for inference-efficient LLM design.

Recent self-supervised methods for image representation learning are based on maximizing the agreement between embedding vectors from different views of the same image. A trivial solution is obtained when the encoder outputs constant vectors. This collapse problem is often avoided through implicit biases in the learning architecture, that often lack a clear justification or interpretation. In this paper, we introduce VICReg (Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization), a method that explicitly avoids the collapse problem with a simple regularization term on the variance of the embeddings along each dimension individually. VICReg combines the variance term with a decorrelation mechanism based on redundancy reduction and covariance regularization, and achieves results on par with the state of the art on several downstream tasks. In addition, we show that incorporating our new variance term into other methods helps stabilize the training and leads to performance improvements.

Decoder-only Transformers often struggle with complex reasoning tasks, particularly arithmetic reasoning requiring multiple sequential operations. In this work, we identify representation collapse in the model's intermediate layers as a key factor limiting their reasoning capabilities. To address this, we propose Sequential Variance-Covariance Regularization (Seq-VCR), which enhances the entropy of intermediate representations and prevents collapse. Combined with dummy pause tokens as substitutes for chain-of-thought (CoT) tokens, our method significantly improves performance in arithmetic reasoning problems. In the challenging 5 times 5 integer multiplication task, our approach achieves 99.5% exact match accuracy, outperforming models of the same size (which yield 0% accuracy) and GPT-4 with five-shot CoT prompting (44%). We also demonstrate superior results on arithmetic expression and longest increasing subsequence (LIS) datasets. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing intermediate layer representation collapse to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Transformers and show that Seq-VCR offers an effective solution without requiring explicit CoT supervision.

Reinforcement learning has been central to recent advances in large language model reasoning, but most algorithms rely on on-policy training that demands fresh rollouts at every update, limiting efficiency and scalability. Asynchronous RL systems alleviate this by decoupling rollout generation from training, yet their effectiveness hinges on tolerating large staleness in rollout data, a setting where existing methods either degrade in performance or collapse. We revisit this challenge and uncover a prosperity-before-collapse phenomenon: stale data can be as informative as on-policy data if exploited properly. Building on this insight, we introduce M2PO (Second-Moment Trust Policy Optimization), which constrains the second moment of importance weights to suppress only extreme outliers while preserving informative updates. Notably, M2PO sharply reduces the fraction of clipped tokens under high staleness (from 1.22% to 0.06% over training), precisely masking high-variance tokens while maintaining stable optimization. Extensive evaluation across six models (from 1.7B to 32B) and eight benchmarks shows that M2PO delivers stable off-policy training even with data stale by at least 256 model updates and matches on-policy performance.

Group-based policy optimization methods like GRPO and GSPO have become standard for training multimodal models, leveraging group-wise rollouts and relative advantage estimation. However, they suffer from a critical gradient vanishing problem when all responses within a group receive identical rewards, causing advantage estimates to collapse and training signals to diminish. Existing attempts to mitigate this issue fall into two paradigms: filtering-based and sampling-based methods. Filtering-based methods first generate rollouts broadly and then retroactively filter out uninformative groups, leading to substantial computational overhead. Sampling-based methods proactively select effective samples before rollout but rely on static criteria or prior dataset knowledge, lacking real-time adaptability. To address these issues, we propose VADE, a Variance-Aware Dynamic sampling framework via online sample-level difficulty Estimation. Our framework integrates three key components: online sample-level difficulty estimation using Beta distributions, a Thompson sampler that maximizes information gain through the estimated correctness probability, and a two-scale prior decay mechanism that maintains robust estimation under policy evolution. This three components design enables VADE to dynamically select the most informative samples, thereby amplifying training signals while eliminating extra rollout costs. Extensive experiments on multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that VADE consistently outperforms strong baselines in both performance and sample efficiency, while achieving a dramatic reduction in computational overhead. More importantly, our framework can serves as a plug-and-play component to be seamlessly integrated into existing group-based RL algorithms. Code and models are available at https://VADE-RL.github.io.

In this work we propose an analytical model that reproduces the core-bounds phase of gravitational waves (GW) of Rapidly Rotating (RR) from Core Collapse Supernovae (CCSNe), as a function of three parameters, the arrival time tau, the ratio of the kinetic and potential energy beta and a phenomenological parameter alpha related to rotation and equation of state (EOS). To validate the model we use 126 waveforms from the Richers catalog Richers_2017 selected with the criteria of exploring a range of rotation profiles, and involving EOS. To quantify the degree of accuracy of the proposed model, with a particular focus on the rotation parameter beta, we show that the average Fitting Factor (FF) between the simulated waveforms with the templates is 94.4\%. In order to estimate the parameters we propose a frequentist matched filtering approach in real interferometric noise which does not require assigning any priors. We use the Matched Filter (MF) technique, where we inject a bank of templates considering simulated colored Gaussian noise and the real noise of O3L1. For example for A300w6.00\_BHBLP at 10Kpc we obtain a standar deviation of sigma = 3.34times 10^{-3} for simulated colored Gaussian noise and sigma= 1.46times 10^{-2} for real noise. On the other hand, from the asymptotic expansion of the variance we obtain the theoretical minimum error for beta at 10 kpc and optimal orientation. The estimation error in this case is from 10^{-2} to 10^{-3} as beta increases. We show that the results of the estimation error of beta for the 3-parameter space (3D) is consistent with the single-parameter space (1D), which allows us to conclude that beta is decoupled from the others two parameters.

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

As a significant part of post-training of the Large Language Models (LLMs), Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Reward (RLVR) has greatly improved LLMs' reasoning skills. However, some RLVR algorithms, such as GRPO (Group Relative Policy Optimization) and GSPO (Group Sequence Policy Optimization), are observed to suffer from unstable policy updates and low usage of sampling data, respectively. The importance ratio of GRPO is calculated at the token level, which focuses more on optimizing a single token. This will be easily affected by outliers, leading to model training collapse. GSPO proposed the calculation of the response level importance ratio, which solves the problem of high variance and training noise accumulation in the calculation of the GRPO importance ratio. However, since all the response tokens share a common importance ratio, extreme values can easily raise or lower the overall mean, leading to the entire response being mistakenly discarded, resulting in a decrease in the utilization of sampled data. This paper introduces SSPO, which applies sentence-level importance ratio, taking the balance between GRPO and GSPO. SSPO not only avoids training collapse and high variance, but also prevents the whole response tokens from being abandoned by the clipping mechanism. Furthermore, we apply sentence entropy to PPO-CLIP to steadily adjust the clipping bounds, encouraging high-entropy tokens to explore and narrow the clipping range of low-entropy tokens. In particular, SSPO achieves an average score of 46.57 across five datasets, surpassing GRPO (43.01) and GSPO (44.42), and wins state-of-the-art performance on three datasets. These results highlight SSPO's effectiveness in leveraging generated data by taking the essence of GSPO but rejecting its shortcomings.

This paper introduces ReservoirTTA, a novel plug-in framework designed for prolonged test-time adaptation (TTA) in scenarios where the test domain continuously shifts over time, including cases where domains recur or evolve gradually. At its core, ReservoirTTA maintains a reservoir of domain-specialized models -- an adaptive test-time model ensemble -- that both detects new domains via online clustering over style features of incoming samples and routes each sample to the appropriate specialized model, and thereby enables domain-specific adaptation. This multi-model strategy overcomes key limitations of single model adaptation, such as catastrophic forgetting, inter-domain interference, and error accumulation, ensuring robust and stable performance on sustained non-stationary test distributions. Our theoretical analysis reveals key components that bound parameter variance and prevent model collapse, while our plug-in TTA module mitigates catastrophic forgetting of previously encountered domains. Extensive experiments on the classification corruption benchmarks, including ImageNet-C and CIFAR-10/100-C, as well as the CityscapesrightarrowACDC semantic segmentation task, covering recurring and continuously evolving domain shifts, demonstrate that ReservoirTTA significantly improves adaptation accuracy and maintains stable performance across prolonged, recurring shifts, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/LTS5/ReservoirTTA.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

A generative adversarial network (GAN) has been a representative backbone model in generative artificial intelligence (AI) because of its powerful performance in capturing intricate data-generating processes. However, the GAN training is well-known for its notorious training instability, usually characterized by the occurrence of mode collapse. Through the lens of gradients' variance, this work particularly analyzes the training instability and inefficiency in the presence of mode collapse by linking it to multimodality in the target distribution. To ease the raised training issues from severe multimodality, we introduce a novel GAN training framework that leverages a series of tempered distributions produced via convex interpolation. With our newly developed GAN objective function, the generator can learn all the tempered distributions simultaneously, conceptually resonating with the parallel tempering in Statistics. Our simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of our approach over existing popular training strategies in both image and tabular data synthesis. We theoretically analyze that such significant improvement can arise from reducing the variance of gradient estimates by using the tempered distributions. Finally, we further develop a variant of the proposed framework aimed at generating fair synthetic data which is one of the growing interests in the field of trustworthy AI.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

LLM-judged benchmarks are increasingly used to evaluate complex model behaviors, yet their design introduces failure modes absent in conventional ground-truth based benchmarks. We argue that without tight objectives and verifiable constructions, benchmark rankings can produce high-confidence rankings that are in fact largely noise. We introduce two mechanisms to diagnose these issues. Schematic adherence quantifies how much of a judge's overall verdict is explained by the explicit evaluation schema, revealing unexplained variance when judges deviate from their own rubric. Psychometric validity aggregates internal consistency and discriminant validity signals to quantify irreducible uncertainty in any benchmarking run. Applying these tools to Arena-Hard Auto, we find severe schema incoherence and factor collapse across popular judges: for example, unexplained variance exceeding 90 percent for DeepSeek-R1-32B and factor correlations above 0.93 for most criteria. We also show that the ELO-style aggregation used by Arena-Hard Auto collapses and masks genuine ranking uncertainty. Our results highlight design failures that undermine validity and offer actionable principles for building better-scoped, reliability-aware LLM-judged benchmarks. We release our code at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/judgment-to-noise-947D/README.md

Recent studies empirically demonstrate the positive relationship between the transferability of neural networks and the within-class variation of the last layer features. The recently discovered Neural Collapse (NC) phenomenon provides a new perspective of understanding such last layer geometry of neural networks. In this paper, we propose a novel metric, named Variability Collapse Index (VCI), to quantify the variability collapse phenomenon in the NC paradigm. The VCI metric is well-motivated and intrinsically related to the linear probing loss on the last layer features. Moreover, it enjoys desired theoretical and empirical properties, including invariance under invertible linear transformations and numerical stability, that distinguishes it from previous metrics. Our experiments verify that VCI is indicative of the variability collapse and the transferability of pretrained neural networks.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Training deep neural networks--and more recently, large models--demands efficient and scalable optimizers. Adaptive gradient algorithms like Adam, AdamW, and their variants have been central to this task. Despite the development of numerous variance reduction algorithms in the past decade aimed at accelerating stochastic optimization in both convex and nonconvex settings, variance reduction has not found widespread success in training deep neural networks or large language models. Consequently, it has remained a less favored approach in modern AI. In this paper, to unleash the power of variance reduction for efficient training of large models, we propose a unified optimization framework, MARS (Make vAriance Reduction Shine), which reconciles preconditioned gradient methods with variance reduction via a scaled stochastic recursive momentum technique. Within our framework, we introduce three instances of MARS that leverage preconditioned gradient updates based on AdamW, Lion, and Shampoo, respectively. We also draw a connection between our algorithms and existing optimizers. Experimental results on training GPT-2 models indicate that MARS consistently outperforms AdamW by a large margin.

Observing certain patches in an image reduces the uncertainty of others. Their realization lowers the distribution entropy of each remaining patch feature, analogous to collapsing a particle's wave function in quantum mechanics. This phenomenon can intuitively be called patch collapse. To identify which patches are most relied on during a target region's collapse, we learn an autoencoder that softly selects a subset of patches to reconstruct each target patch. Graphing these learned dependencies for each patch's PageRank score reveals the optimal patch order to realize an image. We show that respecting this order benefits various masked image modeling methods. First, autoregressive image generation can be boosted by retraining the state-of-the-art model MAR. Next, we introduce a new setup for image classification by exposing Vision Transformers only to high-rank patches in the collapse order. Seeing 22\% of such patches is sufficient to achieve high accuracy. With these experiments, we propose patch collapse as a novel image modeling perspective that promotes vision efficiency. Our project is available at https://github.com/wguo-ai/CoP .

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Training deep neural networks for classification often includes minimizing the training loss beyond the zero training error point. In this phase of training, a "neural collapse" behavior has been observed: the variability of features (outputs of the penultimate layer) of within-class samples decreases and the mean features of different classes approach a certain tight frame structure. Recent works analyze this behavior via idealized unconstrained features models where all the minimizers exhibit exact collapse. However, with practical networks and datasets, the features typically do not reach exact collapse, e.g., because deep layers cannot arbitrarily modify intermediate features that are far from being collapsed. In this paper, we propose a richer model that can capture this phenomenon by forcing the features to stay in the vicinity of a predefined features matrix (e.g., intermediate features). We explore the model in the small vicinity case via perturbation analysis and establish results that cannot be obtained by the previously studied models. For example, we prove reduction in the within-class variability of the optimized features compared to the predefined input features (via analyzing gradient flow on the "central-path" with minimal assumptions), analyze the minimizers in the near-collapse regime, and provide insights on the effect of regularization hyperparameters on the closeness to collapse. We support our theory with experiments in practical deep learning settings.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are one of the deep generative models that have experienced enormous success over the past decades. However, in practice, they suffer from a problem called posterior collapse, which occurs when the encoder coincides, or collapses, with the prior taking no information from the latent structure of the input data into consideration. In this work, we introduce an inverse Lipschitz neural network into the decoder and, based on this architecture, provide a new method that can control in a simple and clear manner the degree of posterior collapse for a wide range of VAE models equipped with a concrete theoretical guarantee. We also illustrate the effectiveness of our method through several numerical experiments.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Modern deep neural networks have achieved impressive performance on tasks from image classification to natural language processing. Surprisingly, these complex systems with massive amounts of parameters exhibit the same structural properties in their last-layer features and classifiers across canonical datasets when training until convergence. In particular, it has been observed that the last-layer features collapse to their class-means, and those class-means are the vertices of a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF). This phenomenon is known as Neural Collapse (NC). Recent papers have theoretically shown that NC emerges in the global minimizers of training problems with the simplified "unconstrained feature model". In this context, we take a step further and prove the NC occurrences in deep linear networks for the popular mean squared error (MSE) and cross entropy (CE) losses, showing that global solutions exhibit NC properties across the linear layers. Furthermore, we extend our study to imbalanced data for MSE loss and present the first geometric analysis of NC under bias-free setting. Our results demonstrate the convergence of the last-layer features and classifiers to a geometry consisting of orthogonal vectors, whose lengths depend on the amount of data in their corresponding classes. Finally, we empirically validate our theoretical analyses on synthetic and practical network architectures with both balanced and imbalanced scenarios.

In this paper I investigate the effect of random seed selection on the accuracy when using popular deep learning architectures for computer vision. I scan a large amount of seeds (up to 10^4) on CIFAR 10 and I also scan fewer seeds on Imagenet using pre-trained models to investigate large scale datasets. The conclusions are that even if the variance is not very large, it is surprisingly easy to find an outlier that performs much better or much worse than the average.

This paper first answers the question "why do the two most powerful techniques Dropout and Batch Normalization (BN) often lead to a worse performance when they are combined together?" in both theoretical and statistical aspects. Theoretically, we find that Dropout would shift the variance of a specific neural unit when we transfer the state of that network from train to test. However, BN would maintain its statistical variance, which is accumulated from the entire learning procedure, in the test phase. The inconsistency of that variance (we name this scheme as "variance shift") causes the unstable numerical behavior in inference that leads to more erroneous predictions finally, when applying Dropout before BN. Thorough experiments on DenseNet, ResNet, ResNeXt and Wide ResNet confirm our findings. According to the uncovered mechanism, we next explore several strategies that modifies Dropout and try to overcome the limitations of their combination by avoiding the variance shift risks.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) framework is a popular option for training unsupervised generative models, featuring ease of training and latent representation of data. The objective function of VAE does not guarantee to achieve the latter, however, and failure to do so leads to a frequent failure mode called posterior collapse. Even in successful cases, VAEs often result in low-precision reconstructions and generated samples. The introduction of the KL-divergence weight beta can help steer the model clear of posterior collapse, but its tuning is often a trial-and-error process with no guiding metrics. Here we test the idea of using the total VAE loss of generated samples (generated loss) as the proxy metric for generation quality, the related hypothesis that VAE reconstruction from the mean latent vector tends to be a more typical example of its class than the original, and the idea of exploiting this property by augmenting training data with generated variants (augmented training). The results are mixed, but repeated encoding and decoding indeed result in qualitatively and quantitatively more typical examples from both convolutional and fully-connected MNIST VAEs, suggesting that it may be an inherent property of the VAE framework.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks while benefiting from better computational scalability. However, building ensembles of neural networks is a challenging task because, in addition to choosing the right neural architecture or hyperparameters for each member of the ensemble, there is an added cost of training each model. We propose AutoDEUQ, an automated approach for generating an ensemble of deep neural networks. Our approach leverages joint neural architecture and hyperparameter search to generate ensembles. We use the law of total variance to decompose the predictive variance of deep ensembles into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. We show that AutoDEUQ outperforms probabilistic backpropagation, Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, distribution-free ensembles, and hyper ensemble methods on a number of regression benchmarks.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

Vector Quantization (VQ) is a widely used method for converting continuous representations into discrete codes, which has become fundamental in unsupervised representation learning and latent generative models. However, VQ models are often hindered by the problem of representation collapse in the latent space, which leads to low codebook utilization and limits the scalability of the codebook for large-scale training. Existing methods designed to mitigate representation collapse typically reduce the dimensionality of latent space at the expense of model capacity, which do not fully resolve the core issue. In this study, we conduct a theoretical analysis of representation collapse in VQ models and identify its primary cause as the disjoint optimization of the codebook, where only a small subset of code vectors are updated through gradient descent. To address this issue, we propose SimVQ, a novel method which reparameterizes the code vectors through a linear transformation layer based on a learnable latent basis. This transformation optimizes the entire linear space spanned by the codebook, rather than merely updating the code vector selected by the nearest-neighbor search in vanilla VQ models. Although it is commonly understood that the multiplication of two linear matrices is equivalent to applying a single linear layer, our approach works surprisingly well in resolving the collapse issue in VQ models with just one linear layer. We validate the efficacy of SimVQ through extensive experiments across various modalities, including image and audio data with different model architectures. Our code is available at https://github.com/youngsheen/SimVQ.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

There is a recently discovered and intriguing phenomenon called Neural Collapse: at the terminal phase of training a deep neural network for classification, the within-class penultimate feature means and the associated classifier vectors of all flat classes collapse to the vertices of a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF). Recent work has tried to exploit this phenomenon by fixing the related classifier weights to a pre-computed ETF to induce neural collapse and maximize the separation of the learned features when training with imbalanced data. In this work, we propose to fix the linear classifier of a deep neural network to a Hierarchy-Aware Frame (HAFrame), instead of an ETF, and use a cosine similarity-based auxiliary loss to learn hierarchy-aware penultimate features that collapse to the HAFrame. We demonstrate that our approach reduces the mistake severity of the model's predictions while maintaining its top-1 accuracy on several datasets of varying scales with hierarchies of heights ranging from 3 to 12. Code: https://github.com/ltong1130ztr/HAFrame

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops proposed that such loops would lead to a phenomenon termed model collapse, under which performance progressively degrades with each model-data feedback iteration until fitted models become useless. However, those studies largely assumed that new data replace old data over time, where an arguably more realistic assumption is that data accumulate over time. In this paper, we ask: what effect does accumulating data have on model collapse? We empirically study this question by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing the original real data by each generation's synthetic data does indeed tend towards model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating the successive generations of synthetic data alongside the original real data avoids model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures, and hyperparameters. We obtain similar results for deep generative models on other types of real data: diffusion models for molecule conformation generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. To understand why accumulating data can avoid model collapse, we use an analytically tractable framework introduced by prior work in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' outputs. Previous work used this framework to show that if data are replaced, the test error increases with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this argument to prove that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations, meaning model collapse no longer occurs.

Recent advancements in Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) have revolutionized image synthesis and manipulation, raising significant concerns about data misappropriation and intellectual property infringement. While adversarial attacks have been extensively explored as a protective measure against such misuse of generative AI, current approaches are severely limited by their heavy reliance on model-specific knowledge and substantial computational costs. Drawing inspiration from the posterior collapse phenomenon observed in VAE training, we propose the Posterior Collapse Attack (PCA), a novel framework for protecting images from unauthorized manipulation. Through comprehensive theoretical analysis and empirical validation, we identify two distinct collapse phenomena during VAE inference: diffusion collapse and concentration collapse. Based on this discovery, we design a unified loss function that can flexibly achieve both types of collapse through parameter adjustment, each corresponding to different protection objectives in preventing image manipulation. Our method significantly reduces dependence on model-specific knowledge by requiring access to only the VAE encoder, which constitutes less than 4\% of LDM parameters. Notably, PCA achieves prompt-invariant protection by operating on the VAE encoder before text conditioning occurs, eliminating the need for empty prompt optimization required by existing methods. This minimal requirement enables PCA to maintain adequate transferability across various VAE-based LDM architectures while effectively preventing unauthorized image editing. Extensive experiments show PCA outperforms existing techniques in protection effectiveness, computational efficiency (runtime and VRAM), and generalization across VAE-based LDM variants. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhongliangGuo/PosteriorCollapseAttack.

Federated learning algorithms, such as FedAvg, are negatively affected by data heterogeneity and partial client participation. To mitigate the latter problem, global variance reduction methods, like FedVARP, leverage stale model updates for non-participating clients. These methods are effective under homogeneous client participation. Yet, this paper shows that, when some clients participate much less than others, aggregating updates with different levels of staleness can detrimentally affect the training process. Motivated by this observation, we introduce FedStale, a novel algorithm that updates the global model in each round through a convex combination of "fresh" updates from participating clients and "stale" updates from non-participating ones. By adjusting the weight in the convex combination, FedStale interpolates between FedAvg, which only uses fresh updates, and FedVARP, which treats fresh and stale updates equally. Our analysis of FedStale convergence yields the following novel findings: i) it integrates and extends previous FedAvg and FedVARP analyses to heterogeneous client participation; ii) it underscores how the least participating client influences convergence error; iii) it provides practical guidelines to best exploit stale updates, showing that their usefulness diminishes as data heterogeneity decreases and participation heterogeneity increases. Extensive experiments featuring diverse levels of client data and participation heterogeneity not only confirm these findings but also show that FedStale outperforms both FedAvg and FedVARP in many settings.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.

Deep Learning has revolutionized vision via convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and natural language processing via recurrent neural networks (RNNs). However, success stories of Deep Learning with standard feed-forward neural networks (FNNs) are rare. FNNs that perform well are typically shallow and, therefore cannot exploit many levels of abstract representations. We introduce self-normalizing neural networks (SNNs) to enable high-level abstract representations. While batch normalization requires explicit normalization, neuron activations of SNNs automatically converge towards zero mean and unit variance. The activation function of SNNs are "scaled exponential linear units" (SELUs), which induce self-normalizing properties. Using the Banach fixed-point theorem, we prove that activations close to zero mean and unit variance that are propagated through many network layers will converge towards zero mean and unit variance -- even under the presence of noise and perturbations. This convergence property of SNNs allows to (1) train deep networks with many layers, (2) employ strong regularization, and (3) to make learning highly robust. Furthermore, for activations not close to unit variance, we prove an upper and lower bound on the variance, thus, vanishing and exploding gradients are impossible. We compared SNNs on (a) 121 tasks from the UCI machine learning repository, on (b) drug discovery benchmarks, and on (c) astronomy tasks with standard FNNs and other machine learning methods such as random forests and support vector machines. SNNs significantly outperformed all competing FNN methods at 121 UCI tasks, outperformed all competing methods at the Tox21 dataset, and set a new record at an astronomy data set. The winning SNN architectures are often very deep. Implementations are available at: github.com/bioinf-jku/SNNs.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

A range of recent optimizers have emerged that approximate the same "matrix-whitening" transformation in various ways. In this work, we systematically deconstruct such optimizers, aiming to disentangle the key components that explain performance. Across tuned hyperparameters across the board, all flavors of matrix-whitening methods reliably outperform elementwise counterparts, such as Adam. Matrix-whitening is often related to spectral descent -- however, experiments reveal that performance gains are *not explained solely by accurate spectral normalization* -- particularly, SOAP displays the largest per-step gain, even though Muon more accurately descends along the steepest spectral descent direction. Instead, we argue that matrix-whitening serves two purposes, and the variance adaptation component of matrix-whitening is the overlooked ingredient explaining this performance gap. Experiments show that variance-adapted versions of optimizers consistently outperform their sign-descent counterparts, including an adaptive version of Muon. We further ablate variance adaptation strategies, finding that while lookahead style approximations are not as effective, low-rank variance estimators can effectively reduce memory costs without a performance loss.

Representations learned via self-supervised learning (SSL) can be susceptible to dimensional collapse, where the learned representation subspace is of extremely low dimensionality and thus fails to represent the full data distribution and modalities. Dimensional collapse also known as the "underfilling" phenomenon is one of the major causes of degraded performance on downstream tasks. Previous work has investigated the dimensional collapse problem of SSL at a global level. In this paper, we demonstrate that representations can span over high dimensional space globally, but collapse locally. To address this, we propose a method called local dimensionality regularization (LDReg). Our formulation is based on the derivation of the Fisher-Rao metric to compare and optimize local distance distributions at an asymptotically small radius for each data point. By increasing the local intrinsic dimensionality, we demonstrate through a range of experiments that LDReg improves the representation quality of SSL. The results also show that LDReg can regularize dimensionality at both local and global levels.

Recently, a series of papers proposed deep learning-based approaches to sample from unnormalized target densities using controlled diffusion processes. In this work, we identify these approaches as special cases of the Schr\"odinger bridge problem, seeking the most likely stochastic evolution between a given prior distribution and the specified target. We further generalize this framework by introducing a variational formulation based on divergences between path space measures of time-reversed diffusion processes. This abstract perspective leads to practical losses that can be optimized by gradient-based algorithms and includes previous objectives as special cases. At the same time, it allows us to consider divergences other than the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence that is known to suffer from mode collapse. In particular, we propose the so-called log-variance loss, which exhibits favorable numerical properties and leads to significantly improved performance across all considered approaches.

Despite significant progress in model editing methods, their application in real-world scenarios remains challenging as they often cause large language models (LLMs) to collapse. Among them, ROME is particularly concerning, as it could disrupt LLMs with only a single edit. In this paper, we study the root causes of such collapse. Through extensive analysis, we identify two primary factors that contribute to the collapse: i) inconsistent handling of prefixed and unprefixed keys in the parameter update equation may result in very small denominators, causing excessively large parameter updates; ii) the subject of collapse cases is usually the first token, whose unprefixed key distribution significantly differs from the prefixed key distribution in autoregressive transformers, causing the aforementioned issue to materialize. To validate our findings, we propose a simple yet effective approach: uniformly using prefixed keys during editing phase and adding prefixes during testing phase to ensure the consistency between training and testing. The experimental results show that the proposed solution can prevent model collapse while maintaining the effectiveness of the edits.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

We bound the excess risk of interpolating deep linear networks trained using gradient flow. In a setting previously used to establish risk bounds for the minimum ell_2-norm interpolant, we show that randomly initialized deep linear networks can closely approximate or even match known bounds for the minimum ell_2-norm interpolant. Our analysis also reveals that interpolating deep linear models have exactly the same conditional variance as the minimum ell_2-norm solution. Since the noise affects the excess risk only through the conditional variance, this implies that depth does not improve the algorithm's ability to "hide the noise". Our simulations verify that aspects of our bounds reflect typical behavior for simple data distributions. We also find that similar phenomena are seen in simulations with ReLU networks, although the situation there is more nuanced.

Neural collapse (NC) is a phenomenon observed in classification tasks where top-layer representations collapse into their class means, which become equinorm, equiangular and aligned with the classifiers. These behaviors -- associated with generalization and robustness -- would manifest under specific conditions: models are trained towards zero loss, with noise-free labels belonging to balanced classes, which do not outnumber the model's hidden dimension. Recent studies have explored NC in the absence of one or more of these conditions to extend and capitalize on the associated benefits of ideal geometries. Language modeling presents a curious frontier, as training by token prediction constitutes a classification task where none of the conditions exist: the vocabulary is imbalanced and exceeds the embedding dimension; different tokens might correspond to similar contextual embeddings; and large language models (LLMs) in particular are typically only trained for a few epochs. This paper empirically investigates the impact of scaling the architectures and training of causal language models (CLMs) on their progression towards NC. We find that NC properties that develop with scaling are linked to generalization. Moreover, there is evidence of some relationship between NC and generalization independent of scale. Our work therefore underscores the generality of NC as it extends to the novel and more challenging setting of language modeling. Downstream, we seek to inspire further research on the phenomenon to deepen our understanding of LLMs -- and neural networks at large -- and improve existing architectures based on NC-related properties.

Data balancing across multiple modalities and sources appears in various forms in foundation models in machine learning and AI, e.g. in CLIP and DINO. We show that data balancing across modalities and sources actually offers an unsuspected benefit: variance reduction. We present a non-asymptotic statistical bound that quantifies this variance reduction effect and relates it to the eigenvalue decay of Markov operators. Furthermore, we describe how various forms of data balancing in contrastive multimodal learning and self-supervised clustering can be better understood, and even improved upon, owing to our variance reduction viewpoint.

Mirror descent value iteration (MDVI), an abstraction of Kullback-Leibler (KL) and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL), has served as the basis for recent high-performing practical RL algorithms. However, despite the use of function approximation in practice, the theoretical understanding of MDVI has been limited to tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). We study MDVI with linear function approximation through its sample complexity required to identify an varepsilon-optimal policy with probability 1-delta under the settings of an infinite-horizon linear MDP, generative model, and G-optimal design. We demonstrate that least-squares regression weighted by the variance of an estimated optimal value function of the next state is crucial to achieving minimax optimality. Based on this observation, we present Variance-Weighted Least-Squares MDVI (VWLS-MDVI), the first theoretical algorithm that achieves nearly minimax optimal sample complexity for infinite-horizon linear MDPs. Furthermore, we propose a practical VWLS algorithm for value-based deep RL, Deep Variance Weighting (DVW). Our experiments demonstrate that DVW improves the performance of popular value-based deep RL algorithms on a set of MinAtar benchmarks.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

Although deep neural networks achieve tremendous success on various classification tasks, the generalization ability drops sheer when training datasets exhibit long-tailed distributions. One of the reasons is that the learned representations (i.e. features) from the imbalanced datasets are less effective than those from balanced datasets. Specifically, the learned representation under class-balanced distribution will present the Neural Collapse (NC) phenomena. NC indicates the features from the same category are close to each other and from different categories are maximally distant, showing an optimal linear separable state of classification. However, the pattern differs on imbalanced datasets and is partially responsible for the reduced performance of the model. In this work, we propose two explicit feature regularization terms to learn high-quality representation for class-imbalanced data. With the proposed regularization, NC phenomena will appear under the class-imbalanced distribution, and the generalization ability can be significantly improved. Our method is easily implemented, highly effective, and can be plugged into most existing methods. The extensive experimental results on widely-used benchmarks show the effectiveness of our method

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Offline reinforcement learning aims to train agents from pre-collected datasets. However, this comes with the added challenge of estimating the value of behaviors not covered in the dataset. Model-based methods offer a potential solution by training an approximate dynamics model, which then allows collection of additional synthetic data via rollouts in this model. The prevailing theory treats this approach as online RL in an approximate dynamics model, and any remaining performance gap is therefore understood as being due to dynamics model errors. In this paper, we analyze this assumption and investigate how popular algorithms perform as the learned dynamics model is improved. In contrast to both intuition and theory, if the learned dynamics model is replaced by the true error-free dynamics, existing model-based methods completely fail. This reveals a key oversight: The theoretical foundations assume sampling of full horizon rollouts in the learned dynamics model; however, in practice, the number of model-rollout steps is aggressively reduced to prevent accumulating errors. We show that this truncation of rollouts results in a set of edge-of-reach states at which we are effectively ``bootstrapping from the void.'' This triggers pathological value overestimation and complete performance collapse. We term this the edge-of-reach problem. Based on this new insight, we fill important gaps in existing theory, and reveal how prior model-based methods are primarily addressing the edge-of-reach problem, rather than model-inaccuracy as claimed. Finally, we propose Reach-Aware Value Learning (RAVL), a simple and robust method that directly addresses the edge-of-reach problem and hence - unlike existing methods - does not fail as the dynamics model is improved. Code open-sourced at: github.com/anyasims/edge-of-reach.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning due to model overconfidence, often without awareness of their epistemological limits. We hypothesize that ``neural collapse'', a phenomenon affecting in-distribution data for models trained beyond loss convergence, also influences OOD data. To benefit from this interplay, we introduce NECO, a novel post-hoc method for OOD detection, which leverages the geometric properties of ``neural collapse'' and of principal component spaces to identify OOD data. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that NECO achieves state-of-the-art results on both small and large-scale OOD detection tasks while exhibiting strong generalization capabilities across different network architectures. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical explanation for the effectiveness of our method in OOD detection. Code is available at https://gitlab.com/drti/neco

Dropout is a widely utilized regularization technique in the training of neural networks, nevertheless, its underlying mechanism and its impact on achieving good generalization abilities remain poorly understood. In this work, we derive the stochastic modified equations for analyzing the dynamics of dropout, where its discrete iteration process is approximated by a class of stochastic differential equations. In order to investigate the underlying mechanism by which dropout facilitates the identification of flatter minima, we study the noise structure of the derived stochastic modified equation for dropout. By drawing upon the structural resemblance between the Hessian and covariance through several intuitive approximations, we empirically demonstrate the universal presence of the inverse variance-flatness relation and the Hessian-variance relation, throughout the training process of dropout. These theoretical and empirical findings make a substantial contribution to our understanding of the inherent tendency of dropout to locate flatter minima.

Federated learning and gossip learning are emerging methodologies designed to mitigate data privacy concerns by retaining training data on client devices and exclusively sharing locally-trained machine learning (ML) models with others. The primary distinction between the two lies in their approach to model aggregation: federated learning employs a centralized parameter server, whereas gossip learning adopts a fully decentralized mechanism, enabling direct model exchanges among nodes. This decentralized nature often positions gossip learning as less efficient compared to federated learning. Both methodologies involve a critical step: computing a representation of received ML models and integrating this representation into the existing model. Conventionally, this representation is derived by averaging the received models, exemplified by the FedAVG algorithm. Our findings suggest that this averaging approach inherently introduces a potential delay in model convergence. We identify the underlying cause and refer to it as the "vanishing variance" problem, where averaging across uncorrelated ML models undermines the optimal variance established by the Xavier weight initialization. Unlike federated learning where the central server ensures model correlation, and unlike traditional gossip learning which circumvents this problem through model partitioning and sampling, our research introduces a variance-corrected model averaging algorithm. This novel algorithm preserves the optimal variance needed during model averaging, irrespective of network topology or non-IID data distributions. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that our approach enables gossip learning to achieve convergence efficiency comparable to that of federated learning.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

The ability of Variational Autoencoders to learn disentangled representations has made them appealing for practical applications. However, their mean representations, which are generally used for downstream tasks, have recently been shown to be more correlated than their sampled counterpart, on which disentanglement is usually measured. In this paper, we refine this observation through the lens of selective posterior collapse, which states that only a subset of the learned representations, the active variables, is encoding useful information while the rest (the passive variables) is discarded. We first extend the existing definition to multiple data examples and show that active variables are equally disentangled in mean and sampled representations. Based on this extension and the pre-trained models from disentanglement lib, we then isolate the passive variables and show that they are responsible for the discrepancies between mean and sampled representations. Specifically, passive variables exhibit high correlation scores with other variables in mean representations while being fully uncorrelated in sampled ones. We thus conclude that despite what their higher correlation might suggest, mean representations are still good candidates for downstream tasks applications. However, it may be beneficial to remove their passive variables, especially when used with models sensitive to correlated features.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are one of the powerful unsupervised learning frameworks in NLP for latent representation learning and latent-directed generation. The classic optimization goal of VAEs is to maximize the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBo), which consists of a conditional likelihood for generation and a negative Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for regularization. In practice, optimizing ELBo often leads the posterior distribution of all samples converge to the same degenerated local optimum, namely posterior collapse or KL vanishing. There are effective ways proposed to prevent posterior collapse in VAEs, but we observe that they in essence make trade-offs between posterior collapse and hole problem, i.e., mismatch between the aggregated posterior distribution and the prior distribution. To this end, we introduce new training objectives to tackle both two problems through a novel regularization based on the probabilistic density gap between the aggregated posterior distribution and the prior distribution. Through experiments on language modeling, latent space visualization and interpolation, we show that our proposed method can solve both problems effectively and thus outperforms the existing methods in latent-directed generation. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to jointly solve the hole problem and the posterior collapse.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

While Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can enhance LLM reasoning, its training process poses a critical risk: entropy collapse. This phenomenon is a rapid loss of policy diversity, stemming from the exploration-exploitation imbalance and leading to a lack of generalization. Recent entropy-intervention methods aim to prevent entropy collapse, yet their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this paper, we conduct a quantitative analysis to reveal token-level entropy changes and how existing entropy intervention methods help avoid entropy collapse. Our findings point out a fundamental limitation of existing methods: they attempt to control entropy dynamics indirectly. By only affecting related factors, such as the advantage signal and generation probability, their effectiveness is inherently limited and could potentially fail. To address this limitation, we introduce an entropy-change-aware reweighting scheme, namely Stabilizing Token-level Entropy-changE via Reweighting (STEER), that adaptively stabilizes entropy dynamics through fine-grained token-level adjustments. Our approach mitigates over-exploitation while fostering robust exploration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STEER significantly mitigates entropy collapse, stabilizes entropy dynamics, and achieves stronger downstream performance across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks \footnote{Our code is available at https://github.com/zz-haooo/STEER.

This paper aims to overcome a major obstacle in scaling RL for reasoning with LLMs, namely the collapse of policy entropy. Such phenomenon is consistently observed across vast RL runs without entropy intervention, where the policy entropy dropped sharply at the early training stage, this diminished exploratory ability is always accompanied with the saturation of policy performance. In practice, we establish a transformation equation R=-a*e^H+b between entropy H and downstream performance R. This empirical law strongly indicates that, the policy performance is traded from policy entropy, thus bottlenecked by its exhaustion, and the ceiling is fully predictable H=0, R=-a+b. Our finding necessitates entropy management for continuous exploration toward scaling compute for RL. To this end, we investigate entropy dynamics both theoretically and empirically. Our derivation highlights that, the change in policy entropy is driven by the covariance between action probability and the change in logits, which is proportional to its advantage when using Policy Gradient-like algorithms. Empirical study shows that, the values of covariance term and entropy differences matched exactly, supporting the theoretical conclusion. Moreover, the covariance term stays mostly positive throughout training, further explaining why policy entropy would decrease monotonically. Through understanding the mechanism behind entropy dynamics, we motivate to control entropy by restricting the update of high-covariance tokens. Specifically, we propose two simple yet effective techniques, namely Clip-Cov and KL-Cov, which clip and apply KL penalty to tokens with high covariances respectively. Experiments show that these methods encourage exploration, thus helping policy escape entropy collapse and achieve better downstream performance.

Vector Quantisation (VQ) is experiencing a comeback in machine learning, where it is increasingly used in representation learning. However, optimizing the codevectors in existing VQ-VAE is not entirely trivial. A problem is codebook collapse, where only a small subset of codevectors receive gradients useful for their optimisation, whereas a majority of them simply ``dies off'' and is never updated or used. This limits the effectiveness of VQ for learning larger codebooks in complex computer vision tasks that require high-capacity representations. In this paper, we present a simple alternative method for online codebook learning, Clustering VQ-VAE (CVQ-VAE). Our approach selects encoded features as anchors to update the ``dead'' codevectors, while optimising the codebooks which are alive via the original loss. This strategy brings unused codevectors closer in distribution to the encoded features, increasing the likelihood of being chosen and optimized. We extensively validate the generalization capability of our quantiser on various datasets, tasks (e.g. reconstruction and generation), and architectures (e.g. VQ-VAE, VQGAN, LDM). Our CVQ-VAE can be easily integrated into the existing models with just a few lines of code.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have displayed considerable promise in graph representation learning across various applications. The core learning process requires the initialization of model weight matrices within each GNN layer, which is typically accomplished via classic initialization methods such as Xavier initialization. However, these methods were originally motivated to stabilize the variance of hidden embeddings and gradients across layers of Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to avoid vanishing gradients and maintain steady information flow. In contrast, within the GNN context classical initializations disregard the impact of the input graph structure and message passing on variance. In this paper, we analyze the variance of forward and backward propagation across GNN layers and show that the variance instability of GNN initializations comes from the combined effect of the activation function, hidden dimension, graph structure and message passing. To better account for these influence factors, we propose a new initialization method for Variance Instability Reduction within GNN Optimization (Virgo), which naturally tends to equate forward and backward variances across successive layers. We conduct comprehensive experiments on 15 datasets to show that Virgo can lead to superior model performance and more stable variance at initialization on node classification, link prediction and graph classification tasks. Codes are in https://github.com/LspongebobJH/virgo_icml2023.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in automating the process of neural architecture design, and the Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS) method makes the process available within a few GPU days. However, the performance of DARTS is often observed to collapse when the number of search epochs becomes large. Meanwhile, lots of "{\em skip-connect}s" are found in the selected architectures. In this paper, we claim that the cause of the collapse is that there exists overfitting in the optimization of DARTS. Therefore, we propose a simple and effective algorithm, named "DARTS+", to avoid the collapse and improve the original DARTS, by "early stopping" the search procedure when meeting a certain criterion. We also conduct comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets and different search spaces and show the effectiveness of our DARTS+ algorithm, and DARTS+ achieves 2.32% test error on CIFAR10, 14.87% on CIFAR100, and 23.7% on ImageNet. We further remark that the idea of "early stopping" is implicitly included in some existing DARTS variants by manually setting a small number of search epochs, while we give an {\em explicit} criterion for "early stopping".

We introduce OpenRAND, a C++17 library aimed at facilitating reproducible scientific research through the generation of statistically robust and yet replicable random numbers. OpenRAND accommodates single and multi-threaded applications on CPUs and GPUs and offers a simplified, user-friendly API that complies with the C++ standard's random number engine interface. It is portable: it functions seamlessly as a lightweight, header-only library, making it adaptable to a wide spectrum of software and hardware platforms. It is statistically robust: a suite of built-in tests ensures no pattern exists within single or multiple streams. Despite the simplicity and portability, it is remarkably performant-matching and sometimes even outperforming native libraries by a significant margin. Our tests, including a Brownian walk simulation, affirm its reproducibility and highlight its computational efficiency, outperforming CUDA's cuRAND by up to 1.8 times.

Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area. Portfolio construction is a process of choosing a group of stocks and investing in them optimally to maximize the return while minimizing the risk. Since the time when Markowitz proposed the Modern Portfolio Theory, several advancements have happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. An investor can get the best benefit out of the stock market if the investor invests in an efficient portfolio and could take the buy or sell decision in advance, by estimating the future asset value of the portfolio with a high level of precision. In this project, we have built an efficient portfolio and to predict the future asset value by means of individual stock price prediction of the stocks in the portfolio. As part of building an efficient portfolio we have studied multiple portfolio optimization methods beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built the minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the five chosen sectors by using past daily stock prices over the past five years as the training data, and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. A comparative study of minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio with equal weight portfolio is done by backtesting.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Sampling-based algorithms, which eliminate ''unimportant'' computations during forward and/or back propagation (BP), offer potential solutions to accelerate neural network training. However, since sampling introduces approximations to training, such algorithms may not consistently maintain accuracy across various tasks. In this work, we introduce a variance-controlled adaptive sampling (VCAS) method designed to accelerate BP. VCAS computes an unbiased stochastic gradient with fine-grained layerwise importance sampling in data dimension for activation gradient calculation and leverage score sampling in token dimension for weight gradient calculation. To preserve accuracy, we control the additional variance by learning the sample ratio jointly with model parameters during training. We assessed VCAS on multiple fine-tuning and pre-training tasks in both vision and natural language domains. On all the tasks, VCAS can preserve the original training loss trajectory and validation accuracy with an up to 73.87% FLOPs reduction of BP and 49.58% FLOPs reduction of the whole training process. The implementation is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/VCAS .

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

We study regret minimization for reinforcement learning (RL) in Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with context in hindsight. We design a novel model-based algorithmic framework which can be instantiated with both a model-optimistic and a value-optimistic solver. We prove an O(mathsf{Var^star M Gamma S A K}) regret bound where O hides logarithm factors, M is the number of contexts, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, K is the number of episodes, Gamma le S is the maximum transition degree of any state-action pair, and Var^star is a variance quantity describing the determinism of the LMDP. The regret bound only scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound for LMDP. This is also the first problem-dependent regret bound for LMDP. Key in our proof is an analysis of the total variance of alpha vectors (a generalization of value functions), which is handled with a truncation method. We complement our positive result with a novel Omega(mathsf{Var^star M S A K}) regret lower bound with Gamma = 2, which shows our upper bound minimax optimal when Gamma is a constant for the class of variance-bounded LMDPs. Our lower bound relies on new constructions of hard instances and an argument inspired by the symmetrization technique from theoretical computer science, both of which are technically different from existing lower bound proof for MDPs, and thus can be of independent interest.

Score distillation has emerged as one of the most prevalent approaches for text-to-3D asset synthesis. Essentially, score distillation updates 3D parameters by lifting and back-propagating scores averaged over different views. In this paper, we reveal that the gradient estimation in score distillation is inherent to high variance. Through the lens of variance reduction, the effectiveness of SDS and VSD can be interpreted as applications of various control variates to the Monte Carlo estimator of the distilled score. Motivated by this rethinking and based on Stein's identity, we propose a more general solution to reduce variance for score distillation, termed Stein Score Distillation (SSD). SSD incorporates control variates constructed by Stein identity, allowing for arbitrary baseline functions. This enables us to include flexible guidance priors and network architectures to explicitly optimize for variance reduction. In our experiments, the overall pipeline, dubbed SteinDreamer, is implemented by instantiating the control variate with a monocular depth estimator. The results suggest that SSD can effectively reduce the distillation variance and consistently improve visual quality for both object- and scene-level generation. Moreover, we demonstrate that SteinDreamer achieves faster convergence than existing methods due to more stable gradient updates.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Inducing and leveraging sparse activations during training and inference is a promising avenue for improving the computational efficiency of deep networks, which is increasingly important as network sizes continue to grow and their application becomes more widespread. Here we use the large width Gaussian process limit to analyze the behaviour, at random initialization, of nonlinear activations that induce sparsity in the hidden outputs. A previously unreported form of training instability is proven for arguably two of the most natural candidates for hidden layer sparsification; those being a shifted ReLU (phi(x)=max(0, x-tau) for tauge 0) and soft thresholding (phi(x)=0 for |x|letau and x-sign(x)tau for |x|>tau). We show that this instability is overcome by clipping the nonlinear activation magnitude, at a level prescribed by the shape of the associated Gaussian process variance map. Numerical experiments verify the theory and show that the proposed magnitude clipped sparsifying activations can be trained with training and test fractional sparsity as high as 85\% while retaining close to full accuracy.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Large language models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention due to their impressive general capabilities across diverse downstream tasks. However, without domain-specific optimization, they often underperform on specialized knowledge benchmarks and even produce hallucination. Recent studies show that strategically infusing domain knowledge during pretraining can substantially improve downstream performance. A critical challenge lies in balancing this infusion trade-off: injecting too little domain-specific data yields insufficient specialization, whereas excessive infusion triggers catastrophic forgetting of previously acquired knowledge. In this work, we focus on the phenomenon of memory collapse induced by over-infusion. Through systematic experiments, we make two key observations, i.e. 1) Critical collapse point: each model exhibits a threshold beyond which its knowledge retention capabilities sharply degrade. 2) Scale correlation: these collapse points scale consistently with the model's size. Building on these insights, we propose a knowledge infusion scaling law that predicts the optimal amount of domain knowledge to inject into large LLMs by analyzing their smaller counterparts. Extensive experiments across different model sizes and pertaining token budgets validate both the effectiveness and generalizability of our scaling law.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence, an extension of weak convergence that compares a statistic or process to a sequence of evolving processes. Relative weak convergence retains the essential consequences of classical weak convergence and coincides with it under stationarity. Crucially, it applies in general non-stationary settings where classical weak convergence fails. We establish concrete relative CLTs for random vectors and empirical processes, along with sequential, weighted, and bootstrap variants, that parallel the state-of-the-art in stationary settings. Our framework and results offer simple, plug-in replacements for classical CLTs whenever stationarity is untenable, as illustrated by applications in nonparametric trend estimation and hypothesis testing.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta = -0.9224, CI: [-0.9727, -0.8571]). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio = 0.9061, p = 0.504). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.

Training deep generative models like Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) is often hindered by the need to backpropagate gradients through the stochastic sampling of their latent variables, a process that inherently introduces estimation variance, which can slow convergence and degrade performance. In this paper, we propose a new perspective that sidesteps this problem, which we call Silent Gradients. Instead of improving stochastic estimators, we leverage specific decoder architectures to analytically compute the expected ELBO, yielding a gradient with zero variance. We first provide a theoretical foundation for this method and demonstrate its superiority over existing estimators in a controlled setting with a linear decoder. To generalize our approach for practical use with complex, expressive decoders, we introduce a novel training dynamic that uses the exact, zero-variance gradient to guide the early stages of encoder training before annealing to a standard stochastic estimator. Our experiments show that this technique consistently improves the performance of established baselines, including reparameterization, Gumbel-Softmax, and REINFORCE, across multiple datasets. This work opens a new direction for training generative models by combining the stability of analytical computation with the expressiveness of deep, nonlinear architecture.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

Machine learning models are often tuned by nesting optimization of model weights inside the optimization of hyperparameters. We give a method to collapse this nested optimization into joint stochastic optimization of weights and hyperparameters. Our process trains a neural network to output approximately optimal weights as a function of hyperparameters. We show that our technique converges to locally optimal weights and hyperparameters for sufficiently large hypernetworks. We compare this method to standard hyperparameter optimization strategies and demonstrate its effectiveness for tuning thousands of hyperparameters.

Designing an optimum portfolio for allocating suitable weights to its constituent assets so that the return and risk associated with the portfolio are optimized is a computationally hard problem. The seminal work of Markowitz that attempted to solve the problem by estimating the future returns of the stocks is found to perform sub-optimally on real-world stock market data. This is because the estimation task becomes extremely challenging due to the stochastic and volatile nature of stock prices. This work illustrates three approaches to portfolio design minimizing the risk, optimizing the risk, and assigning equal weights to the stocks of a portfolio. Thirteen critical sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are first chosen. Three portfolios are designed following the above approaches choosing the top ten stocks from each sector based on their free-float market capitalization. The portfolios are designed using the historical prices of the stocks from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022. The portfolios are evaluated on the stock price data from Jan 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are compared, and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.